What does the hurricane forecast cone really tell us?

What is the cone of uncertainty?

In hurricane forecasting, the cone of uncertainty results from connecting a set of circles representing where a hurricane is expected to be at 12-hour intervals. The size of each circle is two-thirds of the historical forecast error over the previous five years.

The cone of uncertainty predicts where a hurricane's center can potentially travel

A common misconception is that regions beyond the cone are safe, but the spread does not depict the full reach of a cyclone's wind, rain, or storm surges. The cone is not built from real-time storm data but is an average forecast error from the past five years.

All hurricanes have a central eye, where no extreme weather occurs, surrounded by intense winds and thunderstorms.

How does climate change impact hurricanes?

Statistical relationships between sea surface temperature and hurricanes, analysis of century-scale Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane records, analysis of other observed Atlantic hurricane metrics, and more.

Hurricanes spin due to differences in air and ground speed as they move across Earth

The movement of an object across latitudes causes it to take a curved trajectory because its speed no longer matches that of the ground beneath it. This phenomenon, called the Coriolis effect, explains why hurricanes spin counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere.

The way hurricanes are categorized may mislead the public to their dangers

The Saffir-Simpson scale categorizes hurricanes based on wind speed, but tropical cyclones' main dangers are storm surges and heavy rainfall. To better communicate risks to the public, a new system that incorporates hurricane size, water content, and other complexities should be developed.

Hurricanes, which rely on air consistently spinning in the same direction, cannot cross the equator because air curves in opposite directions north and south of it.

Check out hurricane history where you live

The NOAA's historical hurricane tracker lets you explore over 150 years of data to see where hurricanes traveled and made landfall. The tool lets you search by location, name, or year; create maps and tables; and read NOAA storm reports.

A list of common questions and answers about hurricanes from NOAA

This FAQ answers many questions hurricane researchers at NOAA have received, sorted by category. The answers provide insights into hurricane classification and naming, forecasting their movement and growth, and tips for preparing ahead of landfall.

How do hurricanes form?

Tropical cyclones, also called hurricanes and typhoons, cause catastrophic damage when they strike land. This four-minute video explores the life cycle of cyclones—how atmospheric conditions, ocean temperatures, and the Earth's rotation combine to create them, and how they are driven by winds and eventually weaken after moving over land.

Watch how scientists learn about hurricanes by flying into them

A specialized fleet of Air Force planes is built to fly into hurricanes and gather critical data from inside the storm. Beyond radar and microwave sensors, the planes are equipped with dropsondes—small instruments dropped into storms to measure pressure, temperature, and wind.

Hurricanes can grow by replacing their eyewall

A second outer eyewall can form around the primary eyewall surrounding a hurricane's eye. During an eyewall replacement cycle, the outer wall can weaken, collapse, and replace the inner wall, temporarily weakening the storm before it strengthens and grows.

Available data suggest that while hurricane frequency has not increased over the past century, average hurricane intensity has, a trend scientists attribute to rising air and ocean temperatures.

The NOAA has a specialized team of researchers that fly directly into hurricanes

The reconnaissance missions gather data for computer models to forecast hurricanes and improve disaster preparedness. Each flight can last eight to ten hours and uses a specialized Air Force fleet.

Tropical cyclones are called hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones around the world

Tropical cyclones are named differently based on their region of origin due to historical traditions and cultural importance. These storms are called hurricanes in the Atlantic and northeast Pacific oceans, cyclones in the southwest Pacific and Indian oceans, and typhoons in the northwest Pacific Ocean.

Hurricanes are classified according to their maximum sustained wind speed

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a rating system that organizes hurricanes into one of five categories. Categories three and higher are classified as major hurricanes, but all categories can produce deadly storm surges and rain-induced floods.

Fast-changing conditions during their formation make tornado forecasting difficult

The final steps of tornadogenesis—the process of forming a tornado—depend on near-surface details, such as local geography, which are difficult for radar to observe and affect how funnel clouds make contact with the ground. Inconsistencies in storm behavior have limited the amount of advance warning people receive before tornadoes touch down.

The risk of tornadoes and storm surges is greatest on the 'dirty side' of a hurricane

Winds in the right-front quadrant of the storm are amplified by the hurricane's motion and its rotation, which both move air in the same direction. Upon making landfall, these winds pull water from the Gulf and Atlantic onto land, creating storm surges. Tornadoes can also be generated from large differences in wind speed and direction at various heights.

Rapid intensification is the increase in a hurricane's sustained wind speed by at least 35 miles per hour within 24 hours, which can strengthen it by up to two categories.

Tropical cyclones consist of three main parts: the eye, the eyewall, and rainbands

The eye is a calm, clear central area surrounded by an eyewall of intense thunderstorms. Rainbands are spiral bands of clouds and thunderstorms extending from the eyewall.

Small elevation differences drastically protect homes in hurricanes

The construction of seaside homes has long involved building residences on elevated stilts, but this feature adds costs—and some elevated homes still fail. Explore the engineering behind the ideal height of a hurricane-proof building.

Explore hindcasting on climate models published since 1972

Hindcasting tests model forecasts against observational data to determine their accuracy. In this interactive, you can learn about the differences between eight climate models and evaluate them against available climate data.

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

Unlike hurricanes, tornadoes are not ranked based on measured wind speed

Technological limitations prevent direct measurements of wind speeds where tornadoes make contact with the ground. Instead, the Enhanced Fujita scale assigns a rating with a range of speeds based on how much damage a tornado caused to various types of structures. These types are more extensive than the original Fujita scale.

Hurricanes may kill 300 times more people than officially reported

A recent study suggests that, since 1930, more than 3.5 million people have died due to hurricanes. This incorporates the long-term effects of storms on people's health and economic well-being, contributing to thousands of premature deaths each year.

In Doppler radar imaging, a 'hook echo' helps identify a tornado-producing thunderstorm

Typically found in the right-rear part of a storm relative to its motion, the "hook" is the hallmark of a mesocyclone—a large, rotating updraft of air—within supercells, the most powerful thunderstorms. While tornadoes are known to develop within mesocyclones, they can also be detected by storm spotters trained to recognize tornado conditions in their communities.

By absorbing 90% of the thermal energy trapped by greenhouse gases, oceans are providing increasingly more energy to power the rapid strengthening of hurricanes.

Tropical cyclone formation require warm water and limited vertical wind shear

Ocean temperatures above 27 degrees Celsius fuel rising, moist air, which releases energy through heat as water vapor condenses into clouds. Significant changes in wind speed with height can spread out these upflows, preventing the eventual formation of a central column known as the eye.

See the lists of the worst hurricanes in the US through 2024

Several metrics, including wind speed, pressure, damage costs, and casualties, may be used to define the most devastating hurricanes. This page provides the top 10 hurricanes across each of these sorting methods.

How El Niño and La Niña affect the Pacific and Atlantic hurricane seasons

During El Niño, trade winds push warm waters across the Pacific toward northwest South America, affecting atmospheric circulation. The resulting strengthening of vertical wind speed and direction in the Atlantic basin disrupts hurricane formation, while the weakening of this wind shear in the central and eastern Pacific basins increases hurricane likelihood. El Niña, conversely, has the opposite impacts.

Learn all about different types of extreme weather

Find out in more detail about different types of extreme weather, from flooding to thunderstorms, from tropical cyclones to sandstorms, and more (w/ helpful videos).

Storm surges, not winds, are the leading cause of hurricane-related fatalities

A storm surge is an abnormal rise in water levels generated by a storm that exceeds predicted tides. It is particularly dangerous in coastal regions, where it can generate extreme flooding well before the hurricane makes landfall.

Due to a local microclimate, a thunderstorm nicknamed Hector the Convector appears almost every day from September to March at around 3 pm off the northern coast of Australia.

Why aren’t there hurricanes in Europe?

Despite their proximity to the Atlantic Ocean, the effects of the subtropical jet stream make tropical storms and hurricanes unlikely to reach Europe at full strength. Their remnants, however, can combine with other weather systems to create powerful storms.

The National Weather Service communicates tornado risks on a three-tier system

During a tornado watch, atmospheric conditions favor the development of a tornado, and residents in an area should be prepared to seek refuge. A tornado warning is issued if a tornado has been detected, while a tornado emergency indicates a violent tornado has touched down in the area, with severe threats to human life and property expected.

Dust from the Sahel and Saharan regions makes northwest Africa a hurricane nursery

NASA’s Convective Processes Experiment—Cabo Verde studied the early stages of hurricane formation, identifying how dust interacts with clouds over the ocean to produce the rainy disturbances that become tropical cyclones.

Hurricane conditions are created in a University of Miami wind-wave tank

The SUrge-STructure-Atmosphere INteraction Wind Wave Laboratory contains a 38,000-gallon wave pool connected to a wind tunnel that can generate air currents of up to 155 mph. SUSTAIN allows scientists to study how the atmosphere interacts with the ocean in extreme weather.

Climate models use complex equations and supercomputers to predict future climate

The equations apply the laws of thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiative transfer to a 3D grid along Earth's surface. After solving them for each cell in the grid over a time interval, the results carry over to neighboring cells, and the process repeats into the future.

Tornadoes produce inaudible signals to humans hours before forming

Researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have found that tornado-producing storms generate specific sounds below the range of human hearing, much like the infrasonic signals produced by earthquakes and avalanches. Although difficult to distinguish from wind noise, scientists hope to build systems that use these signals to improve tornado forecasting.

The total cost of weather and climate disasters from 1980 to 2024 is almost $3T

The NOAA’s Office of Coastal Management tracks the cost of damage, deaths, and other key statistics related to hurricanes and weather disasters. In 2024, there were 27 billion-dollar disasters, each averaging $1.2B more in damage than the prior five-year average.

Climatologists use past data and advanced models to forecast future climate trends

Unlike meteorology, which focuses on weather forecasting over several days, climatology identifies trends in data over periods of 30 or more years. This data can go back millions of years and help refine models to forecast centuries into the future.

Various types of tornadoes are distinguished by their shape, size, and location

Waterspouts form over water as long, thin columns of mist and air, while elephant trunks are tornadoes that elongate vertically as they become tilted during their formation, resembling the mammal's appendage. Wedge tornadoes are among the most powerful, often spanning a mile or more in width.

Explore the effects of tornadoes of different scales

In this simulation, users can adjust the tornado's diameter and rotation speed to see its impact as it passes through a series of trees and a one-story home.

Explore an interactive global weather map, with overlays depicting real-time data on temperature, precipitation, wind, humidity, and pressure, which enable the tracking and monitoring of extreme weather events.

Tornado chasers include scientists conducting field projects

Research teams use drones, mobile weather stations, and radar systems to capture real-time meteorological data, better understand conditions that favor tornado formation, and improve forecasting models. As of 2022, model limitations result in roughly 70% of tornado warnings being false alarms.

Every tropical storm is named from one of six predetermined lists maintained by the World Meteorological Organization.

The ingredients that make up severe weather

A seven-minute video illustrating how a storm is made. These factors—moisture, instability, lift, and shear—are explained through a series of data sets and creative, descriptive diagrams.

What's the difference between weather and climate?

A five-minute TedEd video exploring the differences between weather and climate – what they are, how we predict them, and what those predictions can tell us.

Since 1989, storms resembling Jupiter's Great Red Spot have been observed on Neptune, but darker and lasting no more than a few years.

Most tornadoes occur during the afternoon and evening hours

While there is no official national tornado season as with Atlantic hurricanes, many tornadoes form in the presence of thunderstorms, which are fueled by solar heating and the energy released by the condensation of water vapor. The airflow instabilities created from this energy build throughout the day until the sun sets.