Interest rates have historically been an indicator of the US economy's overall health.

Periodically, the Federal Open Market Committee decides whether to raise, hold, or lower the federal funds rate

The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which banks lend their excess funds through the Fed. This influences what banks are willing to pay consumers for their deposits in savings and CD accounts. Typically, the higher the federal funds rate, the higher the interest rates on CDs.

The Federal Open Market Committee is a 12-member voting body that sits within the Fed

The committee meets every six weeks to decide whether to maintain, raise, or lower the federal funds rate, which determines all lending costs in the US. It consists of the seven permanent central board members, the president of the New York Fed, and four rotating heads of the other 11 regional banks.

The Federal Reserve's decisions can impact your money

Car loans, mortgages, business investments—these and more can be drastically impacted by the adjustment of the Federal Reserve’s federal funds rate. Alternatively, savers can earn higher, low-risk yields on their savings when the Fed’s target rate is higher.

The Fed operates within the open market as a competitive bidder of interest rates

Because it’s viewed as a risk-free platform to earn interest, whatever rate it sets becomes the default benchmark. To maintain its target rate prescribed by the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed has various tools it offers both commercial banks and home loan institutions.

Raising interest rates can help control inflation

While controlling a complex and dynamic economy is difficult, interest rates—more specifically, the rate at which banks lend each other money overnight—are a powerful tool. Generally, raising the rate makes purchases more expensive and cools an overheated economy.

The Federal Reserve follows the health of the US economy by tracking the money supply

That includes all of the physical and electronic money in circulation. It tracks not only US coins and bills, but also the money that moves through bank deposits. The Fed uses metrics called trackers to follow different types of transactions through the money supply.

'Floating rate' loans periodically adjust their interest rates in accordance with economic conditions

When the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in 2022 to combat inflation, interest payments borrowers owed to private credit lenders increased accordingly. Private credit funds benefited as loan returns increased, making the asset class attractive to investors at the time.

The CME FedWatch Tool predicts the likelihood of future rate changes

It's based on federal fund futures contract prices. At a Fed meeting in July 2024, for instance, Chair Jerome Powell once again decided not to lower rates, though he said cuts could be on the table in September.

The two-day marathon meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee follow a logical process of information sharing

In a stately room in the Eccles Building in Washington, DC, the 17 participants of the FOMC and their aides report on economic conditions and decide monetary policy.

No institution wields more power in US finance than the Federal Reserve, the central bank of the US—but opinion polls indicate that most Americans don't know what it does.

The Federal Reserve can set interest rates below zero

Interest rates, the cost of borrowing money, are the primary tool the Federal Reserve uses to control inflation. During periods of deflation, setting interest rates below zero penalizes saving, encourages banks to lend more and moves more cash through the economy.

The Fed can use quantitative easing to stimulate growth once it has lowered the federal funds rate as far as it can go

This involves purchasing large-scale assets from banks beyond just Treasury bills and bonds. This effectively gives banks much more liquidity, with the hope that they will actively lend it out at cheaper rates and expand the economy. But quantitative easing runs the risk of sparking inflation.

US inflation can generally be split into to two periods—before and after the Federal Reserve

A central bank itself does not mean significant inflation will occur, but economists generally point to factors like two world wars and the printing of money to finance the US federal deficit as primary drivers of price increases.

The Federal Reserve targets 2% inflation

It’s an arbitrary number originating from an offhand comment made by a New Zealand policymaker. The real objective is to maintain predictable prices for businesses and families to plan around while avoiding the dangers of deflation.

Central bank independence is correlated with lower inflation on average

Executives may seek to influence the central bank to reduce interest rates for political points. Since its creation in the early 20th century, the US' Federal Reserve saw the most interactions from the president during the Nixon and Ford administrations.

How interest rates affect homebuying

Rising interest rates impact every aspect of buying a home. This five-minute article gives a high-level overview of the relationship between the housing market and interest rates.

In 2023, the US money supply fell at its fastest rate since the 1930s

The money supply tracks how much cash, as well as electronic funds like savings accounts, is circulating through the economy. And a downward turn can be a bad sign.

During COVID-19, the Fed made drastic moves in attempts to shore up the US economy called quantitative easing

The Fed took an aggressive approach to help the US economy during COVID-19 beyond standard monetary levers, including broad purchases of mortgage-backed securities, Treasury securities, and more.

The Federal Reserve didn't institute an official no comment period before meetings until 2011

Although Fed governors have largely practiced some version of a blackout period before Federal Open Market Committee meetings where the board decides where interest rates should be since the 1980s, the official blackout period wasn't formalized until 2011. During the blackout, members of the Federal Reserve generally aren't allowed to speak publicly on macroeconomic or monetary policy in order to avoid any confusion over the board's decisions.

Bond yields are the returns investors earn from a bond's interest—and they're a key economic barometer.

Average three-month CD rates reached a historical high of 18.65% in December 1980

Comparatively, average three-month CD rates reached a low of 0.09% in June 2021 amid the economic turmoil of the COVID-19 pandemic. When inflation began to rise in 2022, the Fed began initiating rate hikes to incentivize saving.

Of the 12 voting policymakers at every Federal Open Market Committee meeting, 4 are present on a rotating basis

To allow for diverse regional perspectives in the votes on monetary policy, heads of regional banks hold voting power on two- or three-year cycles.

The Federal Reserve is the most powerful financial institution in the US

The Fed controls the money supply, determines interest rates, and regulates the banking system. Established in 1913 after a volatile series of financial panics, the central bank has managed to retain its legitimacy despite broad critiques against its obscure and independent decision process.

Investors collectively own $28T in US Treasury securities

The 10-year Treasury yield is a central measure of the health of the economy, shaping how much both the government pays on its debt and the cost of borrowing for the private sector. This explainer provides stats and explainers on the important metric.

In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed began a program of quantitative easing

This program injected trillions of dollars of new money into financial markets to stimulate the economy. The move catalyzed an 11-year bull run and was repeated during the pandemic. Experts argue such power could worsen wealth inequality and contribute to bubbles in housing and finance.

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon in which consumers see a broad rise in the prices of goods and services across the economy over time

Sustained periods of inflation are often caused by central bank policies including low interest rates or increased money supply. With more money chasing the same number of goods and services, prices tend to rise and the value of a single dollar drops.

What’s the outlook for CD rates in 2025?

The federal funds rate can have a big impact on CD interest rates. That means it also affects the amount of money any given CD can earn you. To learn more about how CD rates will look in 2025, and how recent rate cuts correlate to that, read this article.

Economists define deflation as a sustained decline in prices across an economy

Deflationary periods are characterized by broad, significant price declines. The Federal Reserve can monitor deflation by tracking prices through price indexes, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which characterizes the average costs for consumers each month.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases a monthly 'jobs report' that tracks the unemployment rate, the number of Americans currently on payroll, and more.

While the Fed is involved in issuing new generations of cash, the way it adds to the money supply does not involve printers

The majority of money in circulation is credit, not cash. This credit, which acts similarly to direct deposit from employers, is added to bank accounts by the Federal Reserve. The Fed also employs tools like the federal funds rate and open market operations to expand or contract credit.

The Federal Reserve fought the Great Recession primarily with quantitative easing and repurchasing agreements.

Some economists argue the national debt is not a critical concern

The US has the largest national debt and one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios. These vitals have long been considered a sign of poor fiscal health, but economists are beginning to shift their attention to interest rates to evaluate national debt.

Read former Fed chair Ben Bernanke's 2002 speech about preventing deflation

Very low inflation rates in the early 2000s in the United States and a worsening recession in Japan sparked some domestic concern over the threat of deflation. While Bernanke wasn't Chair at the time of the speech, he emphasized the Fed's role in preventing deflation.

The central bank was designed to operate free of short-term political influence to prevent the Fed from making disastrous policy decisions

Although the Fed Chair and the six other Governors of the Board are appointed by the US president and approved by Congress, the Fed is not funded by congressional appropriation, and its board members are appointed to lengthy 14-year terms.

Housing 'starts'— new constructions—signal the health and future of real estate

The Federal Reserve Economic Data, or FRED, tracks monthly “housing starts,” the number of new residential construction projects being built. Some argue this data can serve as an economic barometer.