The global impacts of the 1877 'super' El Niño and what could result from similar future events

Understanding how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is affected by climate change

An analysis of El Niño and La Niña patterns from 1901 to 2020 suggests that anthropogenic warming—global warming caused by humans—has at least partly contributed to increased ENSO variability in recent decades. While ENSO increases the likelihood of droughts and flooding across different regions, researchers say these severe weather events are made more extreme by greenhouse gas emissions.

Breaking down the health effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Second only to the seasons, ENSO is the most significant source of variability in global climate, shifting rainfall and temperature patterns, particularly in Africa, Latin America, and South and Southeast Asia. The incidence of vector-borne diseases like malaria, respiratory diseases related to wildfire smoke, food insecurity, and drought-related health and nutritional impacts has been observed to be affected by ENSO.

While El Niño moves warm Pacific Ocean waters east along the equator, La Niña moves them west, shifting where rainfall will become more common for months.

El Niño and La Niña are Pacific Ocean climate patterns that affect global weather

El Niño causes warm water to move east, disrupting ocean life and bringing wetter conditions to the southern US and drier ones to the North. La Niña strengthens the usual wind patterns, triggering cooler northern winters and more storms in the Pacific Northwest.

Mapping how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation affects weather patterns around the world

In the warm episode (El Niño), summers in India, Indonesia, Australia, and the Caribbean are drier than normal, while winters bring wetter, cooler conditions to the US Gulf Coast and warmer conditions to the Pacific Northwest. During the cold episode (La Niña), these are reversed, with India, Indonesia, and the southern Caribbean experiencing greater rainfall in the summers.

How El Niño and La Niña affect the Pacific and Atlantic hurricane seasons

During El Niño, trade winds push warm waters across the Pacific toward northwest South America, affecting atmospheric circulation. The resulting strengthening of vertical wind speed and direction in the Atlantic basin disrupts hurricane formation, while the weakening of this wind shear in the central and eastern Pacific basins increases hurricane likelihood. El Niña, conversely, has the opposite impacts.

A medieval warm period reshaped agriculture across parts of the world

Between 750 and 1350 CE, some regions experienced temperatures that rivaled or exceeded late-20th-century averages, likely due to shifts in El Niño–La Niña cycles. The warmer, wetter climate in Europe and northeast North America boosted agriculture, while causing droughts elsewhere.

Comparing La Niña and El Niño atmosphere-ocean feedback patterns

During La Niña, trade winds reinforce the flow of warm ocean water from the eastern to the western Pacific, allowing colder subsurface water in the eastern Pacific to rise to the surface. These changes reinforce overhead air movements by altering the air temperature near the ocean surface. During El Niño, these trade winds weaken or reverse, preventing upwelling by shifting warm water back to the eastern Pacific and displacing atmospheric circulation patterns.

El Niño, Spanish for 'the boy,' was named after Jesus Christ because the phenomenon resembled the weather changes observed around Christmastime.

How scientists use data to anticipate the phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Sea-surface temperatures across various regions of the equatorial Pacific Ocean can be compared with ocean temperatures elsewhere in the tropics to identify anomalies that indicate where in the ENSO cycle Earth finds itself. The "Niño 3.4" region in particular—known as the Ocean Niño Index—is a key indicator of ENSO phase and intensity.

How jet streams and US weather are affected by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Jet streams are predominantly west-to-east air currents in the atmosphere that mark the boundary between cold polar air and warm tropical air, where cells of atmospheric circulation meet. By disrupting the location of these circulations on two- to seven-year cycles, ENSO alters the probability of droughts, floods, and above- or below-average temperatures across the US.

Learn about various ocean-atmosphere cycles impacting global weather patterns

Although the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is among the most impactful, the North Atlantic Oscillation strongly influences weather patterns in the Northeast US by periodically changing atmospheric pressure over the Atlantic. The North Pacific Oscillation fluctuates atmospheric pressure and sea-surface temperatures that affect winter temperatures over much of the US.

Compare various El Niño-Southern Oscillations using maps of atmospheric and ocean variables

Because the intensity of the phases in the cycle is sensitive to small variations in atmospheric and ocean conditions and depends on complex interactions between these two systems, no two El Niño or La Niña events are identical. This contributes to the variability in the length of each phase, which is why an ENSO can last as little as two years or as long as seven.

Climate shifts are projected to cause more cases of food poisoning

Research published in 2024 suggests that with more severe heatwaves and natural disasters, scientists expect there to be a rise in foodborne disease, especially in Africa and Asia. Already, there are an estimated 600 million food poisoning cases and 420,000 deaths annually. Diarrhea is the most common cause of those deaths.

The top several meters of the world's oceans can hold as much thermal energy as the entire atmosphere.

Could the world's largest solar storm happen again?

In 1859, the world witnessed the most intense solar storm in recorded history. The electromagnetic deluge of dust and gas lit up the night sky and sparked fires, disrupting Earth's magnetic field and putting on a show for the millions. If a storm with a similar intensity today occurred, scientists believe it would be catastrophic for our communications systems. Learn what would happen if the Carrington Event happened again here.

About 66 million years ago, an asteroid larger than Mount Everest struck Earth off the coast of the Yucatán Peninsula and wiped out at least 75% of all species, including nearly all dinosaurs.

Explore Earth's future climate under different levels of warming

An incredible interactive project showing how global warming is projected to affect the world, from temperatures to rainfall, droughts and flooding, and more.

The list of historic volcanic eruptions includes the 1883 blast from Krakatau, which killed more than 36,000 and was the first such event to be documented in real time, thanks to the telegraph.

View the 10 biggest volcanic eruptions in recorded history

The Mount Tambora eruption in 1815 was the deadliest and released so much sun-blocking ash and gas that 1816 became known as “the year without summer.” The resulting global food shortages are estimated to have killed over 71,000 people.

A modern-day version of the dinosaur-killing asteroid would kill billions of people

Such an asteroid would level Central America, trigger tsunamis, spark global fires, and plunge the planet into an artificial winter lasting over a decade. Bunkers would be insufficient for survival without years of provisions.

Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities have contributed to global warming

A 2021 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that such emissions were responsible for approximately 1.1 degrees Celsius (2.0 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming since 1850-1900. Without rapid, large-scale reductions in emissions, temperatures are expected to continue to rise, leading to more extreme weather events.

Supervolcanoes can eject enough material to fill one-fourth of the Grand Canyon

Although extremely rare, their released material can trigger winters by blocking the sun and cooling the Earth’s surface for years. The Toba supereruption 74,000 years ago disrupted food chains and reduced the human population to a few thousand.

What types of extreme weather can be attributed to climate change?

For decades, it was impossible to say that a specific weather event was caused, or even made worse, by climate change. But advanced research methods are changing that.

The impacts of the solar maximum on Earth, from telecommunications to auroras

During the peak of the sun's 11-year cycle, plasma emissions stronger than the average stream of particles from the sun can compress and distort the Earth's magnetic field, allowing auroras to be seen farther from the poles. Distortions in the ionized layer of Earth's atmosphere can also alter the path of communication transmissions through the air. (Some readers may experience a paywall.)

When signing the Paris Agreement, almost 200 nations committed to pursuing efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, based on guidance from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The resulting climate change, not the asteroid impact itself, killed most dinosaurs

Although the Chicxulub impact caused widespread destruction through earthquakes and tsunamis, the subsequent nuclear winter, acid rain, and eventual greenhouse warming drove mass extinction. Roughly 70% of species, including all non-avian dinosaurs, went extinct.

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of severe turbulence

Severe turbulence over the North Atlantic has increased by 55% over the past 40 years, driven by strengthened jet streams and storm systems. Ongoing increases in global temperatures, which fuel these changes, may triple severe turbulence incidents in the coming decades.

Climate change is influencing the spread of disease

Rising temperatures and water levels are forcing animals and pathogens beyond their typical boundaries. This article and its data visualizations explore the proliferation of climate-driven diseases.

Understanding the 1.5 degree Celsius climate benchmark

As more parts of the world are facing extreme weather, from high temperatures to increased natural disasters, there is much debate about what can be done. MIT News explores and explains the 1.5-degree benchmark for limiting the effects of climate change. Read to understand where the planet stands in relation to this threshold and what can be done at the global, regional, and personal levels to “keep 1.5 alive.”

Mapping projected food inflation across the world in 2026

Iran tops the list of hardest-hit countries with a projected 56% inflation on food prices in 2026, followed by Argentina (33%) and Turkey (25%). In the opposite direction is Niger, whose food inflation is expected to drop 18% as a result of strong harvests and financial stabilization. The global average of food inflation is expected to be 3%.

From 2023 to 2025, coral reefs experienced their fourth global bleaching event and the largest such event through 2025.

The total cost of weather and climate disasters from 1980 to 2024 is almost $3T

The NOAA’s Office of Coastal Management tracks the cost of damage, deaths, and other key statistics related to hurricanes and weather disasters. In 2024, there were 27 billion-dollar disasters, each averaging $1.2B more in damage than the prior five-year average.

Humans were forced to adapt to survive a supervolcano eruption 74,000 years ago

The Toba supereruption ejected 2800 cubic kilometers of ash, resulting in global cooling from blocked sunlight and acid rain. Archaeological sites show that humans developed bow-and-arrow technology to survive in arid conditions by fishing in seasonal waterholes.

A map of extreme weather events and their links to climate change

To track how the evidence on this fast-moving topic is stacking up, Carbon Brief has mapped every extreme-weather attribution study published to date. Read more about the findings from the comprehensive analysis.

The frequency of earthquakes and the distribution of their magnitudes have not changed significantly over long-term records, but technological improvements have enabled scientists to detect more of them as they occur.

Watch a visualization of how Earth's oceans impact its atmosphere, weather, and climate.

There may be 500,000 additional malaria deaths by 2050 according to peer-reviewed research published in 2026.

Hurricane Helene dumped enough water to fill Lake Tahoe

Alongside a rainstorm that moved into the region ahead of it, the hurricane released an unprecedented 40 trillion gallons of rain on the southeastern US, causing catastrophic flooding and at least 100 deaths. Meteorologists suggest climate change is exacerbating the severity of such events.

Climate science 101: climate change, its impacts, and potential solutions

How do we know that this warming is happening and that it’s caused by humans? How strong is the evidence? What risks can we expect and what can we do about them?

The 1957 and 1968 influenza pandemics caused millions of deaths worldwide

The 1957 H2N2 pandemic spread from East Asia, killing more than 1M globally, while the 1968 H3N2 pandemic began in Hong Kong and caused a similar toll, with both strains rapidly moving across continents.

Available data suggest that while hurricane frequency has not increased over the past century, average hurricane intensity has, a trend scientists attribute to rising air and ocean temperatures.

The Rodinia supercontinent triggered a global ice age when it broke 750 million years ago

Before Pangaea, the Earth’s continental plates had drifted together and broken apart multiple times, with each event altering atmospheric CO2 concentrations and triggering climate change. The continents are estimated to come together again in 50 million to 250 million years.

Why Earth will be made uninhabitable by the sun far sooner than when the sun dies

The star has enough fuel to continue fusing hydrogen into helium for another 5 billion years, but the gradual increase in core temperature from these reactions will brighten the sun by 10% every billion years. Some models predict that the increased radiation will be enough to vaporize all of Earth's surface water about 1 billion years from now, long before the sun becomes a red giant and disintegrates the planet.

The strongest recorded geomagnetic storm in history created auroras near the equator

On Sept. 1, 1859, the Carrington Event—named after the astronomer who observed the preceding solar flare—saw a massive coronal mass ejection strike Earth, disrupting telegraph systems, sparking electrical fires, and reportedly illuminating the night sky enough to allow newspapers to be read at night.

There have been five mass extinction events in Earth’s history

Each extinction event has resulted in the loss of at least 70% of Earth’s species at the time of the event, often due to significant changes in global temperatures. The most recent event occurred 66 million years ago and wiped out all non-avian dinosaurs.

View the 10 largest earthquakes ever recorded as of 2025, led by a 1960 magnitude 9.5 earthquake in Chile, which left about 2 million people unhoused.

How global conditions have improved over 200 years

In an era of 24-hour news, it can feel as if the world is on a perpetual downward spiral. This set of visualizations zoom out, and show how global living conditions have improved in recent centuries. The percentage of people living in extreme...

Climate tipping points are irreversible changes to Earth's environment

Earth's natural systems have prevented these events—including the mass death of coral reefs, loss of the Amazon rainforest, and shutdown of Atlantic currents—but scientists believe they are unlikely to withstand continued stressors from climate change.

The Russia-Ukraine war greatly affected the global food supply

Russia's invasion devastated Ukraine's agricultural sector, destroying farms, ports, and grain infrastructure and causing over $40B in losses. Disrupted exports fueled global food insecurity, while Moscow leveraged its grain exports to expand influence across the Global South.