Experts predict Republicans will gain seats from mid-decade redistricting in 2026

Republicans launched a mid-decade redistricting push in 2025

Beginning in Texas, Republican-controlled legislatures in Missouri, Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina moved to redraw maps before 2030—an uncommon mid-decade effort aimed at securing additional congressional seats.

In 2025, Democratic-led states moved to counter with their own redistricting plans

In response to Republican mid-decade redistricting efforts, Democratic leaders in California, New York, Illinois, and Maryland signaled plans to revisit their own congressional maps.

Track the unusual push for mid-decade redistricting across the US

The National Conference of State Legislatures maintains a live tracker showing where mid-decade congressional redistricting is underway, detailing which states are pursuing new maps, the legislative and constitutional methods being used, and how courts are responding as the 2026 elections approach.

Researchers found that 2020 redistricting tactics created safer districts and reduced competition

Studies of the 2020 redistricting cycle show that map-drawing strategies locked in predictable outcomes. The result was fewer competitive races, more incumbents shielded from challengers, and representatives less responsive to broader voter preferences.

Mid-decade redistricting is historically rare in modern US history

States have generally redrawn districts only once per decade following the census, with mid-decade redistricting occurring infrequently and usually prompted by court orders or unusual political circumstances.

There were fewer competitive districts in 2022 than at any point since 1970

Analysts reported that the 2022 midterms featured the lowest share of competitive congressional districts since 1970, reflecting how modern redistricting has increasingly produced safe seats and reduced voter choice.

Redistricting reshapes political boundaries, usually once a decade after the census

Every 10 years, states redraw congressional and legislative districts based on census data to ensure equal population. Legislatures usually control the process, though some states use independent commissions to curb partisan influence.

Independent redistricting commissions aim to take politics out of the map-drawing process

In several states, citizen or bipartisan panels draw congressional and legislative districts based on neutral criteria like population and geography. Learn more about how these commissions increase competitiveness in elections.

See the most oddly gerrymandered districts in the US

Based on input from redistricting experts and political scientists, this resource identifies and ranks the most extreme congressional gerrymanders of the 2020s, examining how map design, cracking, and packing reduce competition and distort representation across states.

Most US House seats stay with the same party for decades

An analysis by the Pew Research Center shows that since the 1920s, the vast majority of House districts have been consistently won by the same party, with only a small share regularly changing hands. This highlights the large advantage incumbents have in House elections.

Hear how gerrymandering is like 'Moneyball applied to politics'

In a 2016 interview, journalist David Daley explained how Republicans used data-driven targeting after the 2010 census to lock in durable advantages, comparing modern gerrymandering strategies to the analytics revolution in baseball.

Which Senate seats are up for election, and how they are leaning

There are 14 Democratic and 21 Republican Senate seats up for grabs. See the Cook Political Report's continuously updated estimates on how they're leaning.

Red and blue election maps are a modern media invention

The red–blue color scheme used on election night maps emerged in the 20th century as television networks adopted color graphics to make results easier to follow. The association of red with Republicans and blue with Democrats later became standardized.

How algorithmic redistricting works

Computational methods are convincing a number of judges that some state district maps are drawn illegally. Here's a simple overview of how it works.

Can courts end partisan gerrymandering?

This podcast explored whether courts can rein in partisan map-drawing, focusing on North Carolina's 2023 redistricting battle, the Moore v. Harper case, and the controversial "independent state legislature" theory.

As of 2022, Congress was more ideologically polarized than at any point in 50 years

Research from the Pew Research Center indicates that Democrat and Republican lawmakers have become more ideologically unified internally while moving further apart overall—with Republicans shifting to the right faster than Democrats have shifted to the left.

The census reshapes House representation every 10 years

Conducted once every 10 years, the US Census determines how House seats are reapportioned among the states. The 2020 results shifted representation as state population growth and decline altered the geographic balance of political power.

Test your gerrymandering skills with this interactive game

This simulation demonstrates how packing and cracking alter election outcomes. See how shifting district lines can change representation—regardless of the overall makeup of the electorate.

Breaking down the House races

All 435 voting seats in the US House are up for election, but less than 10% of them are competitive. See a breakdown of the races and which way they are leaning here.

Experts believe a Supreme Court ruling on birthright citizenship is likely in 2026

In September 2025, the Trump administration asked the Supreme Court to review lower court rulings striking down its executive order on birthright citizenship. If the court takes the case, a decision is expected by mid-2026.

A 2013 Supreme Court case weakened federal oversight of redistricting

In Shelby County v. Holder, the Supreme Court struck down the Voting Rights Act's preclearance formula, reducing federal oversight of voting laws—including redistricting—and allowing changes to take effect without prior approval.

Breaking down the gubernatorial races

Thirty-six states are holding gubernatorial races this November. Here's a breakdown of which states are holding elections, who is running, and which way the race is leaning.

States are constitutionally mandated to draw their own congressional districts

Under Article I, Section 4 of the US Constitution, state legislatures possess the authority to determine how congressional districts are drawn. However, Congress retains the power to alter these rules if it chooses to.

The 2025-26 Supreme Court docket is poised to reshape presidential power

As the Supreme Court begins a new term, several major cases could define the scope of presidential authority. The court may rule on President Trump's efforts to control state National Guard units, fire independent officials, impose tariffs, and cut congressionally mandated federal spending.

Gerrymandering works through two techniques: cracking opposing voters across districts to dilute their power, and packing them into a few to waste their votes in lopsided majorities.

Cracking and packing are gerrymandering techniques. Cracking splits opposing voters across districts, diluting their power. Packing concentrates their votes into a few districts, wasting them in overwhelming majorities for one party.

The 2024 US presidential election was a breakthrough moment for prediction markets

Founded in 2018 by MIT graduates, Kalshi won a federal appeals court ruling in October 2024 that allowed it to offer election contracts in the US. When prediction markets predicted President Donald Trump's win (more accurately than most polls), prediction markets were thrust into the public eye.

How partisan is your district?

The highly-respected Cook Political Report rates how partisan--and therefore, how safe--every district in the US is. Hover over your home district to see the score.

16 states impose term limits on their legislatures

As of 2025, 16 states limit how long lawmakers can serve, usually capping tenure at eight to 12 years in one chamber or across both chambers combined. Most of these limits stem from a 1990s reform wave aimed at curbing career politicians.

Research shows that termed-out lawmakers become less active

A University of Chicago and Stanford study found that state legislators barred from reelection sponsor fewer bills, serve on fewer committees, and skip more votes. The research suggests lawmakers are more productive when future elections remain possible.

Thomas Hofeller was the GOP strategist known as the 'master of gerrymandering'

Republican consultant Thomas Hofeller quietly shaped US politics for decades by engineering partisan maps nationwide. His files, released after his death, revealed strategies to maximize GOP advantage and diminish Democratic influence.

Critics say that the Electoral College is outdated and favors small states

This article argues that the Electoral College no longer reflects modern democratic norms, disproportionately advantages smaller states, and warrants broader reform and national debate. (Some readers may experience a paywall.)

See who appointed the Supreme Court's 116 throughout its history.

Understanding why Republicans have challenged funding for the NSF

Lack of Congressional support in funding the National Science Foundation has often been justified by the party's interest in cutting federal deficits and reducing waste for seemingly frivolous research projects. However, an analysis of NSF grant data from 1992 to 2018 shows that awards were given to Democratic constituencies at disproportionately higher rates than to Republican ones, despite a lack of evidence of partisanship in proposal reviews. (Some readers may experience a paywall.)

Environmental regulation had bipartisan support in the 1970s

During the 1970s, Democrats and Republicans alike backed landmark environmental laws. Congress passed the Clean Air, Clean Water, and Endangered Species Acts with overwhelming bipartisan majorities—reflecting broad public agreement on protecting the environment.

The 2020 and 2024 elections ranked among the highest-turnout contests in over a century

Voter turnout reached 66% in 2020—the highest since 1908—and 64% in 2024, tied for second-highest with 1960. In 2024, Trump benefited from higher turnout among his prior voters and new voters.

This American Life explored Ohio's gerrymandering battle

In 2022, Ohio lawmakers repeatedly drew congressional districts that the state Supreme Court ruled unconstitutional. This defiance violated a voter-approved reform intended to prohibit partisan gerrymandering.

Congress is passing fewer laws than in previous decades

A Reuters analysis shows that legislative output in the US Congress has declined as polarization deepens, bipartisan cooperation erodes, and lawmakers rely more on sprawling, must-pass spending bills rather than regular lawmaking.

Thousands of state voting changes have been federally blocked since the Voting Rights Act

Since 1965, federal oversight has blocked thousands of state-level voting changes—including redistricting plans—by requiring approval for measures that could affect minority representation, a process scaled back by the Supreme Court in 2013.

Grant's third-term ambitions helped create the GOP's elephant symbol

In 1874, as Republicans debated Ulysses S. Grant possibly seeking a third term, Harper's Weekly ran a Thomas Nast cartoon showing a panicked elephant labeled "The Republican Vote." The image caught on, cementing the elephant as the GOP's enduring symbol.

A vast majority of Americans support term limits for Congress

In a 2023 poll, 87% of respondents said they supported imposing term limits on members of Congress. The overwhelming bipartisan backing makes term limits one of the most consistently popular political reforms in the United States.

How demographics influence voter turnout and elections

This article breaks down demographic data to show what it means for American elections. According to the latest US Census, the US is growing increasingly diverse. As the population becomes more diverse, so does the electorate. Analyzing the...

How house colors can indicate gentrification

Reporters from the Washington Post share an analysis that indicates gray and neutrally toned houses are signs of gentrification in a neighborhood. Visuals of different paint swatches help illustrate which colors are chosen for newly built homes in certain DC districts.

Sharp partisan divides shape how Americans view immigration enforcement

A January 2026 survey shows large party gaps: Both sides broadly support recording arrests, but Democrats are much more likely than Republicans to support sharing officer locations and to oppose profiling, masked officers, and neighborhood-based enforcement.

Nate Silver argues the Electoral College can reduce the impact of excess votes

In this article, Silver weighs the Electoral College's flaws—especially popular-vote inversions—against its advantages, arguing it can limit the effect of surplus votes in heavily one-sided states and encourage broader competition.

Understand the US electorate demographics

Ever wonder how much of each group make up the American voting bloc? Find raw data from the '16 and '18 elections broken out by a variety of factors (click on "validated voters database" link).

The world reached historic levels of democracy under the rules-based order, though that trend has reversed

The share of democracies worldwide grew dramatically from the mid-20th century, reaching an all-time high in the early 2010s. Since then, the trend has reversed, with an increasing number of countries experiencing democratic backsliding.

A majority of Americans think President Trump is using more power than previous presidents

An October 2025 Pew Research Center survey found that 69% of Americans believed President Trump was trying to exert more power than previous presidents. Most Democrats viewed it negatively, while about half of Republicans said it was good for the country.

Latest polls on the 2024 Presidential election

The latest polls for the 2024 Presidential Election. Updated daily, includes state and national polls for every matchup, including Biden, Harris, Trump, and DeSantis.

Some Watergate reforms may have fueled today's partisan, confrontational Congress

The newly elected officials after the Watergate scandal dismantled seniority norms, opened committee votes, and televised proceedings—efforts aimed at increasing transparency that, unintentionally, may have fueled the polarized and combative tone of today's Congress.

President Barack Obama responded to Republican cheers about his final term during the State of the Union

In the 2015 address, after Republicans cheered when President Obama said he had "no more elections to run," his quick reply drew laughter from the crowd: "I know, because I won both."