Climate models use complex equations and supercomputers to predict future climate

Global climate models simulate Earth system interactions and how human activity impacts climate

By splitting the planet into tiny 3D grid cells, supercomputers can run thousands of equations for each cell to determine the movement of energy, moisture, and other elements across Earth. The equations can also incorporate greenhouse gases to determine how humans affect the climate.

Accurate climate models incorporate calculus to account for complex feedback loops

The simplest models assume uniformity across the Earth, with incoming energy from the sun being offset by the planet's albedo, or reflectiveness, which prevents the radiation from being fully absorbed. Incorporating elements such as atmospheric layers, latitude bands, geographic variability, and emissivity yields coupled differential equations quantifying Earth's interconnected systems.

Clouds' subtle climate effects require significant computational power to simulate

Responsible for reflecting sunlight and preventing thermal energy from entering the Earth system while also trapping energy and keeping it in the system, clouds are understood to substantially influence climate predictions. Because even supercomputers struggle to accurately model their dynamic behavior, researchers have used AI to indirectly incorporate clouds into climate models.

Climatologists use past data and advanced models to forecast future climate trends

Unlike meteorology, which focuses on weather forecasting over several days, climatology identifies trends in data over periods of 30 or more years. This data can go back millions of years and help refine models to forecast centuries into the future.

What are climate models?

Climate modeling what is a global climate model? What are their uses? Why do we believe them? What do they agree on? Why do they disagree? How do we improve them?

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

How accurate are climate models?

RealClimate: A new paper from Hausfather and colleagues with the most comprehensive assessment of climate model projections since the 1970s. Bottom line? Once you correct for small errors in the projected forcings, they did remarkably well.

The Navier-Stokes equations are fundamentally accurate but unsolved in 3D

The equations model fluids and have been shown to have solutions for all systems in two dimensions. Averaging and approximations let the equations be used in climate models, aerodynamics, and medicine, though their use in some systems produces nonsensical answers.

Climate data is monitored globally using tools from satellites to backyard gauges

Scientists use satellites, balloons, ocean buoys, and land-based instruments to track climate variables like temperature, precipitation, and wind. These tools gather data from deep ocean waters to the upper atmosphere.

Explore hindcasting on climate models published since 1972

Hindcasting tests model forecasts against observational data to determine their accuracy. In this interactive, you can learn about the differences between eight climate models and evaluate them against available climate data.

Explore Earth's future climate under different levels of warming

An incredible interactive project showing how global warming is projected to affect the world, from temperatures to rainfall, droughts and flooding, and more.

View the 55 ECVs used to describe Earth's atmospheric conditions

Essential climate variables include physical, chemical, and biological variables that meaningfully contribute to Earth's climate and how it changes with time. Many of these variables influence one another through feedback mechanisms across Earth's atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, biosphere, and geosphere.

Climate models have predicted sea level rise almost perfectly since the 1990s

The rise in sea levels is primarily due to melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica, and predicted levels have been confirmed accurate by satellite observations. Ocean currents influence regional variations in sea level rise, which are expected to accelerate.

Explore a simulation of the greenhouse effect

Investigate how cloud cover, surface albedo—a measure of a surface's reflectiveness—greenhouse concentrations, and atmospheric layers affect the energy balance on a simulated planet. Using either the wave or particle models of light, users can also explore how changes in solar intensity affect planetary surface temperature.

Scientists use climate proxies—physical, chemical, and biological materials preserved in sediments, ice, and fossils—to infer historical climate data and determine past climate patterns.

The greenhouse effect was discovered by analyzing Earth's temperature

Using mathematical techniques developed to analyze heat transfer, Jean-Baptiste Joseph Fourier showed that Earth should be significantly cooler if solar radiation were the only contributor to its surface temperature. By considering that the atmosphere could amplify the sun's warming effect, he formulated what became known as the greenhouse effect.

The field of attribution science seeks to determine whether specific phenomena, such as melting glaciers, droughts, and hurricanes, are driven by Earth's natural climate cycles or by human-caused climate change.

AI-powered models can provide low-cost, localized and accurate weather forecasting

These models can run on standard laptops, reducing the need for expensive supercomputers and expanding access to developing regions. AI forecasts can help farmers make informed planting decisions, improving crop yields and reducing costs.

An overview of Earth's atmospheric cells and how they distribute Earth's uneven heating

The Hadley, Ferrel, and Polar cells are circulation patterns that act like gears, moving warmer air from the equator to the poles. The rising and falling of air currents within these patterns creates semi-persistent regions of low and high pressure, which contribute to the formation of regional climates, such as tropical zones.

Scientists can determine Earth's past climate conditions by analyzing air trapped in microscopic bubbles within ice cores—columns of compressed snow layers that build up over hundreds of thousands of years.

Carbon dioxide acts as a 'control knob' for Earth's climate

Although Earth's ice ages were primarily triggered by slow changes in the planet's orbit—known as Milankovitch cycles—these changes do not explain the extreme temperature swings during glacial periods. Carbon dioxide acts as a feedback mechanism, intensifying both cooling during ice ages and warming during their ends by reinforcing the initial changes sparked by orbital shifts.

Explore a series of interdisciplinary explainers on climate science

From animations on the quantum mechanics of greenhouse gases to a photo essay on how scientists acquire climate data, this collection provides detailed explorations of how different branches of science have contributed to our understanding of climatology.

Quantum computers can simulate nature more effectively than classical computers

Ordinary computers struggle to simulate quantum fields due to entanglement, but systems built from those elements can model the complexity. Systems using particle in more than two states—qudits—have successfully modeled 2D electromagnetic fields and done so more efficiently.

The weather time machine

A fun interactive on how old ships’ logs are giving scientists new insights into the past and future of the Earth’s changing climate (w/maps and pictures).

View an illustrative guide to climate change for kids

While climates have changed throughout Earth's history, they are now changing faster than usual, driven by the burning of fossil fuels and the release of greenhouse gases, which trap more of the sun's radiation.

View 3D renderings of atomic orbitals created with quantum mechanics

Scientists use the Schrödinger equation to determine how a system governed by a wavefunction—an equation that predicts the probability of certain outcomes—evolves with time. Computers can animate atomic structure and behavior by depicting the wavefunction as a fluid that guides a particle, like water moving a speck of dust.

Surface ocean currents are primarily driven by wind, tides, and Earth's rotation, while deep-ocean currents are driven by differences in temperature and salt concentration.

Convection flows in Earth’s mantle drive the movement of tectonic plates

These processes transfer heat from Earth’s core to the surface via rising magma plumes, while cooler, denser rock falls into the mantle at rates similar to human fingernail growth. These rates are determined by combining seismic data with computer simulations to model Earth’s interior.

Watch a visualization of how Earth's oceans impact its atmosphere, weather, and climate.

More than 2,000 years ago, a hand-powered model of the solar system called the Antikythera mechanism—the oldest example of an analog computer—could predict solar eclipses.

Discover trends in Earth's climate system: What are indicators of climate change?

A comprehensive deep dive tracking components of the climate system over time, such as temperature, sea level, sea ice amounts, ocean heat, greenhouse gases, and more (w/charts and graphs).

Scientists have tested atmospheric models by firing rockets into the aurora borealis

Functioning like components of a CT scan, the missiles transmit signals that can be used to identify charged particles and electromagnetic currents in slices. The slices are then combined to construct a computer-based model of Earth's atmospheric structure, which is used to compare the accuracy of physics-based models.

Predicting earthquakes is difficult because different rock types can withstand different amounts of stress before breaking and melt at different temperatures within Earth's interior, introducing uncertainty into predictive models.

Thermodynamics makes building data centers in space to cool equipment impractical

Rather than cooling via interactions with flowing cold air or water, data centers in space would dissipate energy primarily by radiation, in which an object at any temperature above absolute zero emits light. This method is much less efficient at cooling and would require hyperscale data centers to have radiator panels thousands of times larger than those on the International Space Station.

Sets incorporating immersive mixed reality have transformed weather reporting

The technology enables presenters to step into virtual environments that incorporate 3D models and real-time data, providing more engaging and interactive forecasting. They have also facilitated the development of educational segments where meteorologists use virtual models to explain complex weather phenomena.

Atmospheric processes amplify the strength of storms by coalescing clouds

Research has shown that turbulent mixing of air at the edges of clouds and other small-scale thermal activity beneath them help clouds group together, intensifying short bursts of rainfall, especially in tropical regions. Simulations reveal this produces more powerful storms than predicted by older models, though they may occur less frequently.

Simulate the effects of government policies on climate projections

The En-ROADS tool lets you role-play as a global decision maker to explore the long-term effects of various policy ideas on climate. More than 341,000 people worldwide, including over 130 members of Congress, have used the simulation.

Earth's inner structure is a dynamic system of layers in constant, slow motion

From the crust to the core, each of Earth's layers—some solid, some liquid—plays a role in generating its magnetic field, moving tectonic plates, and cycling matter. These details are determined through modeling since humans have only drilled 12 kilometers underground.

The Köppen-Geiger system divides Earth’s climate into five main categories

This classification system, developed by a German-Russian botanist and a German climatologist, results from differences in the intensity of solar radiation and rainfall in different parts of the world. Each category is further divided into multiple coded zones.

When testing climate models, computer simulations suggest that Middle-earth should be covered by forests—matching a description in 'The Lord of the Rings'—and that Westeros's long winters in 'Game of Thrones' may be linked to a wobbling planet.

Grasp the earth's orbit around the sun with this interactive

See why seasons exist with this interactive simulator. Toggle between different views of the earth in relation to the sun and watch as the earth's axis causes the sun to shine at different angles throughout the year, causing the weather to fluctuate and more. This simulator clarifies a process many take for granted.

Mathematics proves turbulence's chaos creates super diffusion

Turbulent flow is responsible for the rapid scattering of dandelion seeds, volcanic ash, and untied balloons. Its swirling behavior accelerates particle scattering faster than other mixing methods, as particles acquire energy from the interactions of eddies.

Earth has shifted between extreme warming and cooling phases for 500 million years

Earth is in an interglacial period of the Quaternary glaciation, resulting in receding glaciers and mild temperatures. However, today's warming trend is occurring much faster than previous warming periods in the climate record.

In 2025, UK scientists began studying climate data from a 1.5-million-year-old ice core

The Antarctica sample will be melted and analyzed in Cambridge to learn about prehistoric environmental conditions. Researchers hope the ice core reveals how Earth's glacial cycles shifted dramatically around 800,000 years ago.

Explore how temperatures compare to historical averages in cities worldwide with this interactive global monitor.

Learn why modern scientific patterns have been described as theories rather than laws

After confirming that the accuracy of some laws of physics is limited to certain domains, science became more hesitant to categorize identified mathematical relationships, such as quantum mechanics, as unchanging laws. Instead, these recent, complex frameworks are designated as theories to acknowledge that they are conditional and may be part of a larger, more complete future framework.

Scientists can determine Earth's past environmental conditions by analyzing sediment cores—accumulated layers of mud and remains of charcoal, pollen, plants, algae, and other organic material.

Watch 1 billion years of tectonic plate movement in 40 seconds

Researchers at the University of Sydney developed the model, incorporating changing plate boundaries rather than just moving continents, to better understand the changes to biological and climatic systems throughout Earth’s history.

Watch a visualization of global ocean currents from NASA's Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean project.

Explore an interactive visualization of greenhouse gas emissions from 745 million sources worldwide.