How El Niño and La Niña affect the Pacific and Atlantic hurricane seasons

El Niño and La Niña are Pacific Ocean climate patterns that affect global weather

El Niño causes warm water to move east, disrupting ocean life and bringing wetter conditions to the southern US and drier ones to the North. La Niña strengthens the usual wind patterns, triggering cooler northern winters and more storms in the Pacific Northwest.

While El Niño moves warm Pacific Ocean waters east along the equator, La Niña moves them west, shifting where rainfall will become more common for months.

Comparing La Niña and El Niño atmosphere-ocean feedback patterns

During La Niña, trade winds reinforce the flow of warm ocean water from the eastern to the western Pacific, allowing colder subsurface water in the eastern Pacific to rise to the surface. These changes reinforce overhead air movements by altering the air temperature near the ocean surface. During El Niño, these trade winds weaken or reverse, preventing upwelling by shifting warm water back to the eastern Pacific and displacing atmospheric circulation patterns.

Learn about various ocean-atmosphere cycles impacting global weather patterns

Although the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is among the most impactful, the North Atlantic Oscillation strongly influences weather patterns in the Northeast US by periodically changing atmospheric pressure over the Atlantic. The North Pacific Oscillation fluctuates atmospheric pressure and sea-surface temperatures that affect winter temperatures over much of the US.

How jet streams and US weather are affected by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Jet streams are predominantly west-to-east air currents in the atmosphere that mark the boundary between cold polar air and warm tropical air, where cells of atmospheric circulation meet. By disrupting the location of these circulations on two- to seven-year cycles, ENSO alters the probability of droughts, floods, and above- or below-average temperatures across the US.

Mapping how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation affects weather patterns around the world

In the warm episode (El Niño), summers in India, Indonesia, Australia, and the Caribbean are drier than normal, while winters bring wetter, cooler conditions to the US Gulf Coast and warmer conditions to the Pacific Northwest. During the cold episode (La Niña), these are reversed, with India, Indonesia, and the southern Caribbean experiencing greater rainfall in the summers.

How does climate change impact hurricanes?

Statistical relationships between sea surface temperature and hurricanes, analysis of century-scale Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane records, analysis of other observed Atlantic hurricane metrics, and more.

El Niño, Spanish for 'the boy,' was named after Jesus Christ because the phenomenon resembled the weather changes observed around Christmastime.

Understanding how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is affected by climate change

An analysis of El Niño and La Niña patterns from 1901 to 2020 suggests that anthropogenic warming—global warming caused by humans—has at least partly contributed to increased ENSO variability in recent decades. While ENSO increases the likelihood of droughts and flooding across different regions, researchers say these severe weather events are made more extreme by greenhouse gas emissions.

Breaking down the health effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Second only to the seasons, ENSO is the most significant source of variability in global climate, shifting rainfall and temperature patterns, particularly in Africa, Latin America, and South and Southeast Asia. The incidence of vector-borne diseases like malaria, respiratory diseases related to wildfire smoke, food insecurity, and drought-related health and nutritional impacts has been observed to be affected by ENSO.

The global impacts of the 1877 'super' El Niño and what could result from similar future events

The 1877 El Niño event lasted approximately 18 months, raised temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean by 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.86 degrees Fahrenheit) above average, and contributed to a global famine that killed more than 50 million people. Such events are expected to exacerbate drought-related risks to global food security, driving up food prices worldwide. (Some readers may experience a paywall.)

How scientists use data to anticipate the phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Sea-surface temperatures across various regions of the equatorial Pacific Ocean can be compared with ocean temperatures elsewhere in the tropics to identify anomalies that indicate where in the ENSO cycle Earth finds itself. The "Niño 3.4" region in particular—known as the Ocean Niño Index—is a key indicator of ENSO phase and intensity.

Compare various El Niño-Southern Oscillations using maps of atmospheric and ocean variables

Because the intensity of the phases in the cycle is sensitive to small variations in atmospheric and ocean conditions and depends on complex interactions between these two systems, no two El Niño or La Niña events are identical. This contributes to the variability in the length of each phase, which is why an ENSO can last as little as two years or as long as seven.

How salt, sunlight, and wind drive ocean currents

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation plays a critical role in regulating earth's climate, but is threatened by climate change. Explore the effects of temperature, density, and salinity on ocean currents in this 13-minute PBS video.

Hurricanes, which rely on air consistently spinning in the same direction, cannot cross the equator because air curves in opposite directions north and south of it.

Why aren’t there hurricanes in Europe?

Despite their proximity to the Atlantic Ocean, the effects of the subtropical jet stream make tropical storms and hurricanes unlikely to reach Europe at full strength. Their remnants, however, can combine with other weather systems to create powerful storms.

Trade winds blow from east to west due to the Coriolis Effect

Warm air rises near the equator while cooler air sinks near the poles, creating circulation patterns that curve due to Earth's rotation. At the equator, doldrums—calm regions of no wind—build warm, moist air, creating storms.

Available data suggest that while hurricane frequency has not increased over the past century, average hurricane intensity has, a trend scientists attribute to rising air and ocean temperatures.

Hurricanes spin due to differences in air and ground speed as they move across Earth

The movement of an object across latitudes causes it to take a curved trajectory because its speed no longer matches that of the ground beneath it. This phenomenon, called the Coriolis effect, explains why hurricanes spin counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere.

The top several meters of the world's oceans can hold as much thermal energy as the entire atmosphere.

How do hurricanes form?

Tropical cyclones, also called hurricanes and typhoons, cause catastrophic damage when they strike land. This four-minute video explores the life cycle of cyclones—how atmospheric conditions, ocean temperatures, and the Earth's rotation combine to create them, and how they are driven by winds and eventually weaken after moving over land.

The risk of tornadoes and storm surges is greatest on the 'dirty side' of a hurricane

Winds in the right-front quadrant of the storm are amplified by the hurricane's motion and its rotation, which both move air in the same direction. Upon making landfall, these winds pull water from the Gulf and Atlantic onto land, creating storm surges. Tornadoes can also be generated from large differences in wind speed and direction at various heights.

Tropical cyclones are called hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones around the world

Tropical cyclones are named differently based on their region of origin due to historical traditions and cultural importance. These storms are called hurricanes in the Atlantic and northeast Pacific oceans, cyclones in the southwest Pacific and Indian oceans, and typhoons in the northwest Pacific Ocean.

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of severe turbulence

Severe turbulence over the North Atlantic has increased by 55% over the past 40 years, driven by strengthened jet streams and storm systems. Ongoing increases in global temperatures, which fuel these changes, may triple severe turbulence incidents in the coming decades.

Dust from the Sahel and Saharan regions makes northwest Africa a hurricane nursery

NASA’s Convective Processes Experiment—Cabo Verde studied the early stages of hurricane formation, identifying how dust interacts with clouds over the ocean to produce the rainy disturbances that become tropical cyclones.

All hurricanes have a central eye, where no extreme weather occurs, surrounded by intense winds and thunderstorms.

Surface ocean currents are primarily driven by wind, tides, and Earth's rotation, while deep-ocean currents are driven by differences in temperature and salt concentration.

Rapid intensification is the increase in a hurricane's sustained wind speed by at least 35 miles per hour within 24 hours, which can strengthen it by up to two categories.

Watch a visualization of how Earth's oceans impact its atmosphere, weather, and climate.

Nor'easters can produce thundersnow—lightning in blizzard conditions

Although thunderstorms typically require warm air to rise in updrafts and collide with heavier soft hail, which creates charge separation and eventual electrical discharge, these cyclones can replicate these conditions by churning the atmosphere through strong winds. Rarely, especially warm lakes can similarly help generate thunderstorms during the winter.

Watch a visualization of global ocean currents from NASA's Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean project.

By absorbing 90% of the thermal energy trapped by greenhouse gases, oceans are providing increasingly more energy to power the rapid strengthening of hurricanes.

Hurricane Helene dumped enough water to fill Lake Tahoe

Alongside a rainstorm that moved into the region ahead of it, the hurricane released an unprecedented 40 trillion gallons of rain on the southeastern US, causing catastrophic flooding and at least 100 deaths. Meteorologists suggest climate change is exacerbating the severity of such events.

Lightning storms are more common in coastal and tropical regions

Water-abundant areas that receive increased solar radiation, such as those near the equator, experience increased rates of evaporation, which produce tall clouds as moisture rises, cools, and condenses. Mountain ranges can also steer air to higher altitudes, creating collisions between atmospheric particles that generate charge imbalances—the precursors to lightning.

Bomb cyclones can produce heavy rain, blizzard conditions, and intense winds

Known as "bombogenesis" in meteorology, these systems get their colloquial name from their rapid intensification over a 24-hour period—a phenomenon seen in some tropical cyclones. They occur most commonly along the coasts of the Northeast and Northwest US when there is a severe temperature difference between colliding air masses.

As of 2025, the world's largest tropical cyclone spanned half the continental US

Typhoon Tip traveled across the western Pacific Ocean in 1979, achieving winds of 300 kilometers per hour. Though it weakened significantly before making landfall in Japan, its rainfall produced over 600 mudslides and killed 42 people.

Storm surges, not winds, are the leading cause of hurricane-related fatalities

A storm surge is an abnormal rise in water levels generated by a storm that exceeds predicted tides. It is particularly dangerous in coastal regions, where it can generate extreme flooding well before the hurricane makes landfall.

Tropical cyclone formation require warm water and limited vertical wind shear

Ocean temperatures above 27 degrees Celsius fuel rising, moist air, which releases energy through heat as water vapor condenses into clouds. Significant changes in wind speed with height can spread out these upflows, preventing the eventual formation of a central column known as the eye.

Check out hurricane history where you live

The NOAA's historical hurricane tracker lets you explore over 150 years of data to see where hurricanes traveled and made landfall. The tool lets you search by location, name, or year; create maps and tables; and read NOAA storm reports.

Project STORMFURY explored modifying hurricanes with silver iodide

Between 1962 and 1983, researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration investigated whether weakening and controlling hurricanes was possible. The investigation showed very few hurricanes met the criteria for modification, despite successfully weakening two storms.

What does the hurricane forecast cone really tell us?

Ever feel like hurricane forecasts change a lot? Hurricane forecast tracks might not mean what you think they do. Concentric circles are actually used to help form the forecast. Chief Meteorologist Bobby Deskins explains how you should really be reading these cones.

Hurricanes can grow by replacing their eyewall

A second outer eyewall can form around the primary eyewall surrounding a hurricane's eye. During an eyewall replacement cycle, the outer wall can weaken, collapse, and replace the inner wall, temporarily weakening the storm before it strengthens and grows.

Atmospheric processes amplify the strength of storms by coalescing clouds

Research has shown that turbulent mixing of air at the edges of clouds and other small-scale thermal activity beneath them help clouds group together, intensifying short bursts of rainfall, especially in tropical regions. Simulations reveal this produces more powerful storms than predicted by older models, though they may occur less frequently.

Instabilities in the polar jet stream can bring cold Arctic air southward

The polar jet stream marks the boundary between mid-latitude air and the much colder polar air, which are normally contained by the polar vortex—a ring of strong winds that circles the Arctic around 16 to 50 kilometers (10 to 30 miles) above the Earth's surface. Climate change may be responsible for "blocking patterns" that distort the jet stream, allowing polar air to leak into lower latitudes.

See the lists of the worst hurricanes in the US through 2024

Several metrics, including wind speed, pressure, damage costs, and casualties, may be used to define the most devastating hurricanes. This page provides the top 10 hurricanes across each of these sorting methods.

A list of common questions and answers about hurricanes from NOAA

This FAQ answers many questions hurricane researchers at NOAA have received, sorted by category. The answers provide insights into hurricane classification and naming, forecasting their movement and growth, and tips for preparing ahead of landfall.

Most tornadoes occur during the afternoon and evening hours

While there is no official national tornado season as with Atlantic hurricanes, many tornadoes form in the presence of thunderstorms, which are fueled by solar heating and the energy released by the condensation of water vapor. The airflow instabilities created from this energy build throughout the day until the sun sets.

The way hurricanes are categorized may mislead the public to their dangers

The Saffir-Simpson scale categorizes hurricanes based on wind speed, but tropical cyclones' main dangers are storm surges and heavy rainfall. To better communicate risks to the public, a new system that incorporates hurricane size, water content, and other complexities should be developed.

Hurricanes may kill 300 times more people than officially reported

A recent study suggests that, since 1930, more than 3.5 million people have died due to hurricanes. This incorporates the long-term effects of storms on people's health and economic well-being, contributing to thousands of premature deaths each year.

Changes in Earth's orbital cycles influence the timing of ice ages

These cycles include changes in Earth's orbit shape, tilt, and wobble, all of which alter how much solar energy different parts of Earth receive over time. Due to orbital eccentricity, summers in the Northern Hemisphere last about 4.5 days longer than winters.