'Good deflation' happens when prices naturally track with supply, meaning prices change gradually

Falling demand and lower costs of production cause deflation

"Falling demand" refers to anything that changes someone's willingness to spend money on goods and services. Global recessions, fears of a worldwide recession, and a fall in the money supply are all factors that could lead to falling demand. Likewise, lower production costs allow companies to increase production, which can lead to a surplus in supply.

Economists define deflation as a sustained decline in prices across an economy

Deflationary periods are characterized by broad, significant price declines. The Federal Reserve can monitor deflation by tracking prices through price indexes, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which characterizes the average costs for consumers each month.

Disinflation, a decrease in the rate of inflation, is different from deflation

Disinflation happens when prices are still going up, just at a slower rate. Prolonged disinflation is also often accompanied by a recession, making it painful for consumers.

The psychological aspect of deflation makes it difficult for policymakers to stabilize the economy

That psychological aspect is referred to as "the deflationary spiral." When prices start decreasing, people tend to hold on to their money to pay the lowest prices. But as prices start stabilizing, people resist increasing prices. (Some users may experience a paywall.)

The Great Depression is one of history's most notable periods of deflation

The stock market crash of 1929 helped trigger a period of deflation in the United States by creating a drastic decrease in the total money supply. Because of the United States' central role in the world economy, virtually every single country was impacted by the recession.

The world's most famous case of deflation happened after Black Thursday

While the details are not fully agreed upon, many economists point to the Federal Reserve's tightening of the money supply as a prime culprit, leading to a significant deflationary spiral.

The Federal Reserve can set interest rates below zero

Interest rates, the cost of borrowing money, are the primary tool the Federal Reserve uses to control inflation. During periods of deflation, setting interest rates below zero penalizes saving, encourages banks to lend more and moves more cash through the economy.

Technological advancements are historically deflationary

Technological innovation can drive down costs and prices for businesses, which can increase real wages for employees. As a result, people have more money to spend and demand increases.

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon in which consumers see a broad rise in the prices of goods and services across the economy over time

Sustained periods of inflation are often caused by central bank policies including low interest rates or increased money supply. With more money chasing the same number of goods and services, prices tend to rise and the value of a single dollar drops.

COVID-19's shock to employment rates sparked some economists to fear deflation

COVID-19 simultaneously disrupted the supply chain and the labor market. Since the unemployment rate had hit record highs, some economists were worried that the supply chain would recover before the labor market. If that had happened, businesses would have been producing goods, but no one would have been able to buy them because they wouldn't have the disposable income to do so.

Read former Fed chair Ben Bernanke's 2002 speech about preventing deflation

Very low inflation rates in the early 2000s in the United States and a worsening recession in Japan sparked some domestic concern over the threat of deflation. While Bernanke wasn't Chair at the time of the speech, he emphasized the Fed's role in preventing deflation.

China had an inflation rate of -0.4% in August 2025

As opposed to other G20 countries that are largely struggling with high inflation rates, China is facing deflation. Sluggish growth in the country's once booming real estate market is just one glimpse into the consumer slowdown triggering deflation.

Inflation was a word before deflation was

The word inflation has Latin roots and technically means an influx of air, first appearing in the English language in the 1890s to describe bike tires. Deflation's first known mention in an economic text was in 1919.

Learn about what causes economic bubbles, including how forces like cheap credit, soaring optimism, and feedback loops push asset prices far beyond fundamentals—until a single shock triggers panic, selling, and a rapid collapse.

US inflation can generally be split into to two periods—before and after the Federal Reserve

A central bank itself does not mean significant inflation will occur, but economists generally point to factors like two world wars and the printing of money to finance the US federal deficit as primary drivers of price increases.

Raising interest rates can help control inflation

While controlling a complex and dynamic economy is difficult, interest rates—more specifically, the rate at which banks lend each other money overnight—are a powerful tool. Generally, raising the rate makes purchases more expensive and cools an overheated economy.

Japan's 1990s deflation followed the country's fastest growth period

The end of World War II ended Japan's isolation in the global economy, prompting what's now called the "Japanese Economic Miracle." From the 1940s to the 1980s, Japanese policy makers enacted ultra-loose monetary policies that pushed a ton of cash into the market and fueled rapid growth. But these policies ultimately helped create a bubble and sent the country into a deep period of deflation.

Inflation explained in under 3 minutes

Keep seeing inflation in the news, but don't have a great grasp on what it means or how it works? This overview from 1440 breaks down how economists think about inflation, what it means for the average consumer, and how governments attempt to keep rising prices in check through various policies.

Prices can still feel high even if inflation is slowing

This is partly because a recent spike in inflation raised prices permanently, so even though the pace of price growth has slowed, prices have still gone up for good.

For everyday Americans, a relatively high national debt can lead to higher interest rates on financial products such as mortgages.

Artificial intelligence might make companies too efficient—which could trigger deflation

AI innovation will likely decrease costs for companies and lead to a large increase in supply. That dramatic increase could conceivably bring prices down but keep supply high. However, AI's real impact will likely be complicated by its impact on human labor and the cost of new technology.

Switzerland's currency is so strong that it could cause deflation

Economic instability in the United States in 2025 strongly benefited Switzerland, where the value of the franc relative to the dollar increased by about 12.7%. In response, the price of imports dramatically decreased, making goods overall much cheaper.

In 2023, the US money supply fell at its fastest rate since the 1930s

The money supply tracks how much cash, as well as electronic funds like savings accounts, is circulating through the economy. And a downward turn can be a bad sign.

The Federal Reserve targets 2% inflation

It’s an arbitrary number originating from an offhand comment made by a New Zealand policymaker. The real objective is to maintain predictable prices for businesses and families to plan around while avoiding the dangers of deflation.

The Federal Reserve fought the Great Recession primarily with quantitative easing and repurchasing agreements.

What is quantitative easing?

Quantitative easing was a relatively new method the Federal Reserve used to curb deflation during the Great Recession. In this process, a central bank digitally creates money that is used to purchase assets, usually government bonds. This lowers returns on low-risk bonds, encouraging investors to put their money in high-risk, short-term stocks, and moves money through the system.

'Floating rate' loans periodically adjust their interest rates in accordance with economic conditions

When the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in 2022 to combat inflation, interest payments borrowers owed to private credit lenders increased accordingly. Private credit funds benefited as loan returns increased, making the asset class attractive to investors at the time.

The Fed can use quantitative easing to stimulate growth once it has lowered the federal funds rate as far as it can go

This involves purchasing large-scale assets from banks beyond just Treasury bills and bonds. This effectively gives banks much more liquidity, with the hope that they will actively lend it out at cheaper rates and expand the economy. But quantitative easing runs the risk of sparking inflation.

Some argue that the rising US national debt has become more important in recent months.

Interest rates have historically been an indicator of the US economy's overall health.

The highest inflation ever recorded in US history was estimated at 30% in 1778, just after the Revolutionary War.

Indicators of economic bubbles include euphoric narratives and extreme valuations.

In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed began a program of quantitative easing

This program injected trillions of dollars of new money into financial markets to stimulate the economy. The move catalyzed an 11-year bull run and was repeated during the pandemic. Experts argue such power could worsen wealth inequality and contribute to bubbles in housing and finance.

Subprime lending practices, which fueled the housing bubble, surged after 2000.

The Federal Reserve's decisions can impact your money

Car loans, mortgages, business investments—these and more can be drastically impacted by the adjustment of the Federal Reserve’s federal funds rate. Alternatively, savers can earn higher, low-risk yields on their savings when the Fed’s target rate is higher.

One signal that a recession has become a depression? When GDP declines more than 10%

There’s no single definition for recessions or depressions, but both are marked by sustained periods of declining economic activity. Depressions are more severe than recessions.

When consumers think an economic downturn is looming, the 'lipstick index' economic theory argues that sales of more affordable luxury items (such as lipstick) go up.

In 2025, the US credit rating was downgraded over concerns about the debt-to-GDP ratio.

Some economists argue that the national debt is not a critical concern.

Roughly $5T of stimulus money flooded the economy during the pandemic

Recessions can last anywhere from months to years. To encourage economic growth, governments use policy levers such as lowering interest rates or introducing a stimulus. Economists credit massive stimulus funds for helping the economy quickly recover from a recession during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Before the Great Recession, lax requirements to get a mortgage resulted in mass defaults that left nearly 19 million homes vacant.

An inverted yield curve has preceded every recession that’s occurred in the last 50 years

Prolonged yield curve inversions can predict recessions, but even brief inversions can cause investors to react with knee-jerk reactions.

A recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP, but in practice, these economic phenomena are more complex.

Stablecoins could give people in high-inflation economies access to stronger currencies

Specifically, stablecoins could provide a way to make sure these funds remain valuable during times of volatility. Some examples of people without access to the US dollar using stablecoins as a store of value have been observed in Venezuela.

US homeownership rates declined from the start of the Great Recession through 2016.

Why there's a snack recession

Inflation and economic uncertainty have driven many Americans to make cuts to their snack budgets, according to reports from major food manufacturers like General Mills, JM Smucker, and Campbell's. Major retailers have also observed lower-income consumers cutting back on nonessentials due to the macroeconomic environment.

Fast-food prices have increased more over the past 10 years than both full-service restaurants and inflation.

Central bank independence is correlated with lower inflation on average

Executives may seek to influence the central bank to reduce interest rates for political points. Since its creation in the early 20th century, the US' Federal Reserve saw the most interactions from the president during the Nixon and Ford administrations.

A 'debt trap' refers to the need for loans or credit to cover the expenses incurred from other debt

Debt traps can be caused by unforeseen expenses or inadequate savings and can be a brutal cycle to break. At the end of 2025, total household debt in the US reached $18.8T, according to data from the Federal Reserve of New York.

Read about why bans on short selling are a controversial policy

Generally, short selling is legal, but regulations often restrict short positions when a stock has experienced a sharp price decline (more than 10% in one day). However, negative feedback loops in times of financial crisis have given short selling a bad reputation. The government has temporarily banned short selling during previous market downturns—like The Great Recession of 2008 and the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic—but experts argue whether those bans actually improved market stability or just distorted prices.