Accurate climate models incorporate calculus to account for complex feedback loops

Climate models use complex equations and supercomputers to predict future climate

The equations apply the laws of thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiative transfer to a 3D grid along Earth's surface. After solving them for each cell in the grid over a time interval, the results carry over to neighboring cells, and the process repeats into the future.

Global climate models simulate Earth system interactions and how human activity impacts climate

By splitting the planet into tiny 3D grid cells, supercomputers can run thousands of equations for each cell to determine the movement of energy, moisture, and other elements across Earth. The equations can also incorporate greenhouse gases to determine how humans affect the climate.

Clouds' subtle climate effects require significant computational power to simulate

Responsible for reflecting sunlight and preventing thermal energy from entering the Earth system while also trapping energy and keeping it in the system, clouds are understood to substantially influence climate predictions. Because even supercomputers struggle to accurately model their dynamic behavior, researchers have used AI to indirectly incorporate clouds into climate models.

Explore a simulation of the greenhouse effect

Investigate how cloud cover, surface albedo—a measure of a surface's reflectiveness—greenhouse concentrations, and atmospheric layers affect the energy balance on a simulated planet. Using either the wave or particle models of light, users can also explore how changes in solar intensity affect planetary surface temperature.

How accurate are climate models?

RealClimate: A new paper from Hausfather and colleagues with the most comprehensive assessment of climate model projections since the 1970s. Bottom line? Once you correct for small errors in the projected forcings, they did remarkably well.

View the 55 ECVs used to describe Earth's atmospheric conditions

Essential climate variables include physical, chemical, and biological variables that meaningfully contribute to Earth's climate and how it changes with time. Many of these variables influence one another through feedback mechanisms across Earth's atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, biosphere, and geosphere.

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

The greenhouse effect was discovered by analyzing Earth's temperature

Using mathematical techniques developed to analyze heat transfer, Jean-Baptiste Joseph Fourier showed that Earth should be significantly cooler if solar radiation were the only contributor to its surface temperature. By considering that the atmosphere could amplify the sun's warming effect, he formulated what became known as the greenhouse effect.

What are climate models?

Climate modeling what is a global climate model? What are their uses? Why do we believe them? What do they agree on? Why do they disagree? How do we improve them?

Climatologists use past data and advanced models to forecast future climate trends

Unlike meteorology, which focuses on weather forecasting over several days, climatology identifies trends in data over periods of 30 or more years. This data can go back millions of years and help refine models to forecast centuries into the future.

Carbon dioxide acts as a 'control knob' for Earth's climate

Although Earth's ice ages were primarily triggered by slow changes in the planet's orbit—known as Milankovitch cycles—these changes do not explain the extreme temperature swings during glacial periods. Carbon dioxide acts as a feedback mechanism, intensifying both cooling during ice ages and warming during their ends by reinforcing the initial changes sparked by orbital shifts.

Climate data is monitored globally using tools from satellites to backyard gauges

Scientists use satellites, balloons, ocean buoys, and land-based instruments to track climate variables like temperature, precipitation, and wind. These tools gather data from deep ocean waters to the upper atmosphere.

The field of attribution science seeks to determine whether specific phenomena, such as melting glaciers, droughts, and hurricanes, are driven by Earth's natural climate cycles or by human-caused climate change.

Explore hindcasting on climate models published since 1972

Hindcasting tests model forecasts against observational data to determine their accuracy. In this interactive, you can learn about the differences between eight climate models and evaluate them against available climate data.

The Navier-Stokes equations are fundamentally accurate but unsolved in 3D

The equations model fluids and have been shown to have solutions for all systems in two dimensions. Averaging and approximations let the equations be used in climate models, aerodynamics, and medicine, though their use in some systems produces nonsensical answers.

An overview of Earth's atmospheric cells and how they distribute Earth's uneven heating

The Hadley, Ferrel, and Polar cells are circulation patterns that act like gears, moving warmer air from the equator to the poles. The rising and falling of air currents within these patterns creates semi-persistent regions of low and high pressure, which contribute to the formation of regional climates, such as tropical zones.

Grasp the earth's orbit around the sun with this interactive

See why seasons exist with this interactive simulator. Toggle between different views of the earth in relation to the sun and watch as the earth's axis causes the sun to shine at different angles throughout the year, causing the weather to fluctuate and more. This simulator clarifies a process many take for granted.

The Köppen-Geiger system divides Earth’s climate into five main categories

This classification system, developed by a German-Russian botanist and a German climatologist, results from differences in the intensity of solar radiation and rainfall in different parts of the world. Each category is further divided into multiple coded zones.

Atmospheric greenhouse gases trap thermal energy and make Earth habitable

The moon and Earth are at the same distance from the sun, but the moon experiences large fluctuations in surface temperature because it lacks an atmosphere to insulate it. Gases such as water vapor, ozone, carbon dioxide, and methane can intercept about 90% of the infrared radiation emitted by Earth's surface.

Watch a visualization of how Earth's oceans impact its atmosphere, weather, and climate.

Explore Earth's future climate under different levels of warming

An incredible interactive project showing how global warming is projected to affect the world, from temperatures to rainfall, droughts and flooding, and more.

How Earth's 'greenhouse effect' works

The so-called "greenhouse effect," where various gases in Earth's atmosphere trap heat from the sun, is a crucial factor in our planet's ability to sustain life. It's also pivotal in discussions over humanity's impact on changes in the Earth's...

When testing climate models, computer simulations suggest that Middle-earth should be covered by forests—matching a description in 'The Lord of the Rings'—and that Westeros's long winters in 'Game of Thrones' may be linked to a wobbling planet.

AI-powered models can provide low-cost, localized and accurate weather forecasting

These models can run on standard laptops, reducing the need for expensive supercomputers and expanding access to developing regions. AI forecasts can help farmers make informed planting decisions, improving crop yields and reducing costs.

Explore a series of interdisciplinary explainers on climate science

From animations on the quantum mechanics of greenhouse gases to a photo essay on how scientists acquire climate data, this collection provides detailed explorations of how different branches of science have contributed to our understanding of climatology.

Atmospheric processes amplify the strength of storms by coalescing clouds

Research has shown that turbulent mixing of air at the edges of clouds and other small-scale thermal activity beneath them help clouds group together, intensifying short bursts of rainfall, especially in tropical regions. Simulations reveal this produces more powerful storms than predicted by older models, though they may occur less frequently.

B2 models the interactions of air, water, soil, plants and microbes at the LEO

The Landscape Evolution Observatory at Biosphere 2 examines how factors such as climate change, water flow, weathering and community development impact landscape structures comprising 500 metric tons of crushed rock. Research is also conducted at biomes representing savannas, mangroves, coastal fog deserts, oceans and rainforests.

How geometry and uneven charge distribution make some molecules greenhouse gases

Molecules vibrate and rotate with different frequencies based on their elemental composition and shape, which can produce uneven distributions of electrons, as seen in carbon dioxide and water. The resulting unbalanced electric field can interact with electromagnetic waves of the same frequency, causing the molecule to absorb the radiation.

Earth's inner structure is a dynamic system of layers in constant, slow motion

From the crust to the core, each of Earth's layers—some solid, some liquid—plays a role in generating its magnetic field, moving tectonic plates, and cycling matter. These details are determined through modeling since humans have only drilled 12 kilometers underground.

Scientists can map Earth's shape and structure by measuring the ratios of certain particles arriving from different directions in space, as these ratios change with the density of the material particles travel through.

Convection flows in Earth’s mantle drive the movement of tectonic plates

These processes transfer heat from Earth’s core to the surface via rising magma plumes, while cooler, denser rock falls into the mantle at rates similar to human fingernail growth. These rates are determined by combining seismic data with computer simulations to model Earth’s interior.

Scientists can determine Earth's past climate conditions by analyzing air trapped in microscopic bubbles within ice cores—columns of compressed snow layers that build up over hundreds of thousands of years.

Climate models have predicted sea level rise almost perfectly since the 1990s

The rise in sea levels is primarily due to melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica, and predicted levels have been confirmed accurate by satellite observations. Ocean currents influence regional variations in sea level rise, which are expected to accelerate.

The Arctic warms more quickly than the rest of the planet because of the loss of surface ice, a lack of vertical air circulation, and the release of thermal energy as water vapor condenses.

Discover trends in Earth's climate system: What are indicators of climate change?

A comprehensive deep dive tracking components of the climate system over time, such as temperature, sea level, sea ice amounts, ocean heat, greenhouse gases, and more (w/charts and graphs).

View an illustrative guide to climate change for kids

While climates have changed throughout Earth's history, they are now changing faster than usual, driven by the burning of fossil fuels and the release of greenhouse gases, which trap more of the sun's radiation.

Scientists use climate proxies—physical, chemical, and biological materials preserved in sediments, ice, and fossils—to infer historical climate data and determine past climate patterns.

Understanding the 1.5 degree Celsius climate benchmark

As more parts of the world are facing extreme weather, from high temperatures to increased natural disasters, there is much debate about what can be done. MIT News explores and explains the 1.5-degree benchmark for limiting the effects of climate change. Read to understand where the planet stands in relation to this threshold and what can be done at the global, regional, and personal levels to “keep 1.5 alive.”

Changes in Earth's orbital cycles influence the timing of ice ages

These cycles include changes in Earth's orbit shape, tilt, and wobble, all of which alter how much solar energy different parts of Earth receive over time. Due to orbital eccentricity, summers in the Northern Hemisphere last about 4.5 days longer than winters.

Without greenhouse gases, Earth's average surface temperature would be below freezing

Atmospheric molecules that absorb and emit infrared radiation from the planet's surface effectively trap additional incident solar energy that would otherwise escape to space. Without the greenhouse effect, the planet's average surface temperature would be approximately -18 degrees Celsius (0 degrees Fahrenheit).

Meteorological v. astronomical seasons, explained

Meteorologists and climatologists define seasons differently from “regular” or astronomical spring, summer, fall, and winter. Traditional seasons reflect the movement of celestial objects, known as the astronomical seasons; meteorologists mark seasonal change based on temperature averages.

Predicting earthquakes is difficult because different rock types can withstand different amounts of stress before breaking and melt at different temperatures within Earth's interior, introducing uncertainty into predictive models.

The geoid depicts what Earth would look like if not for tides and currents, given the planet's rotation and uneven gravitational field.

From evaporation to precipitation: An overview of the water cycle

The water cycle is a natural process that continuously circulates water throughout Earth's systems. View this diagram from NASA to understand how the water cycle incorporates evaporation, condensation, precipitation, and more. First, the sun's heat...

Scientists have tested atmospheric models by firing rockets into the aurora borealis

Functioning like components of a CT scan, the missiles transmit signals that can be used to identify charged particles and electromagnetic currents in slices. The slices are then combined to construct a computer-based model of Earth's atmospheric structure, which is used to compare the accuracy of physics-based models.

Surface ocean currents are primarily driven by wind, tides, and Earth's rotation, while deep-ocean currents are driven by differences in temperature and salt concentration.

Wind is the movement of air caused by the sun's uneven heating of Earth

The tilt, curvature, and variations in Earth's surface composition across the globe cause different regions to receive different amounts of solar radiation. As the Earth spins and tries to achieve thermal equilibrium, air masses move and interact, creating wind.

Because some models of the universe do not incorporate time, it may be an emergent property born from our limited perception of the universe, rather than a fundamental property of reality.

Sets incorporating immersive mixed reality have transformed weather reporting

The technology enables presenters to step into virtual environments that incorporate 3D models and real-time data, providing more engaging and interactive forecasting. They have also facilitated the development of educational segments where meteorologists use virtual models to explain complex weather phenomena.

Earth's smooth, continuous motion as it orbits the sun prevents detectable motion

Although humans are sensitive to acceleration, Earth's nearly circular orbit around the sun and its slow spin relative to its size produce negligibly small, minimally changing accelerations. However, the changing seasons and the day-night cycle are evidence of Earth's movement through space, as verified by satellites and telescopes.