Climatologists use past data and advanced models to forecast future climate trends

Explore hindcasting on climate models published since 1972

Hindcasting tests model forecasts against observational data to determine their accuracy. In this interactive, you can learn about the differences between eight climate models and evaluate them against available climate data.

Climate models use complex equations and supercomputers to predict future climate

The equations apply the laws of thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiative transfer to a 3D grid along Earth's surface. After solving them for each cell in the grid over a time interval, the results carry over to neighboring cells, and the process repeats into the future.

Climate data is monitored globally using tools from satellites to backyard gauges

Scientists use satellites, balloons, ocean buoys, and land-based instruments to track climate variables like temperature, precipitation, and wind. These tools gather data from deep ocean waters to the upper atmosphere.

Scientists use climate proxies—physical, chemical, and biological materials preserved in sediments, ice, and fossils—to infer historical climate data and determine past climate patterns.

How accurate are climate models?

RealClimate: A new paper from Hausfather and colleagues with the most comprehensive assessment of climate model projections since the 1970s. Bottom line? Once you correct for small errors in the projected forcings, they did remarkably well.

Discover trends in Earth's climate system: What are indicators of climate change?

A comprehensive deep dive tracking components of the climate system over time, such as temperature, sea level, sea ice amounts, ocean heat, greenhouse gases, and more (w/charts and graphs).

What are climate models?

Climate modeling what is a global climate model? What are their uses? Why do we believe them? What do they agree on? Why do they disagree? How do we improve them?

The field of attribution science seeks to determine whether specific phenomena, such as melting glaciers, droughts, and hurricanes, are driven by Earth's natural climate cycles or by human-caused climate change.

Global climate models simulate Earth system interactions and how human activity impacts climate

By splitting the planet into tiny 3D grid cells, supercomputers can run thousands of equations for each cell to determine the movement of energy, moisture, and other elements across Earth. The equations can also incorporate greenhouse gases to determine how humans affect the climate.

Explore how temperatures compare to historical averages in cities worldwide with this interactive global monitor.

Meteorological v. astronomical seasons, explained

Meteorologists and climatologists define seasons differently from “regular” or astronomical spring, summer, fall, and winter. Traditional seasons reflect the movement of celestial objects, known as the astronomical seasons; meteorologists mark seasonal change based on temperature averages.

Accurate climate models incorporate calculus to account for complex feedback loops

The simplest models assume uniformity across the Earth, with incoming energy from the sun being offset by the planet's albedo, or reflectiveness, which prevents the radiation from being fully absorbed. Incorporating elements such as atmospheric layers, latitude bands, geographic variability, and emissivity yields coupled differential equations quantifying Earth's interconnected systems.

Scientists can determine Earth's past climate conditions by analyzing air trapped in microscopic bubbles within ice cores—columns of compressed snow layers that build up over hundreds of thousands of years.

How does climate change impact hurricanes?

Statistical relationships between sea surface temperature and hurricanes, analysis of century-scale Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane records, analysis of other observed Atlantic hurricane metrics, and more.

In 2025, UK scientists began studying climate data from a 1.5-million-year-old ice core

The Antarctica sample will be melted and analyzed in Cambridge to learn about prehistoric environmental conditions. Researchers hope the ice core reveals how Earth's glacial cycles shifted dramatically around 800,000 years ago.

What's the difference between weather and climate?

A five-minute TedEd video exploring the differences between weather and climate – what they are, how we predict them, and what those predictions can tell us.

What types of extreme weather can be attributed to climate change?

For decades, it was impossible to say that a specific weather event was caused, or even made worse, by climate change. But advanced research methods are changing that.

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

Clouds' subtle climate effects require significant computational power to simulate

Responsible for reflecting sunlight and preventing thermal energy from entering the Earth system while also trapping energy and keeping it in the system, clouds are understood to substantially influence climate predictions. Because even supercomputers struggle to accurately model their dynamic behavior, researchers have used AI to indirectly incorporate clouds into climate models.

View the 55 ECVs used to describe Earth's atmospheric conditions

Essential climate variables include physical, chemical, and biological variables that meaningfully contribute to Earth's climate and how it changes with time. Many of these variables influence one another through feedback mechanisms across Earth's atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, biosphere, and geosphere.

The weather time machine

A fun interactive on how old ships’ logs are giving scientists new insights into the past and future of the Earth’s changing climate (w/maps and pictures).

Explore Earth's future climate under different levels of warming

An incredible interactive project showing how global warming is projected to affect the world, from temperatures to rainfall, droughts and flooding, and more.

A map of extreme weather events and their links to climate change

To track how the evidence on this fast-moving topic is stacking up, Carbon Brief has mapped every extreme-weather attribution study published to date. Read more about the findings from the comprehensive analysis.

Available data suggest that while hurricane frequency has not increased over the past century, average hurricane intensity has, a trend scientists attribute to rising air and ocean temperatures.

Explore a series of interdisciplinary explainers on climate science

From animations on the quantum mechanics of greenhouse gases to a photo essay on how scientists acquire climate data, this collection provides detailed explorations of how different branches of science have contributed to our understanding of climatology.

Scientists can determine Earth's past environmental conditions by analyzing sediment cores—accumulated layers of mud and remains of charcoal, pollen, plants, algae, and other organic material.

AI-powered models can provide low-cost, localized and accurate weather forecasting

These models can run on standard laptops, reducing the need for expensive supercomputers and expanding access to developing regions. AI forecasts can help farmers make informed planting decisions, improving crop yields and reducing costs.

Climate models have predicted sea level rise almost perfectly since the 1990s

The rise in sea levels is primarily due to melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica, and predicted levels have been confirmed accurate by satellite observations. Ocean currents influence regional variations in sea level rise, which are expected to accelerate.

Visualize real-time and historical atmospheric conditions from around the world

This tool provides live maps of wind, rain, thunderstorms, and other atmospheric phenomena overlayed on an interactive map of the Earth. Users can enter their location to explore local atmospheric dynamics and review historical weather conditions dating back to 1979.

View an illustrative guide to climate change for kids

While climates have changed throughout Earth's history, they are now changing faster than usual, driven by the burning of fossil fuels and the release of greenhouse gases, which trap more of the sun's radiation.

Earth has shifted between extreme warming and cooling phases for 500 million years

Earth is in an interglacial period of the Quaternary glaciation, resulting in receding glaciers and mild temperatures. However, today's warming trend is occurring much faster than previous warming periods in the climate record.

Climate determinism wrongly linked human traits and societal progress to geography

Historically rooted in Greek philosophy, its ideas used the latitudes where people were located to justify racial hierarchies, casting tropical peoples as lazy or inferior. These biases still influence how media and research portray people in climatically disadvantaged regions. (Some readers may experience a paywall.)

Carbon dioxide acts as a 'control knob' for Earth's climate

Although Earth's ice ages were primarily triggered by slow changes in the planet's orbit—known as Milankovitch cycles—these changes do not explain the extreme temperature swings during glacial periods. Carbon dioxide acts as a feedback mechanism, intensifying both cooling during ice ages and warming during their ends by reinforcing the initial changes sparked by orbital shifts.

Sets incorporating immersive mixed reality have transformed weather reporting

The technology enables presenters to step into virtual environments that incorporate 3D models and real-time data, providing more engaging and interactive forecasting. They have also facilitated the development of educational segments where meteorologists use virtual models to explain complex weather phenomena.

Understanding the 1.5 degree Celsius climate benchmark

As more parts of the world are facing extreme weather, from high temperatures to increased natural disasters, there is much debate about what can be done. MIT News explores and explains the 1.5-degree benchmark for limiting the effects of climate change. Read to understand where the planet stands in relation to this threshold and what can be done at the global, regional, and personal levels to “keep 1.5 alive.”

Explore an interactive global weather map, with overlays depicting real-time data on temperature, precipitation, wind, humidity, and pressure, which enable the tracking and monitoring of extreme weather events.

Watch 1 billion years of tectonic plate movement in 40 seconds

Researchers at the University of Sydney developed the model, incorporating changing plate boundaries rather than just moving continents, to better understand the changes to biological and climatic systems throughout Earth’s history.

Because various climate factors can affect the abundance of isotopes preserved in materials within the geologic record, these substances can serve as proxies for ancient climate conditions.

The expedition produced the first detailed climate records of the West

Lewis and Clark logged daily temperature, weather, and seasonal patterns throughout their journey, creating the earliest systematic meteorological record for the western territories of the United States. Their observations helped overturn longstanding views that weather west of the Appalachians was similar to the East Coast.

Watch a visualization of how Earth's oceans impact its atmosphere, weather, and climate.

Tornado chasers include scientists conducting field projects

Research teams use drones, mobile weather stations, and radar systems to capture real-time meteorological data, better understand conditions that favor tornado formation, and improve forecasting models. As of 2022, model limitations result in roughly 70% of tornado warnings being false alarms.

Climate science 101: climate change, its impacts, and potential solutions

How do we know that this warming is happening and that it’s caused by humans? How strong is the evidence? What risks can we expect and what can we do about them?

Paleontologists apply rules about rock layering, fossilization, and radioactivity to date geological samples

Concepts such as the understanding that older rock layers will form beneath newer ones allow scientists to compare the ages of samples from various layers. Although no geological site preserves evidence across all time, samples can be combined with fossils of known age, such as those dated by analyzing the decay of their radioactive isotopes, to reconstruct Earth's timeline.

Explore an interactive visualization of greenhouse gas emissions from 745 million sources worldwide.

Check out hurricane history where you live

The NOAA's historical hurricane tracker lets you explore over 150 years of data to see where hurricanes traveled and made landfall. The tool lets you search by location, name, or year; create maps and tables; and read NOAA storm reports.

The Köppen-Geiger system divides Earth’s climate into five main categories

This classification system, developed by a German-Russian botanist and a German climatologist, results from differences in the intensity of solar radiation and rainfall in different parts of the world. Each category is further divided into multiple coded zones.

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of severe turbulence

Severe turbulence over the North Atlantic has increased by 55% over the past 40 years, driven by strengthened jet streams and storm systems. Ongoing increases in global temperatures, which fuel these changes, may triple severe turbulence incidents in the coming decades.

Simulate the effects of government policies on climate projections

The En-ROADS tool lets you role-play as a global decision maker to explore the long-term effects of various policy ideas on climate. More than 341,000 people worldwide, including over 130 members of Congress, have used the simulation.

Cosmogenic nuclide dating reveals how long a surface has been exposed to air by measuring the abundance of rare isotopes produced when cosmic rays interact with minerals.

Environmental determinism links human traits and societal progress to geography

Also known as climatic determinism, the theory states that the latitudes where people are located influence their emotional and intellectual capabilities. Originating in Ancient Greece, these ideas were used throughout history to justify racial hierarchies.