The science on the connections between extreme weather and climate change

A map of extreme weather events and their links to climate change

To track how the evidence on this fast-moving topic is stacking up, Carbon Brief has mapped every extreme-weather attribution study published to date. Read more about the findings from the comprehensive analysis.

What types of extreme weather can be attributed to climate change?

For decades, it was impossible to say that a specific weather event was caused, or even made worse, by climate change. But advanced research methods are changing that.

The field of attribution science seeks to determine whether specific phenomena, such as melting glaciers, droughts, and hurricanes, are driven by Earth's natural climate cycles or by human-caused climate change.

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of severe turbulence

Severe turbulence over the North Atlantic has increased by 55% over the past 40 years, driven by strengthened jet streams and storm systems. Ongoing increases in global temperatures, which fuel these changes, may triple severe turbulence incidents in the coming decades.

Climate science 101: climate change, its impacts, and potential solutions

How do we know that this warming is happening and that it’s caused by humans? How strong is the evidence? What risks can we expect and what can we do about them?

Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities have contributed to global warming

A 2021 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that such emissions were responsible for approximately 1.1 degrees Celsius (2.0 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming since 1850-1900. Without rapid, large-scale reductions in emissions, temperatures are expected to continue to rise, leading to more extreme weather events.

Climate change is influencing the spread of disease

Rising temperatures and water levels are forcing animals and pathogens beyond their typical boundaries. This article and its data visualizations explore the proliferation of climate-driven diseases.

How does climate change impact hurricanes?

Statistical relationships between sea surface temperature and hurricanes, analysis of century-scale Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane records, analysis of other observed Atlantic hurricane metrics, and more.

Understanding the 1.5 degree Celsius climate benchmark

As more parts of the world are facing extreme weather, from high temperatures to increased natural disasters, there is much debate about what can be done. MIT News explores and explains the 1.5-degree benchmark for limiting the effects of climate change. Read to understand where the planet stands in relation to this threshold and what can be done at the global, regional, and personal levels to “keep 1.5 alive.”

Discover trends in Earth's climate system: What are indicators of climate change?

A comprehensive deep dive tracking components of the climate system over time, such as temperature, sea level, sea ice amounts, ocean heat, greenhouse gases, and more (w/charts and graphs).

Learn all about different types of extreme weather

Find out in more detail about different types of extreme weather, from flooding to thunderstorms, from tropical cyclones to sandstorms, and more (w/ helpful videos).

Understanding how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is affected by climate change

An analysis of El Niño and La Niña patterns from 1901 to 2020 suggests that anthropogenic warming—global warming caused by humans—has at least partly contributed to increased ENSO variability in recent decades. While ENSO increases the likelihood of droughts and flooding across different regions, researchers say these severe weather events are made more extreme by greenhouse gas emissions.

Explore a series of interdisciplinary explainers on climate science

From animations on the quantum mechanics of greenhouse gases to a photo essay on how scientists acquire climate data, this collection provides detailed explorations of how different branches of science have contributed to our understanding of climatology.

Available data suggest that while hurricane frequency has not increased over the past century, average hurricane intensity has, a trend scientists attribute to rising air and ocean temperatures.

Even in nature reserves, climate change is driving rapid ecological collapse

Studies show a dramatic decline in insect populations, resulting in cascading global biodiversity losses across non-insect species. The balances in tropical ecosystems are the most affected by climate change.

Favorable conditions for wildfires are becoming more frequent in the western US

A new study of the American West shows that climate change is driving more days that are hot, dry, and windy—the perfect conditions for deadly wildfires.

Climate tipping points are irreversible changes to Earth's environment

Earth's natural systems have prevented these events—including the mass death of coral reefs, loss of the Amazon rainforest, and shutdown of Atlantic currents—but scientists believe they are unlikely to withstand continued stressors from climate change.

Explore an interactive global weather map, with overlays depicting real-time data on temperature, precipitation, wind, humidity, and pressure, which enable the tracking and monitoring of extreme weather events.

Explore Earth's future climate under different levels of warming

An incredible interactive project showing how global warming is projected to affect the world, from temperatures to rainfall, droughts and flooding, and more.

When signing the Paris Agreement, almost 200 nations committed to pursuing efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, based on guidance from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

More extreme heat days are putting human health at risk in both the short and long term

America is generally experiencing more frequent extreme heat days, over a longer period, in certain parts of the country. The heat-related death toll is rising, and beyond those direct deaths, extreme heat can also have troubling ripple effects including elevated violence and decreased productivity.

The ingredients that make up severe weather

A seven-minute video illustrating how a storm is made. These factors—moisture, instability, lift, and shear—are explained through a series of data sets and creative, descriptive diagrams.

Heat-related deaths may have climbed by more than 50% over 20 years

Between 2000 and 2009 one study suggests annual heat deaths averaged around 2,670, but between 2010 and 2020 that figure was likely more than 4,000. Researchers studied 54 million death records from the contiguous US and created mathematical models to arrive at these figures, noting that a combination of aging populations and climate change drove that increase.

View an illustrative guide to climate change for kids

While climates have changed throughout Earth's history, they are now changing faster than usual, driven by the burning of fossil fuels and the release of greenhouse gases, which trap more of the sun's radiation.

Tracing the history of the philosophy of human extinction

Global catastrophe is at the center of much contemporary debate over climate, war, science, technology, and more, and our period is marked by a lurking sense everything we know—including the human species—could end overnight. It wasn't always...

Climate change creates conditions for more invasive species

Increasing temperatures shift the conditions native organisms are accustomed to, allowing those from warmer climates to move in with a greater chance of survival. Drought stress can cause invasive plants to absorb less herbicide, limiting the effectiveness of the control method, while melting ice can open new Arctic shipping routes, expanding the transport of species.

Heat is the leading cause of death in natural disasters

Floods are a distant second, followed by hurricanes. That's according to data reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Climate data is monitored globally using tools from satellites to backyard gauges

Scientists use satellites, balloons, ocean buoys, and land-based instruments to track climate variables like temperature, precipitation, and wind. These tools gather data from deep ocean waters to the upper atmosphere.

The weather time machine

A fun interactive on how old ships’ logs are giving scientists new insights into the past and future of the Earth’s changing climate (w/maps and pictures).

Hurricanes may kill 300 times more people than officially reported

A recent study suggests that, since 1930, more than 3.5 million people have died due to hurricanes. This incorporates the long-term effects of storms on people's health and economic well-being, contributing to thousands of premature deaths each year.

Hurricane Helene dumped enough water to fill Lake Tahoe

Alongside a rainstorm that moved into the region ahead of it, the hurricane released an unprecedented 40 trillion gallons of rain on the southeastern US, causing catastrophic flooding and at least 100 deaths. Meteorologists suggest climate change is exacerbating the severity of such events.

By absorbing 90% of the thermal energy trapped by greenhouse gases, oceans are providing increasingly more energy to power the rapid strengthening of hurricanes.

Rapid environmental changes are exacerbating natural extinction processes

Human activities behind climate change, habitat destruction, pollution, and overhunting have resulted in extinction rates up to 1,000 times greater than normal, triggering massive biodiversity loss. This has led scientists to refer to the current geological age as the Anthropocene era, in which humans are the dominant force shaping nature.

Heatstroke can reprogram your DNA, putting survivors at risk of future health problems.

Climate change threatens coral reefs by disrupting the symbiotic relationship between corals and algae due to rising ocean temperatures.

Climate shifts are projected to cause more cases of food poisoning

Research published in 2024 suggests that with more severe heatwaves and natural disasters, scientists expect there to be a rise in foodborne disease, especially in Africa and Asia. Already, there are an estimated 600 million food poisoning cases and 420,000 deaths annually. Diarrhea is the most common cause of those deaths.

An overview of the anthropocene: the scale of human influence on Earth

Human activity has fundamentally changed our planet. We live on every continent and have directly affected at least 83% of the planet’s viable land surface.

The total cost of weather and climate disasters from 1980 to 2024 is almost $3T

The NOAA’s Office of Coastal Management tracks the cost of damage, deaths, and other key statistics related to hurricanes and weather disasters. In 2024, there were 27 billion-dollar disasters, each averaging $1.2B more in damage than the prior five-year average.

Visualizing the multibillion dollar cost of US weather disasters

The US has sustained 332 weather and climate disasters since 1980 where overall damages/costs reached or exceeded $1B (including CPI adjustment to 2022). The total cost of these 332 events exceeds $2.275T.

Watch a visualization of how Earth's oceans impact its atmosphere, weather, and climate.

View the 55 ECVs used to describe Earth's atmospheric conditions

Essential climate variables include physical, chemical, and biological variables that meaningfully contribute to Earth's climate and how it changes with time. Many of these variables influence one another through feedback mechanisms across Earth's atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, biosphere, and geosphere.

Climatologists use past data and advanced models to forecast future climate trends

Unlike meteorology, which focuses on weather forecasting over several days, climatology identifies trends in data over periods of 30 or more years. This data can go back millions of years and help refine models to forecast centuries into the future.

Carbon dioxide acts as a 'control knob' for Earth's climate

Although Earth's ice ages were primarily triggered by slow changes in the planet's orbit—known as Milankovitch cycles—these changes do not explain the extreme temperature swings during glacial periods. Carbon dioxide acts as a feedback mechanism, intensifying both cooling during ice ages and warming during their ends by reinforcing the initial changes sparked by orbital shifts.

Rapid intensification is the increase in a hurricane's sustained wind speed by at least 35 miles per hour within 24 hours, which can strengthen it by up to two categories.

Atmospheric processes amplify the strength of storms by coalescing clouds

Research has shown that turbulent mixing of air at the edges of clouds and other small-scale thermal activity beneath them help clouds group together, intensifying short bursts of rainfall, especially in tropical regions. Simulations reveal this produces more powerful storms than predicted by older models, though they may occur less frequently.

The Arctic is greening from rising temperatures

This one-minute video summarizes a new study that used satellite data to look at plant life across the entire Arctic area for the first time. It found that from 1985 to 2016, 38% of the areas studied—including parts of Alaska, Canada, and...

Earth has shifted between extreme warming and cooling phases for 500 million years

Earth is in an interglacial period of the Quaternary glaciation, resulting in receding glaciers and mild temperatures. However, today's warming trend is occurring much faster than previous warming periods in the climate record.

Learn about various ocean-atmosphere cycles impacting global weather patterns

Although the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is among the most impactful, the North Atlantic Oscillation strongly influences weather patterns in the Northeast US by periodically changing atmospheric pressure over the Atlantic. The North Pacific Oscillation fluctuates atmospheric pressure and sea-surface temperatures that affect winter temperatures over much of the US.

Hear firsthand how scientists and policymakers saved the ozone layer

In this episode, atmospheric chemist Susan Solomon and Protocol architect Stephen Andersen recount how scientific discovery, diplomacy, and public pressure drove the Montreal Protocol—and share lessons for tackling climate change.

A third of Americans now live in wildfire risk zones

Climate change and human development into fire-prone regions have extended the wildfire season, with some areas experiencing fire conditions year-round. Extreme conditions, poor compensation, and exposure to carcinogens have complicated firefighter recruitment, further exacerbating wildfire risks.