Learn about various ocean-atmosphere cycles impacting global weather patterns

How jet streams and US weather are affected by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Jet streams are predominantly west-to-east air currents in the atmosphere that mark the boundary between cold polar air and warm tropical air, where cells of atmospheric circulation meet. By disrupting the location of these circulations on two- to seven-year cycles, ENSO alters the probability of droughts, floods, and above- or below-average temperatures across the US.

El Niño and La Niña are Pacific Ocean climate patterns that affect global weather

El Niño causes warm water to move east, disrupting ocean life and bringing wetter conditions to the southern US and drier ones to the North. La Niña strengthens the usual wind patterns, triggering cooler northern winters and more storms in the Pacific Northwest.

Mapping how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation affects weather patterns around the world

In the warm episode (El Niño), summers in India, Indonesia, Australia, and the Caribbean are drier than normal, while winters bring wetter, cooler conditions to the US Gulf Coast and warmer conditions to the Pacific Northwest. During the cold episode (La Niña), these are reversed, with India, Indonesia, and the southern Caribbean experiencing greater rainfall in the summers.

How El Niño and La Niña affect the Pacific and Atlantic hurricane seasons

During El Niño, trade winds push warm waters across the Pacific toward northwest South America, affecting atmospheric circulation. The resulting strengthening of vertical wind speed and direction in the Atlantic basin disrupts hurricane formation, while the weakening of this wind shear in the central and eastern Pacific basins increases hurricane likelihood. El Niña, conversely, has the opposite impacts.

Comparing La Niña and El Niño atmosphere-ocean feedback patterns

During La Niña, trade winds reinforce the flow of warm ocean water from the eastern to the western Pacific, allowing colder subsurface water in the eastern Pacific to rise to the surface. These changes reinforce overhead air movements by altering the air temperature near the ocean surface. During El Niño, these trade winds weaken or reverse, preventing upwelling by shifting warm water back to the eastern Pacific and displacing atmospheric circulation patterns.

While El Niño moves warm Pacific Ocean waters east along the equator, La Niña moves them west, shifting where rainfall will become more common for months.

Compare various El Niño-Southern Oscillations using maps of atmospheric and ocean variables

Because the intensity of the phases in the cycle is sensitive to small variations in atmospheric and ocean conditions and depends on complex interactions between these two systems, no two El Niño or La Niña events are identical. This contributes to the variability in the length of each phase, which is why an ENSO can last as little as two years or as long as seven.

Breaking down the health effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Second only to the seasons, ENSO is the most significant source of variability in global climate, shifting rainfall and temperature patterns, particularly in Africa, Latin America, and South and Southeast Asia. The incidence of vector-borne diseases like malaria, respiratory diseases related to wildfire smoke, food insecurity, and drought-related health and nutritional impacts has been observed to be affected by ENSO.

Understanding how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is affected by climate change

An analysis of El Niño and La Niña patterns from 1901 to 2020 suggests that anthropogenic warming—global warming caused by humans—has at least partly contributed to increased ENSO variability in recent decades. While ENSO increases the likelihood of droughts and flooding across different regions, researchers say these severe weather events are made more extreme by greenhouse gas emissions.

How salt, sunlight, and wind drive ocean currents

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation plays a critical role in regulating earth's climate, but is threatened by climate change. Explore the effects of temperature, density, and salinity on ocean currents in this 13-minute PBS video.

Watch a visualization of how Earth's oceans impact its atmosphere, weather, and climate.

How scientists use data to anticipate the phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Sea-surface temperatures across various regions of the equatorial Pacific Ocean can be compared with ocean temperatures elsewhere in the tropics to identify anomalies that indicate where in the ENSO cycle Earth finds itself. The "Niño 3.4" region in particular—known as the Ocean Niño Index—is a key indicator of ENSO phase and intensity.

The top several meters of the world's oceans can hold as much thermal energy as the entire atmosphere.

Watch a visualization of global ocean currents from NASA's Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean project.

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of severe turbulence

Severe turbulence over the North Atlantic has increased by 55% over the past 40 years, driven by strengthened jet streams and storm systems. Ongoing increases in global temperatures, which fuel these changes, may triple severe turbulence incidents in the coming decades.

The global impacts of the 1877 'super' El Niño and what could result from similar future events

The 1877 El Niño event lasted approximately 18 months, raised temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean by 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.86 degrees Fahrenheit) above average, and contributed to a global famine that killed more than 50 million people. Such events are expected to exacerbate drought-related risks to global food security, driving up food prices worldwide. (Some readers may experience a paywall.)

Surface ocean currents are primarily driven by wind, tides, and Earth's rotation, while deep-ocean currents are driven by differences in temperature and salt concentration.

El Niño, Spanish for 'the boy,' was named after Jesus Christ because the phenomenon resembled the weather changes observed around Christmastime.

An overview of Earth's atmospheric cells and how they distribute Earth's uneven heating

The Hadley, Ferrel, and Polar cells are circulation patterns that act like gears, moving warmer air from the equator to the poles. The rising and falling of air currents within these patterns creates semi-persistent regions of low and high pressure, which contribute to the formation of regional climates, such as tropical zones.

How does climate change impact hurricanes?

Statistical relationships between sea surface temperature and hurricanes, analysis of century-scale Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane records, analysis of other observed Atlantic hurricane metrics, and more.

Changes in Earth's orbital cycles influence the timing of ice ages

These cycles include changes in Earth's orbit shape, tilt, and wobble, all of which alter how much solar energy different parts of Earth receive over time. Due to orbital eccentricity, summers in the Northern Hemisphere last about 4.5 days longer than winters.

Instabilities in the polar jet stream can bring cold Arctic air southward

The polar jet stream marks the boundary between mid-latitude air and the much colder polar air, which are normally contained by the polar vortex—a ring of strong winds that circles the Arctic around 16 to 50 kilometers (10 to 30 miles) above the Earth's surface. Climate change may be responsible for "blocking patterns" that distort the jet stream, allowing polar air to leak into lower latitudes.

Trade winds blow from east to west due to the Coriolis Effect

Warm air rises near the equator while cooler air sinks near the poles, creating circulation patterns that curve due to Earth's rotation. At the equator, doldrums—calm regions of no wind—build warm, moist air, creating storms.

Carbon dioxide acts as a 'control knob' for Earth's climate

Although Earth's ice ages were primarily triggered by slow changes in the planet's orbit—known as Milankovitch cycles—these changes do not explain the extreme temperature swings during glacial periods. Carbon dioxide acts as a feedback mechanism, intensifying both cooling during ice ages and warming during their ends by reinforcing the initial changes sparked by orbital shifts.

Bomb cyclones can produce heavy rain, blizzard conditions, and intense winds

Known as "bombogenesis" in meteorology, these systems get their colloquial name from their rapid intensification over a 24-hour period—a phenomenon seen in some tropical cyclones. They occur most commonly along the coasts of the Northeast and Northwest US when there is a severe temperature difference between colliding air masses.

View the 55 ECVs used to describe Earth's atmospheric conditions

Essential climate variables include physical, chemical, and biological variables that meaningfully contribute to Earth's climate and how it changes with time. Many of these variables influence one another through feedback mechanisms across Earth's atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, biosphere, and geosphere.

Visualizing changes in ocean temperatures between 2016 and 2020

How much does the temperature of the sea change in a given year? This visualization helps illustrate the changes by showing sea surface temperature data from January 2016 through March 2020. Sea surface temperature, which refers to water temperature at the sea's surface, plays a significant role in climate and weather.

View the most turbulent flight routes and airports around the world

Using data from NOAA and the UK Met Office, these maps identify South America as the geographic region with the highest average turbulence. The most turbulent flights in North America are all found in the western United States.

Discover trends in Earth's climate system: What are indicators of climate change?

A comprehensive deep dive tracking components of the climate system over time, such as temperature, sea level, sea ice amounts, ocean heat, greenhouse gases, and more (w/charts and graphs).

How the loss of Earth's atmosphere would cause oceans to boil at freezing temperatures

Many phenomena requiring air pressure, from the flight of birds and aircraft to the act of breathing, would no longer be possible. Because sound travels through vibrating air molecules, the loss of the planet's atmosphere would also create a silent environment. Even during daytime hours, the sky would resemble a clear night sky.

How jet streams, which reside in the troposphere, shape and confine pockets of atmospheric air

These fast-flowing ribbons of air are hundreds of kilometers wide and typically travel from west to east due to Earth's rotation, with the polar front and subtropical jets serving as major drivers of global circulation. Warmer air near the equator pushes the polar front jets toward the poles, which can buckle and deform them as they contain frigid polar vortex systems.

The field of attribution science seeks to determine whether specific phenomena, such as melting glaciers, droughts, and hurricanes, are driven by Earth's natural climate cycles or by human-caused climate change.

Nor'easters can produce thundersnow—lightning in blizzard conditions

Although thunderstorms typically require warm air to rise in updrafts and collide with heavier soft hail, which creates charge separation and eventual electrical discharge, these cyclones can replicate these conditions by churning the atmosphere through strong winds. Rarely, especially warm lakes can similarly help generate thunderstorms during the winter.

Explore an interactive global weather map, with overlays depicting real-time data on temperature, precipitation, wind, humidity, and pressure, which enable the tracking and monitoring of extreme weather events.

Climate data is monitored globally using tools from satellites to backyard gauges

Scientists use satellites, balloons, ocean buoys, and land-based instruments to track climate variables like temperature, precipitation, and wind. These tools gather data from deep ocean waters to the upper atmosphere.

Grasp the earth's orbit around the sun with this interactive

See why seasons exist with this interactive simulator. Toggle between different views of the earth in relation to the sun and watch as the earth's axis causes the sun to shine at different angles throughout the year, causing the weather to fluctuate and more. This simulator clarifies a process many take for granted.

Available data suggest that while hurricane frequency has not increased over the past century, average hurricane intensity has, a trend scientists attribute to rising air and ocean temperatures.

Learn all about different types of extreme weather

Find out in more detail about different types of extreme weather, from flooding to thunderstorms, from tropical cyclones to sandstorms, and more (w/ helpful videos).

Clouds' subtle climate effects require significant computational power to simulate

Responsible for reflecting sunlight and preventing thermal energy from entering the Earth system while also trapping energy and keeping it in the system, clouds are understood to substantially influence climate predictions. Because even supercomputers struggle to accurately model their dynamic behavior, researchers have used AI to indirectly incorporate clouds into climate models.

A map of extreme weather events and their links to climate change

To track how the evidence on this fast-moving topic is stacking up, Carbon Brief has mapped every extreme-weather attribution study published to date. Read more about the findings from the comprehensive analysis.

Climate models have predicted sea level rise almost perfectly since the 1990s

The rise in sea levels is primarily due to melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica, and predicted levels have been confirmed accurate by satellite observations. Ocean currents influence regional variations in sea level rise, which are expected to accelerate.

What types of extreme weather can be attributed to climate change?

For decades, it was impossible to say that a specific weather event was caused, or even made worse, by climate change. But advanced research methods are changing that.

Earth's oceans do mix, despite viral images and videos claiming to show boundaries between oceans that waters do not cross.

Snowfall records from every county in the US

Discover the one-day snowfall records of every county in the US in this comprehensive map. Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration captures inches of snowfall and the year it fell the most in each county. See the contrasts between the inches of snowfall in warm southern American states and the cooler East Coast.

Meteorological v. astronomical seasons, explained

Meteorologists and climatologists define seasons differently from “regular” or astronomical spring, summer, fall, and winter. Traditional seasons reflect the movement of celestial objects, known as the astronomical seasons; meteorologists mark seasonal change based on temperature averages.

Differences in pressure and temperature between atmospheric gases create wind

Because Earth's surface is not uniformly heated by the sun at all times, pockets of warmer and cooler air will form and interact. Warmer pockets of less dense air will rise, leaving gaps for cooler, denser air to move in. Wind is this movement of air from high-pressure to low-pressure areas.

Tropical cyclones are called hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones around the world

Tropical cyclones are named differently based on their region of origin due to historical traditions and cultural importance. These storms are called hurricanes in the Atlantic and northeast Pacific oceans, cyclones in the southwest Pacific and Indian oceans, and typhoons in the northwest Pacific Ocean.

The ocean's ability to store carbon long-term is being hindered by marine heatwaves

More than 4,000 robotic floats with biogeochemical data sensors, including oxygen, pH, nitrate, suspended particles, chlorophyll, temperature, and conductivity, have been deployed as part of the Global Ocean Biogeochemical Array. They have identified changes to ecosystem structure affecting the ocean's ability to transport carbon from surface waters into the deep.

A medieval warm period reshaped agriculture across parts of the world

Between 750 and 1350 CE, some regions experienced temperatures that rivaled or exceeded late-20th-century averages, likely due to shifts in El Niño–La Niña cycles. The warmer, wetter climate in Europe and northeast North America boosted agriculture, while causing droughts elsewhere.

Why the ozone hole altered Southern Hemisphere jet streams and rainfall patterns

Ozone depletion over Antarctica shifted jet streams southward, drying Australia while increasing rainfall in Uruguay, Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina. Around the turn of the millennium, these trends began to slow as the Montreal Protocol phased out ozone-depleting substances.