Explore hindcasting on climate models published since 1972

Climatologists use past data and advanced models to forecast future climate trends

Unlike meteorology, which focuses on weather forecasting over several days, climatology identifies trends in data over periods of 30 or more years. This data can go back millions of years and help refine models to forecast centuries into the future.

How accurate are climate models?

RealClimate: A new paper from Hausfather and colleagues with the most comprehensive assessment of climate model projections since the 1970s. Bottom line? Once you correct for small errors in the projected forcings, they did remarkably well.

Scientists use climate proxies—physical, chemical, and biological materials preserved in sediments, ice, and fossils—to infer historical climate data and determine past climate patterns.

Climate data is monitored globally using tools from satellites to backyard gauges

Scientists use satellites, balloons, ocean buoys, and land-based instruments to track climate variables like temperature, precipitation, and wind. These tools gather data from deep ocean waters to the upper atmosphere.

Climate models use complex equations and supercomputers to predict future climate

The equations apply the laws of thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiative transfer to a 3D grid along Earth's surface. After solving them for each cell in the grid over a time interval, the results carry over to neighboring cells, and the process repeats into the future.

Global climate models simulate Earth system interactions and how human activity impacts climate

By splitting the planet into tiny 3D grid cells, supercomputers can run thousands of equations for each cell to determine the movement of energy, moisture, and other elements across Earth. The equations can also incorporate greenhouse gases to determine how humans affect the climate.

Explore how temperatures compare to historical averages in cities worldwide with this interactive global monitor.

What are climate models?

Climate modeling what is a global climate model? What are their uses? Why do we believe them? What do they agree on? Why do they disagree? How do we improve them?

Explore Earth's future climate under different levels of warming

An incredible interactive project showing how global warming is projected to affect the world, from temperatures to rainfall, droughts and flooding, and more.

Discover trends in Earth's climate system: What are indicators of climate change?

A comprehensive deep dive tracking components of the climate system over time, such as temperature, sea level, sea ice amounts, ocean heat, greenhouse gases, and more (w/charts and graphs).

The weather time machine

A fun interactive on how old ships’ logs are giving scientists new insights into the past and future of the Earth’s changing climate (w/maps and pictures).

Visualize real-time and historical atmospheric conditions from around the world

This tool provides live maps of wind, rain, thunderstorms, and other atmospheric phenomena overlayed on an interactive map of the Earth. Users can enter their location to explore local atmospheric dynamics and review historical weather conditions dating back to 1979.

Simulate the effects of government policies on climate projections

The En-ROADS tool lets you role-play as a global decision maker to explore the long-term effects of various policy ideas on climate. More than 341,000 people worldwide, including over 130 members of Congress, have used the simulation.

Accurate climate models incorporate calculus to account for complex feedback loops

The simplest models assume uniformity across the Earth, with incoming energy from the sun being offset by the planet's albedo, or reflectiveness, which prevents the radiation from being fully absorbed. Incorporating elements such as atmospheric layers, latitude bands, geographic variability, and emissivity yields coupled differential equations quantifying Earth's interconnected systems.

The field of attribution science seeks to determine whether specific phenomena, such as melting glaciers, droughts, and hurricanes, are driven by Earth's natural climate cycles or by human-caused climate change.

Explore an interactive visualization of greenhouse gas emissions from 745 million sources worldwide.

Explore a simulation of the greenhouse effect

Investigate how cloud cover, surface albedo—a measure of a surface's reflectiveness—greenhouse concentrations, and atmospheric layers affect the energy balance on a simulated planet. Using either the wave or particle models of light, users can also explore how changes in solar intensity affect planetary surface temperature.

View the 55 ECVs used to describe Earth's atmospheric conditions

Essential climate variables include physical, chemical, and biological variables that meaningfully contribute to Earth's climate and how it changes with time. Many of these variables influence one another through feedback mechanisms across Earth's atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, biosphere, and geosphere.

Explore an interactive global weather map, with overlays depicting real-time data on temperature, precipitation, wind, humidity, and pressure, which enable the tracking and monitoring of extreme weather events.

Scientists can determine Earth's past climate conditions by analyzing air trapped in microscopic bubbles within ice cores—columns of compressed snow layers that build up over hundreds of thousands of years.

How does climate change impact hurricanes?

Statistical relationships between sea surface temperature and hurricanes, analysis of century-scale Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane records, analysis of other observed Atlantic hurricane metrics, and more.

Clouds' subtle climate effects require significant computational power to simulate

Responsible for reflecting sunlight and preventing thermal energy from entering the Earth system while also trapping energy and keeping it in the system, clouds are understood to substantially influence climate predictions. Because even supercomputers struggle to accurately model their dynamic behavior, researchers have used AI to indirectly incorporate clouds into climate models.

Sets incorporating immersive mixed reality have transformed weather reporting

The technology enables presenters to step into virtual environments that incorporate 3D models and real-time data, providing more engaging and interactive forecasting. They have also facilitated the development of educational segments where meteorologists use virtual models to explain complex weather phenomena.

Check out hurricane history where you live

The NOAA's historical hurricane tracker lets you explore over 150 years of data to see where hurricanes traveled and made landfall. The tool lets you search by location, name, or year; create maps and tables; and read NOAA storm reports.

AI-powered models can provide low-cost, localized and accurate weather forecasting

These models can run on standard laptops, reducing the need for expensive supercomputers and expanding access to developing regions. AI forecasts can help farmers make informed planting decisions, improving crop yields and reducing costs.

Explore and visualize AI-driven riverine and flash-flood forecasts across more than 150 countries to anticipate these natural disasters up to seven days in advance.

Explore a series of interdisciplinary explainers on climate science

From animations on the quantum mechanics of greenhouse gases to a photo essay on how scientists acquire climate data, this collection provides detailed explorations of how different branches of science have contributed to our understanding of climatology.

What's the difference between weather and climate?

A five-minute TedEd video exploring the differences between weather and climate – what they are, how we predict them, and what those predictions can tell us.

A map of extreme weather events and their links to climate change

To track how the evidence on this fast-moving topic is stacking up, Carbon Brief has mapped every extreme-weather attribution study published to date. Read more about the findings from the comprehensive analysis.

Climate models have predicted sea level rise almost perfectly since the 1990s

The rise in sea levels is primarily due to melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica, and predicted levels have been confirmed accurate by satellite observations. Ocean currents influence regional variations in sea level rise, which are expected to accelerate.

What does the hurricane forecast cone really tell us?

Ever feel like hurricane forecasts change a lot? Hurricane forecast tracks might not mean what you think they do. Concentric circles are actually used to help form the forecast. Chief Meteorologist Bobby Deskins explains how you should really be reading these cones.

View an illustrative guide to climate change for kids

While climates have changed throughout Earth's history, they are now changing faster than usual, driven by the burning of fossil fuels and the release of greenhouse gases, which trap more of the sun's radiation.

In 2025, UK scientists began studying climate data from a 1.5-million-year-old ice core

The Antarctica sample will be melted and analyzed in Cambridge to learn about prehistoric environmental conditions. Researchers hope the ice core reveals how Earth's glacial cycles shifted dramatically around 800,000 years ago.

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

Scientists can determine Earth's past environmental conditions by analyzing sediment cores—accumulated layers of mud and remains of charcoal, pollen, plants, algae, and other organic material.

See the real-time numbers of ships traversing the canal each day

This platform uses satellite data to track chokepoints and trade disruptions along the shipping lanes that crisscross the globe. Search for data from more than 1,600 ports, or run the climate scenario simulator.

Visualizing changes in ocean temperatures between 2016 and 2020

How much does the temperature of the sea change in a given year? This visualization helps illustrate the changes by showing sea surface temperature data from January 2016 through March 2020. Sea surface temperature, which refers to water temperature at the sea's surface, plays a significant role in climate and weather.

Explore an interactive forecast of the future of the universe, from the return of Halley's Comet to the last light in the cosmos.

Explore a timeline of research from the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research

Since its founding in 1960, the group of research institutions has pooled together observational and computational resources to make significant advancements in the atmospheric sciences. These include the discovery of coupled atmospheric systems, the development of increasingly accurate climate models, and the creation of the National Scientific Balloon Facility.

What types of extreme weather can be attributed to climate change?

For decades, it was impossible to say that a specific weather event was caused, or even made worse, by climate change. But advanced research methods are changing that.

What is the cone of uncertainty?

In hurricane forecasting, the cone of uncertainty results from connecting a set of circles representing where a hurricane is expected to be at 12-hour intervals. The size of each circle is two-thirds of the historical forecast error over the previous five years.

Scientists have tested atmospheric models by firing rockets into the aurora borealis

Functioning like components of a CT scan, the missiles transmit signals that can be used to identify charged particles and electromagnetic currents in slices. The slices are then combined to construct a computer-based model of Earth's atmospheric structure, which is used to compare the accuracy of physics-based models.

Grasp the earth's orbit around the sun with this interactive

See why seasons exist with this interactive simulator. Toggle between different views of the earth in relation to the sun and watch as the earth's axis causes the sun to shine at different angles throughout the year, causing the weather to fluctuate and more. This simulator clarifies a process many take for granted.

Meteorological v. astronomical seasons, explained

Meteorologists and climatologists define seasons differently from “regular” or astronomical spring, summer, fall, and winter. Traditional seasons reflect the movement of celestial objects, known as the astronomical seasons; meteorologists mark seasonal change based on temperature averages.

Understanding how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is affected by climate change

An analysis of El Niño and La Niña patterns from 1901 to 2020 suggests that anthropogenic warming—global warming caused by humans—has at least partly contributed to increased ENSO variability in recent decades. While ENSO increases the likelihood of droughts and flooding across different regions, researchers say these severe weather events are made more extreme by greenhouse gas emissions.

Global CO2 levels as measured at Hawaii’s Mauna Loa Observatory, managed by the US government’s NOAA.

The Global Monitoring Laboratory conducts research on greenhouse gas and carbon cycle feedbacks, changes in clouds, aerosols, and surface radiation, and recovery of stratospheric ozone.

Watch how scientists learn about hurricanes by flying into them

A specialized fleet of Air Force planes is built to fly into hurricanes and gather critical data from inside the storm. Beyond radar and microwave sensors, the planes are equipped with dropsondes—small instruments dropped into storms to measure pressure, temperature, and wind.

Watch a visualization of how Earth's oceans impact its atmosphere, weather, and climate.

The cone of uncertainty predicts where a hurricane's center can potentially travel

A common misconception is that regions beyond the cone are safe, but the spread does not depict the full reach of a cyclone's wind, rain, or storm surges. The cone is not built from real-time storm data but is an average forecast error from the past five years.

How scientists use data to anticipate the phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Sea-surface temperatures across various regions of the equatorial Pacific Ocean can be compared with ocean temperatures elsewhere in the tropics to identify anomalies that indicate where in the ENSO cycle Earth finds itself. The "Niño 3.4" region in particular—known as the Ocean Niño Index—is a key indicator of ENSO phase and intensity.