The CME FedWatch Tool predicts the likelihood of future rate changes

Interest rates have historically been an indicator of the US economy's overall health.

Periodically, the Federal Open Market Committee decides whether to raise, hold, or lower the federal funds rate

The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which banks lend their excess funds through the Fed. This influences what banks are willing to pay consumers for their deposits in savings and CD accounts. Typically, the higher the federal funds rate, the higher the interest rates on CDs.

What’s the outlook for CD rates in 2025?

The federal funds rate can have a big impact on CD interest rates. That means it also affects the amount of money any given CD can earn you. To learn more about how CD rates will look in 2025, and how recent rate cuts correlate to that, read this article.

The Federal Open Market Committee is a 12-member voting body that sits within the Fed

The committee meets every six weeks to decide whether to maintain, raise, or lower the federal funds rate, which determines all lending costs in the US. It consists of the seven permanent central board members, the president of the New York Fed, and four rotating heads of the other 11 regional banks.

The Federal Reserve's decisions can impact your money

Car loans, mortgages, business investments—these and more can be drastically impacted by the adjustment of the Federal Reserve’s federal funds rate. Alternatively, savers can earn higher, low-risk yields on their savings when the Fed’s target rate is higher.

The Fed operates within the open market as a competitive bidder of interest rates

Because it’s viewed as a risk-free platform to earn interest, whatever rate it sets becomes the default benchmark. To maintain its target rate prescribed by the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed has various tools it offers both commercial banks and home loan institutions.

Explore current CD interest rates

Data itself is not (exactly) a financial advisor, but it can help you decide between a variable or fixed rate CD, or CDs with different term lengths. A chart from the Federal Reserve shows the three-month trend of CD interest rates.

The Fed can use quantitative easing to stimulate growth once it has lowered the federal funds rate as far as it can go

This involves purchasing large-scale assets from banks beyond just Treasury bills and bonds. This effectively gives banks much more liquidity, with the hope that they will actively lend it out at cheaper rates and expand the economy. But quantitative easing runs the risk of sparking inflation.

The two-day marathon meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee follow a logical process of information sharing

In a stately room in the Eccles Building in Washington, DC, the 17 participants of the FOMC and their aides report on economic conditions and decide monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve follows the health of the US economy by tracking the money supply

That includes all of the physical and electronic money in circulation. It tracks not only US coins and bills, but also the money that moves through bank deposits. The Fed uses metrics called trackers to follow different types of transactions through the money supply.

'Floating rate' loans periodically adjust their interest rates in accordance with economic conditions

When the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in 2022 to combat inflation, interest payments borrowers owed to private credit lenders increased accordingly. Private credit funds benefited as loan returns increased, making the asset class attractive to investors at the time.

Of the 12 voting policymakers at every Federal Open Market Committee meeting, 4 are present on a rotating basis

To allow for diverse regional perspectives in the votes on monetary policy, heads of regional banks hold voting power on two- or three-year cycles.

No institution wields more power in US finance than the Federal Reserve, the central bank of the US—but opinion polls indicate that most Americans don't know what it does.

During COVID-19, the Fed made drastic moves in attempts to shore up the US economy called quantitative easing

The Fed took an aggressive approach to help the US economy during COVID-19 beyond standard monetary levers, including broad purchases of mortgage-backed securities, Treasury securities, and more.

The Federal Reserve didn't institute an official no comment period before meetings until 2011

Although Fed governors have largely practiced some version of a blackout period before Federal Open Market Committee meetings where the board decides where interest rates should be since the 1980s, the official blackout period wasn't formalized until 2011. During the blackout, members of the Federal Reserve generally aren't allowed to speak publicly on macroeconomic or monetary policy in order to avoid any confusion over the board's decisions.

See all 16 former Fed Chairs ranked by stock market performance—from the Fed's first leader, Charles Hamlin, to Jerome Powell.

The Federal Reserve targets 2% inflation

It’s an arbitrary number originating from an offhand comment made by a New Zealand policymaker. The real objective is to maintain predictable prices for businesses and families to plan around while avoiding the dangers of deflation.

The Federal Reserve can set interest rates below zero

Interest rates, the cost of borrowing money, are the primary tool the Federal Reserve uses to control inflation. During periods of deflation, setting interest rates below zero penalizes saving, encourages banks to lend more and moves more cash through the economy.

Average three-month CD rates reached a historical high of 18.65% in December 1980

Comparatively, average three-month CD rates reached a low of 0.09% in June 2021 amid the economic turmoil of the COVID-19 pandemic. When inflation began to rise in 2022, the Fed began initiating rate hikes to incentivize saving.

Read former Fed chair Ben Bernanke's 2002 speech about preventing deflation

Very low inflation rates in the early 2000s in the United States and a worsening recession in Japan sparked some domestic concern over the threat of deflation. While Bernanke wasn't Chair at the time of the speech, he emphasized the Fed's role in preventing deflation.

In 2023, the US money supply fell at its fastest rate since the 1930s

The money supply tracks how much cash, as well as electronic funds like savings accounts, is circulating through the economy. And a downward turn can be a bad sign.

In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed began a program of quantitative easing

This program injected trillions of dollars of new money into financial markets to stimulate the economy. The move catalyzed an 11-year bull run and was repeated during the pandemic. Experts argue such power could worsen wealth inequality and contribute to bubbles in housing and finance.

While the Fed is involved in issuing new generations of cash, the way it adds to the money supply does not involve printers

The majority of money in circulation is credit, not cash. This credit, which acts similarly to direct deposit from employers, is added to bank accounts by the Federal Reserve. The Fed also employs tools like the federal funds rate and open market operations to expand or contract credit.

See how the level of public trust in the Federal Reserve Chair has changed over time, from Alan Greenspan's 74% trust level to Janet Yellen's 38%.

The central bank was designed to operate free of short-term political influence to prevent the Fed from making disastrous policy decisions

Although the Fed Chair and the six other Governors of the Board are appointed by the US president and approved by Congress, the Fed is not funded by congressional appropriation, and its board members are appointed to lengthy 14-year terms.

Housing 'starts'— new constructions—signal the health and future of real estate

The Federal Reserve Economic Data, or FRED, tracks monthly “housing starts,” the number of new residential construction projects being built. Some argue this data can serve as an economic barometer.

Visualize stock market's volatility between 2017 and 2025.

33% of Americans say they don’t know very much about what the Fed does

While most Americans grasp the central bank’s impact on curbing inflation, they don’t know that the Fed is tasked with what is called a “dual mandate” to provide price stability and maximum employment. Furthermore, few understand the Fed is independent—it does not answer to Congress or the US president.

'Planet Money' debates the financial indicators that defined 2025

In this end-of-year episode, "Planet Money" stages a playful debate over which economic indicators best captured the chaos of 2025—from tariffs to AI bubbles—and which signals may matter most as the US economy heads into 2026.

The Federal Reserve is the most powerful financial institution in the US

The Fed controls the money supply, determines interest rates, and regulates the banking system. Established in 1913 after a volatile series of financial panics, the central bank has managed to retain its legitimacy despite broad critiques against its obscure and independent decision process.

How much power does the Federal Reserve really have?

Although mechanisms for transparency exist, it wouldn’t be difficult for the incredibly powerful institution to go rogue in the wrong hands. In this podcast episode, analysts game out how such a scenario would go.

The 2024 US presidential election was a breakthrough moment for prediction markets

Founded in 2018 by MIT graduates, Kalshi won a federal appeals court ruling in October 2024 that allowed it to offer election contracts in the US. When prediction markets predicted President Donald Trump's win (more accurately than most polls), prediction markets were thrust into the public eye.

The idea that the median estimate of a group can be more accurate than individual expert estimates is called the 'wisdom of the crowd,' and dates back to the early 1900s.

In 2007, Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, warned of an impending financial crisis.

US inflation can generally be split into to two periods—before and after the Federal Reserve

A central bank itself does not mean significant inflation will occur, but economists generally point to factors like two world wars and the printing of money to finance the US federal deficit as primary drivers of price increases.

What is quantitative easing?

Quantitative easing was a relatively new method the Federal Reserve used to curb deflation during the Great Recession. In this process, a central bank digitally creates money that is used to purchase assets, usually government bonds. This lowers returns on low-risk bonds, encouraging investors to put their money in high-risk, short-term stocks, and moves money through the system.

Figure out what type of mutual fund is right for you with a tool that lets you compare different mutual funds, from rates to returns.

Central bank independence is correlated with lower inflation on average

Executives may seek to influence the central bank to reduce interest rates for political points. Since its creation in the early 20th century, the US' Federal Reserve saw the most interactions from the president during the Nixon and Ford administrations.

Prediction markets convinced regulators they're not gambling, but exchanging commodity futures contracts

Kalshi built a legal case that argues its yes/no bets on real-world events are futures contracts, and the relevant regulator—the Commodity Futures Trading Commission—agreed in 2020. Many states are now suing major prediction markets, arguing this legal case is faulty and obscures the true substance of the business: gambling.

Commodity trading is regulated by the CFTC to mitigate fraud and risk

Established in 1974, the CFTC regulates these markets (including swaps, futures, and certain types of options) to protect market participants from fraud, ensure fair trading conditions, and generally reduce financial risk.

The prices on prediction markets reflect how the collective forecasts future outcomes.

Congress mandated that the Fed streamline check payments

When it was first created in the 1910s, the Federal Reserve System became a crucial link between the nation's regional banks. The increasing number of checks used by the thousands of banks across the nation required a central operator, and the Fed was uniquely positioned to help. Learn more about the role the Fed played in the history of checks.

Modern prediction markets—the platforms where people can trade bets that pay out depending on certain event outcomes—started in Iowa in 1988.

The monthly US employment report is eagerly anticipated by Wall Street and has significant impacts on markets.

Use this student loan calculator to estimate monthly student loan payments.

Raising interest rates can help control inflation

While controlling a complex and dynamic economy is difficult, interest rates—more specifically, the rate at which banks lend each other money overnight—are a powerful tool. Generally, raising the rate makes purchases more expensive and cools an overheated economy.

Economists define deflation as a sustained decline in prices across an economy

Deflationary periods are characterized by broad, significant price declines. The Federal Reserve can monitor deflation by tracking prices through price indexes, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which characterizes the average costs for consumers each month.

The best (and worst) Federal Reserve chairs since 1914

Switzerland's currency is so strong that it could cause deflation

Economic instability in the United States in 2025 strongly benefited Switzerland, where the value of the franc relative to the dollar increased by about 12.7%. In response, the price of imports dramatically decreased, making goods overall much cheaper.

BlackRock sponsored the Federal Reserve's purchasing of corporate debt through exchange-traded funds during the COVID-19 pandemic, while it simultaneously sold some of its own shares on the secondary market—sparking controversy over potentially unfair advantages.