An economic evaluation of US tariffs

Policymakers make complex trade-offs when considering tariffs—while they can generate government revenue and encourage the consumption of locally produced goods, they can also lead to higher consumer prices and may negatively impact economic growth.

The overall economic effect of President Trump's 2025 tariffs remains unclear

Researchers from UCLA and Yale found that tariff revenue and gains to US producers largely offset importers' costs—but the broader picture is murkier, as the trade deficit rose, manufacturing jobs declined, and 90% of tariff costs were passed through to importers rather than absorbed by foreign exporters.

Tariffs once fueled the US economy, historically serving as a primary source of revenue and a means to protect domestic industries.

How do tariffs work?

This brief animated video from Time walks through a simple example of a tariff on a single good, illustrating how this would affect the market for the good—both domestically and abroad—and who would eventually bear the cost of the tariff.

Listen to a podcast episode that outlines 250 years of world trade history.

Track how American tariffs have impacted different countries and industries.

Tariffs are taxes levied on goods imported from abroad.

Read an overview of US tariff policy before the second Trump Administration

This comprehensive report from the Congressional Research Service explores the evolving role of tariffs—from a major source of government revenue to a tool for trade and foreign policy—providing insights into current practices, legal foundations, and global trade dynamics.

A trade war is an economic conflict where nations impose tariffs or other trade barriers on each other in retaliation for similar actions.

See a chart showing how US tariff revenue has grown in recent years.

The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act—which was passed during the Great Depression with the goal of reviving domestic industry—is among the most famous pieces of economic legislation in US history.

Tariffs are typically paid by the importing company or organization to the US Treasury.

Behind the scenes on tariff politics

Economist Gene Grossman joined the Trade Talks Podcast to discuss why tariffs really happen. The episode digs into how voters, politicians, lobbyists, and even campaign cash can affect when protectionist trade policies are put forward. Produced in 2019, the podcast also discusses how populist trade policies and identity politics accounted for Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 Presidential election.

Revenue from tariffs goes to the US Treasury's general fund.

Trump's 2025 tariffs represent a significant break from the rules-based trade order

The Trump administration imposed broad tariffs on other countries outside WTO rules in 2025, claiming that those countries had long violated trade agreements and that the US was simply leveling the playing field.

President Trump's 2025 Tariffs added less inflationary pressure to the economy than expected in their first year

A year after the so-called "Liberation Day" in April 2025, tariffs have had a milder effect on inflation than feared—core goods prices have added only about 0.2% to the headline Consumer Price Index—but persistent policy uncertainty has rattled small business owners, who say the constant back-and-forth makes long-term planning difficult.

Auto and consumer goods companies absorbed billions in costs due to President Trump's 2025 tariffs.

The history of tariffs stretches back to ancient Rome and Greece, where taxes were levied on imported grain and textiles to control trade.

Explore the "winners and losers" of the Trump administration's H-1B visa fee

In this episode, experts discuss the rationale behind the new $100K fee, citing concerns about abuse of the H-1B program. Some economists warn that it could spur offshoring, reduce innovation, and create ripple effects on wages and talent supply.

Trade between the US and China has significantly increased in recent decades.

Does minimum wage hurt workers?

Many economists traditionally believed raising the minimum wage hurt workers more than helped them. They argued that doing so would lead to job losses believing that if something is more expensive (like labor), people (like business owners) would want to buy less of it. However, recent research suggests otherwise.

The Supreme Court ruled in February 2026 that Trump's emergency tariff powers didn't extend to imposing tariffs

In a 6-3 decision, the court held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act—a 1977 law granting the president authority to regulate commerce during national emergencies—does not authorise the president to unilaterally impose tariffs, a power the Constitution reserves to Congress.

Study shows H-1B visas depress wages and reduce consumer tech costs

A paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research found that without H-1B workers, American computer scientists would earn 2.6% to 5.1% more and domestic employment could rise by 11%, but consumers would pay more for advanced technology, and output would decrease.

The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and its successor, the WTO, was formed to reduce trade barriers between nations.

The US dollar has served as the world's reserve currency for 80 years—but is its dominance coming to an end?

Since the establishment of the Bretton Woods economic system, about 90% of global foreign exchange transactions have involved USD. Although no viable alternative exists yet, the dollar's share of central bank reserves has decreased from 73% to 58% from 2001 to 2024, and President Trump's 2025 tariffs have sped up this trend.

Interest rates have historically been an indicator of the US economy's overall health.

Some economists argue that the national debt is not a critical concern.

Some scholars consider the Bretton Woods system one of the best foreign policy decisions in US history

A survey of historians by the Council on Foreign Relations ranked the creation of the Bretton Woods system among the top 10 foreign policy decisions in US history, highlighting its role in establishing postwar stability, prosperity, and decades of economic growth.

Trump's H-1B fee hike could reshape US industries and global talent flows

Analysts warn the new H-1B fee could trigger labor shortages in tech, medicine, and universities; push firms to offshore more work; and drive skilled Indian workers and students toward other countries—weakening America's innovation edge.

Some argue that the rising US national debt has become more important in recent months.

AI investment may be the next major economic bubble

A video examines the massive surge in AI spending—forecast to hit $500B by 2026—and how this may be propping up a fragile US economy. Experts warn that if AI investment slows or under-delivers, the consequences could be felt in markets, jobs and growth.

In 2025, the US credit rating was downgraded over concerns about the debt-to-GDP ratio.

The global economy runs on US dollars, with nearly 90% of international trade in 2019 being processed in US dollars.

The Trump administration said the new H‑1B fee curbs abuse but still attracts top talent

In announcing a fee on new H‑1B petitions, the Trump administration claimed the visa was exploited to replace American workers and suppress wages. Officials argued that a steep fee would deter abuse while still allowing employers to bring in the "best of the best" temporary foreign talent.

Ranking the world’s economies: 1980 vs. 2025

The US remains the world’s largest economy, having increased its annual gross domestic product from $2.9T in 1980 to $30.6T in 2025. In 1980, China ranked seventh globally with a GDP of $304B. In 2025, China ranked second with a GDP of $19.4T.

British economist John Maynard Keynes originally proposed a global currency called the bancor.

Government shutdowns can cost the US economy billions

The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the 2018-19 shutdown reduced economic output by about $11B, including a permanent loss of roughly $3B

How Taiwan residents view China and the US

There is widespread support in Taiwan for increased economic and political ties with the US, compared to China. This deep dive of data from the Pew Research Center breaks down how various segments of Taiwan's population perceive the US and China individually and among other Asia-Pacific countries.

The GATT and its successor, the WTO, were established to lower trade barriers

Signed in 1947, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade began systematically reducing tariffs and trade barriers among member nations. In 1995, it was replaced by the World Trade Organization, which expanded those rules and established a formal dispute settlement system.

The Tariff Act of 1789 was one of America's first acts.

Commonly referred to as the 'bank bailout,' the Troubled Asset Relief Program disbursed $443B in an attempt to keep the financial system solvent.

Watch this video to learn how US tax brackets actually work.

Despite the Supreme Court ruling that President Donald Trump's 2025 tariffs were unconstitutional, billions of dollars in refunds remain unresolved

Over 2,000 lawsuits seeking refunds have been filed by major companies, including FedEx and Costco, but CBP says its systems can't handle the volume. Interest on unpaid refunds is accruing at an estimated $650M per month.

The monthly US employment report is eagerly anticipated by Wall Street and has significant impacts on markets.

US state economies compared to entire countries

This map compares US state economies by their gross domestic product to that of a similarly sized country. For instance, California has the largest state economy in the US, with a GDP nearly equal to that of India, the fifth-largest economy in the world. Click here to see how the rest of the states compare.

John Maynard Keynes was one of the most influential economists of the 20th century

Keynes influenced economic thought by arguing that governments should spend to stabilize economies during downturns. His ideas shaped the postwar international order and remain central to modern economic policy debates.

Some argue that restricting illegal immigration would raise wages for lower-income American workers

The Heritage Foundation argues that illegal immigrants' willingness to work for below-market wages suppresses wages for low-skilled American workers—and that reducing illegal immigration would increase wages and job opportunities, particularly for workers without a college degree.

See a breakdown of how each country contributes to the world's $126T economy.

The Bretton Woods economic order was built on Keynesian principles

Keynesian economics suggests that governments should actively manage economies to prevent downturns, promote employment, and regulate markets. The Bretton Woods institutions were created based on this belief that coordinated public intervention could prevent the economic crises of the 1930s.

Fast fashion companies such as Temu and Shein often took advantage of the de minimis exemption, a US tariff loophole that ended in 2025.