Raising interest rates can help control inflation

The Federal Reserve can set interest rates below zero

Interest rates, the cost of borrowing money, are the primary tool the Federal Reserve uses to control inflation. During periods of deflation, setting interest rates below zero penalizes saving, encourages banks to lend more and moves more cash through the economy.

Interest rates have historically been an indicator of the US economy's overall health.

The Fed can use quantitative easing to stimulate growth once it has lowered the federal funds rate as far as it can go

This involves purchasing large-scale assets from banks beyond just Treasury bills and bonds. This effectively gives banks much more liquidity, with the hope that they will actively lend it out at cheaper rates and expand the economy. But quantitative easing runs the risk of sparking inflation.

'Floating rate' loans periodically adjust their interest rates in accordance with economic conditions

When the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in 2022 to combat inflation, interest payments borrowers owed to private credit lenders increased accordingly. Private credit funds benefited as loan returns increased, making the asset class attractive to investors at the time.

US inflation can generally be split into to two periods—before and after the Federal Reserve

A central bank itself does not mean significant inflation will occur, but economists generally point to factors like two world wars and the printing of money to finance the US federal deficit as primary drivers of price increases.

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon in which consumers see a broad rise in the prices of goods and services across the economy over time

Sustained periods of inflation are often caused by central bank policies including low interest rates or increased money supply. With more money chasing the same number of goods and services, prices tend to rise and the value of a single dollar drops.

The Federal Reserve's decisions can impact your money

Car loans, mortgages, business investments—these and more can be drastically impacted by the adjustment of the Federal Reserve’s federal funds rate. Alternatively, savers can earn higher, low-risk yields on their savings when the Fed’s target rate is higher.

Periodically, the Federal Open Market Committee decides whether to raise, hold, or lower the federal funds rate

The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which banks lend their excess funds through the Fed. This influences what banks are willing to pay consumers for their deposits in savings and CD accounts. Typically, the higher the federal funds rate, the higher the interest rates on CDs.

How interest rates affect homebuying

Rising interest rates impact every aspect of buying a home. This five-minute article gives a high-level overview of the relationship between the housing market and interest rates.

Central bank independence is correlated with lower inflation on average

Executives may seek to influence the central bank to reduce interest rates for political points. Since its creation in the early 20th century, the US' Federal Reserve saw the most interactions from the president during the Nixon and Ford administrations.

For everyday Americans, a relatively high national debt can lead to higher interest rates on financial products such as mortgages.

'Good deflation' happens when prices naturally track with supply, meaning prices change gradually

This tends to make products and services more affordable and normalizes the standard of living. Bad deflation usually happens when there are sudden changes to either supply or demand. Near-zero [interest rates helped create the real estate bubble that sparked the Great Recession when it crashed](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMo9mD8j7IA&t=91s) Because deflation distorts the value of money, deflation is particularly harmful for borrowers. Low interest rates made it easy for businesses and everyday people to take on enormous debt, which exacerbated the effects of the recession.

The Federal Reserve targets 2% inflation

It’s an arbitrary number originating from an offhand comment made by a New Zealand policymaker. The real objective is to maintain predictable prices for businesses and families to plan around while avoiding the dangers of deflation.

Some argue that the rising US national debt has become more important in recent months.

Inflation explained in under 3 minutes

Keep seeing inflation in the news, but don't have a great grasp on what it means or how it works? This overview from 1440 breaks down how economists think about inflation, what it means for the average consumer, and how governments attempt to keep rising prices in check through various policies.

The Fed operates within the open market as a competitive bidder of interest rates

Because it’s viewed as a risk-free platform to earn interest, whatever rate it sets becomes the default benchmark. To maintain its target rate prescribed by the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed has various tools it offers both commercial banks and home loan institutions.

No institution wields more power in US finance than the Federal Reserve, the central bank of the US—but opinion polls indicate that most Americans don't know what it does.

Prices can still feel high even if inflation is slowing

This is partly because a recent spike in inflation raised prices permanently, so even though the pace of price growth has slowed, prices have still gone up for good.

In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed began a program of quantitative easing

This program injected trillions of dollars of new money into financial markets to stimulate the economy. The move catalyzed an 11-year bull run and was repeated during the pandemic. Experts argue such power could worsen wealth inequality and contribute to bubbles in housing and finance.

The Federal Reserve is the most powerful financial institution in the US

The Fed controls the money supply, determines interest rates, and regulates the banking system. Established in 1913 after a volatile series of financial panics, the central bank has managed to retain its legitimacy despite broad critiques against its obscure and independent decision process.

Disinflation, a decrease in the rate of inflation, is different from deflation

Disinflation happens when prices are still going up, just at a slower rate. Prolonged disinflation is also often accompanied by a recession, making it painful for consumers.

How banking works

To do big things, people often need more money. Banks jumpstart economic activity with loans paid back with interest, and when things are working well, both people and the bank make more money. Formed in the Middle Ages amid competing currencies in Italy, banks—from the Italian for bench, banco—helped stimulate that era's commercial revolution, a massive expansion in Mediterranean trade and development. Find out the ins and outs of banks in this quick explainer video.

The Federal Reserve fought the Great Recession primarily with quantitative easing and repurchasing agreements.

During COVID-19, the Fed made drastic moves in attempts to shore up the US economy called quantitative easing

The Fed took an aggressive approach to help the US economy during COVID-19 beyond standard monetary levers, including broad purchases of mortgage-backed securities, Treasury securities, and more.

Learn about what causes economic bubbles, including how forces like cheap credit, soaring optimism, and feedback loops push asset prices far beyond fundamentals—until a single shock triggers panic, selling, and a rapid collapse.

Read former Fed chair Ben Bernanke's 2002 speech about preventing deflation

Very low inflation rates in the early 2000s in the United States and a worsening recession in Japan sparked some domestic concern over the threat of deflation. While Bernanke wasn't Chair at the time of the speech, he emphasized the Fed's role in preventing deflation.

Different CDs can have different term lengths, interest rates, and more

For instance, if a bank needs more deposits to fund loans, then it may offer high interest rates to attract deposits. Alternatively, a large bank with sufficient deposit reserves may have less incentive to grow its CD portfolio, offering lower rates as a result.

Banks make money by loaning customer deposits and earning interest

This means the interest you earn on your deposits is lower than what the bank earns on the same amount. Banks often keep cash reserves (though a minimum requirement was rescinded in 2020) but generally invest in government bonds, corporate securities, and loans to other banks. During bank runs, depositors withdraw more than the bank has on hand.

Average three-month CD rates reached a historical high of 18.65% in December 1980

Comparatively, average three-month CD rates reached a low of 0.09% in June 2021 amid the economic turmoil of the COVID-19 pandemic. When inflation began to rise in 2022, the Fed began initiating rate hikes to incentivize saving.

Roughly $5T of stimulus money flooded the economy during the pandemic

Recessions can last anywhere from months to years. To encourage economic growth, governments use policy levers such as lowering interest rates or introducing a stimulus. Economists credit massive stimulus funds for helping the economy quickly recover from a recession during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Economists define deflation as a sustained decline in prices across an economy

Deflationary periods are characterized by broad, significant price declines. The Federal Reserve can monitor deflation by tracking prices through price indexes, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which characterizes the average costs for consumers each month.

Bond yields are the returns investors earn from a bond's interest—and they're a key economic barometer.

The highest inflation ever recorded in US history was estimated at 30% in 1778, just after the Revolutionary War.

Stablecoins could give people in high-inflation economies access to stronger currencies

Specifically, stablecoins could provide a way to make sure these funds remain valuable during times of volatility. Some examples of people without access to the US dollar using stablecoins as a store of value have been observed in Venezuela.

Series I bonds are a form of government savings bonds created to shield your investments from inflation

Specifically, I bonds earn interest from both a fixed rate and an inflation rate. This article explains who might benefit from investing in I Bonds—for instance, people seeking to invest savings they do not need to access in the near future.

In 2023, the US money supply fell at its fastest rate since the 1930s

The money supply tracks how much cash, as well as electronic funds like savings accounts, is circulating through the economy. And a downward turn can be a bad sign.

33% of Americans say they don’t know very much about what the Fed does

While most Americans grasp the central bank’s impact on curbing inflation, they don’t know that the Fed is tasked with what is called a “dual mandate” to provide price stability and maximum employment. Furthermore, few understand the Fed is independent—it does not answer to Congress or the US president.

Some economists argue that the national debt is not a critical concern.

What is quantitative easing?

Quantitative easing was a relatively new method the Federal Reserve used to curb deflation during the Great Recession. In this process, a central bank digitally creates money that is used to purchase assets, usually government bonds. This lowers returns on low-risk bonds, encouraging investors to put their money in high-risk, short-term stocks, and moves money through the system.

The psychological aspect of deflation makes it difficult for policymakers to stabilize the economy

That psychological aspect is referred to as "the deflationary spiral." When prices start decreasing, people tend to hold on to their money to pay the lowest prices. But as prices start stabilizing, people resist increasing prices. (Some users may experience a paywall.)

Watch Ray Dalio explain how the economy works

Dalio describes the economy as a machine that runs on three main cycles: productivity growth, the short-term debt cycle, and the long-term debt cycle. Dalio says layering these three cycles on top of each other essentially creates a template for understanding changes in the economy.

The world's most famous case of deflation happened after Black Thursday

While the details are not fully agreed upon, many economists point to the Federal Reserve's tightening of the money supply as a prime culprit, leading to a significant deflationary spiral.

An inverted yield curve has preceded every recession that’s occurred in the last 50 years

Prolonged yield curve inversions can predict recessions, but even brief inversions can cause investors to react with knee-jerk reactions.

The private credit industry—which offers nonbank loans directly to businesses, particularly privately held midmarket companies—grew from a $250B asset class in 2010 to around $1.5T in early 2024.

Policymakers make complex trade-offs when considering tariffs—while they can generate government revenue and encourage the consumption of locally produced goods, they can also lead to higher consumer prices and may negatively impact economic growth.

What something costs is reflective of a balance in the market determined by the amount of demand relative to the supply of goods and services

Because economies are complex systems, a wide variety of issues influence this balance—including some things generally considered to be positive, like rising wages.

The Federal Open Market Committee is a 12-member voting body that sits within the Fed

The committee meets every six weeks to decide whether to maintain, raise, or lower the federal funds rate, which determines all lending costs in the US. It consists of the seven permanent central board members, the president of the New York Fed, and four rotating heads of the other 11 regional banks.

While the Fed is involved in issuing new generations of cash, the way it adds to the money supply does not involve printers

The majority of money in circulation is credit, not cash. This credit, which acts similarly to direct deposit from employers, is added to bank accounts by the Federal Reserve. The Fed also employs tools like the federal funds rate and open market operations to expand or contract credit.

Why Americans are drowning in credit card debt

Americans owe more than $1T to credit card companies. And with rising interest rates that prevent cardholders from paying down debt (not to mention the rising cost of living), that number is likely to keep growing. A podcast episode explains how the US got here, and what policymakers and individuals can do about it.

Congress banned banks from paying checking account interest for 80 years

Known as "Regulation Q," the act sought to stop bank competition for customers involving increasing interest rates in the 1930s. This competition led banks to make reckless investment decisions to pay higher interest rates. During the ban, banks competed by focusing on convenience (ATMs, branches), relying on fees, and building relationships.