The world's most famous case of deflation happened after Black Thursday

The Great Depression is one of history's most notable periods of deflation

The stock market crash of 1929 helped trigger a period of deflation in the United States by creating a drastic decrease in the total money supply. Because of the United States' central role in the world economy, virtually every single country was impacted by the recession.

'Good deflation' happens when prices naturally track with supply, meaning prices change gradually

This tends to make products and services more affordable and normalizes the standard of living. Bad deflation usually happens when there are sudden changes to either supply or demand. Near-zero [interest rates helped create the real estate bubble that sparked the Great Recession when it crashed](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMo9mD8j7IA&t=91s) Because deflation distorts the value of money, deflation is particularly harmful for borrowers. Low interest rates made it easy for businesses and everyday people to take on enormous debt, which exacerbated the effects of the recession.

Economists define deflation as a sustained decline in prices across an economy

Deflationary periods are characterized by broad, significant price declines. The Federal Reserve can monitor deflation by tracking prices through price indexes, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which characterizes the average costs for consumers each month.

US inflation can generally be split into to two periods—before and after the Federal Reserve

A central bank itself does not mean significant inflation will occur, but economists generally point to factors like two world wars and the printing of money to finance the US federal deficit as primary drivers of price increases.

Falling demand and lower costs of production cause deflation

"Falling demand" refers to anything that changes someone's willingness to spend money on goods and services. Global recessions, fears of a worldwide recession, and a fall in the money supply are all factors that could lead to falling demand. Likewise, lower production costs allow companies to increase production, which can lead to a surplus in supply.

The psychological aspect of deflation makes it difficult for policymakers to stabilize the economy

That psychological aspect is referred to as "the deflationary spiral." When prices start decreasing, people tend to hold on to their money to pay the lowest prices. But as prices start stabilizing, people resist increasing prices. (Some users may experience a paywall.)

Read former Fed chair Ben Bernanke's 2002 speech about preventing deflation

Very low inflation rates in the early 2000s in the United States and a worsening recession in Japan sparked some domestic concern over the threat of deflation. While Bernanke wasn't Chair at the time of the speech, he emphasized the Fed's role in preventing deflation.

The term ‘Black Friday’ originally referred to a 1869 US gold market crash

After financiers Jay Gould and James Fisk attempted to corner the US gold market, the market crashed on September 24, 1869, bankrupting thousands of investors and sending stock prices plummeting by 18%. That day became known as “Black Friday” long before the unofficial retail holiday emerged.

In 2023, the US money supply fell at its fastest rate since the 1930s

The money supply tracks how much cash, as well as electronic funds like savings accounts, is circulating through the economy. And a downward turn can be a bad sign.

The 1929 stock market crash is a defining example of a financial bubble burst

Fueled by margin speculation and intense optimism, stock prices soared to unsustainable levels before collapsing in late October—erasing billions in market value within days.

In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed began a program of quantitative easing

This program injected trillions of dollars of new money into financial markets to stimulate the economy. The move catalyzed an 11-year bull run and was repeated during the pandemic. Experts argue such power could worsen wealth inequality and contribute to bubbles in housing and finance.

COVID-19's shock to employment rates sparked some economists to fear deflation

COVID-19 simultaneously disrupted the supply chain and the labor market. Since the unemployment rate had hit record highs, some economists were worried that the supply chain would recover before the labor market. If that had happened, businesses would have been producing goods, but no one would have been able to buy them because they wouldn't have the disposable income to do so.

The Federal Reserve fought the Great Recession primarily with quantitative easing and repurchasing agreements.

Markets have always recovered and hit new highs following crashes

The crash that preceded the Great Depression was the most severe the US has ever experienced. It was 28 times worse than the downturn that followed the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Switzerland's currency is so strong that it could cause deflation

Economic instability in the United States in 2025 strongly benefited Switzerland, where the value of the franc relative to the dollar increased by about 12.7%. In response, the price of imports dramatically decreased, making goods overall much cheaper.

Learn about what causes economic bubbles, including how forces like cheap credit, soaring optimism, and feedback loops push asset prices far beyond fundamentals—until a single shock triggers panic, selling, and a rapid collapse.

The 2008 financial system unraveled in a wave of speculation

Michael Lewis—author of the bestselling "The Big Short"—explains how a wave of speculation (among other factors) drove the 2008 collapse, from lenders issuing risky mortgages to Wall Street turning them into fragile securities. He also highlights the few outsiders who recognized the bubble and bet against it before the crash.

The highest inflation ever recorded in US history was estimated at 30% in 1778, just after the Revolutionary War.

Inflation was a word before deflation was

The word inflation has Latin roots and technically means an influx of air, first appearing in the English language in the 1890s to describe bike tires. Deflation's first known mention in an economic text was in 1919.

The story of the Wall Street Crash of 1929

The 1920s in the US "roared" with rapid economic growth after the conclusion of World War I. But in October 1929, the bubbly stock markets crashed dramatically, plunging the nation into the decadelong Great Depression.

In March 2008, Bear Stearns was the first major bank to collapse in the Great Recession—leading to panic across the entire global financial system.

The Federal Reserve can set interest rates below zero

Interest rates, the cost of borrowing money, are the primary tool the Federal Reserve uses to control inflation. During periods of deflation, setting interest rates below zero penalizes saving, encourages banks to lend more and moves more cash through the economy.

Disinflation, a decrease in the rate of inflation, is different from deflation

Disinflation happens when prices are still going up, just at a slower rate. Prolonged disinflation is also often accompanied by a recession, making it painful for consumers.

Many economists see Black Friday as a litmus test for consumer confidence

Some investors and analysts look at Black Friday’s sales numbers as a way to gauge the overall health of the retail industry—and consumer confidence at large. However, others don’t believe Black Friday results have a particularly significant impact on markets, arguing that the figures only cause short-term gains or losses.

Central banking in the US has had a fraught political history

That history includes its doomed early efforts in the First and Second National Banks, as well as its failure to address the worst financial period in US history, the Great Depression.

The US unemployment rate soared to over 24% during the Great Depression, the highest in recorded history.

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon in which consumers see a broad rise in the prices of goods and services across the economy over time

Sustained periods of inflation are often caused by central bank policies including low interest rates or increased money supply. With more money chasing the same number of goods and services, prices tend to rise and the value of a single dollar drops.

What is quantitative easing?

Quantitative easing was a relatively new method the Federal Reserve used to curb deflation during the Great Recession. In this process, a central bank digitally creates money that is used to purchase assets, usually government bonds. This lowers returns on low-risk bonds, encouraging investors to put their money in high-risk, short-term stocks, and moves money through the system.

The Great Depression was an international depression felt far beyond the US

Many countries suffered through a depression in the 1930s that the First World War, the US stock market crash, and an economic downturn in Germany turned into an international crisis.

BlackRock played an integral role in the Federal Reserve's response to the Great Recession, managing about $30B of hard-to-sell Bear Stearns assets on behalf of the New York Fed.

During COVID-19, the Fed made drastic moves in attempts to shore up the US economy called quantitative easing

The Fed took an aggressive approach to help the US economy during COVID-19 beyond standard monetary levers, including broad purchases of mortgage-backed securities, Treasury securities, and more.

FTX, one of the world's largest crypto exchanges, collapsed in 2022

As crypto markets declined during the post-pandemic slowdown, Sam Bankman-Fried propped up the markets with billions he'd earned leading FTX, one of the largest crypto exchanges. Then, in one of the most rapid financial implosions in modern history, the exchange collapsed as investors rushed to withdraw money.

Japan's 1990s deflation followed the country's fastest growth period

The end of World War II ended Japan's isolation in the global economy, prompting what's now called the "Japanese Economic Miracle." From the 1940s to the 1980s, Japanese policy makers enacted ultra-loose monetary policies that pushed a ton of cash into the market and fueled rapid growth. But these policies ultimately helped create a bubble and sent the country into a deep period of deflation.

The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act—which was passed during the Great Depression with the goal of reviving domestic industry—is among the most famous pieces of economic legislation in US history.

In the 1970s, the US experienced a period of stagflation

It was characterized by high inflation, slow economic growth, and high unemployment. The crisis was triggered by a combination of factors, including loose monetary policy that spurred excess demand and spiraling oil prices caused by an OPEC embargo in 1973.

Get the inside story of the duck hunt that birthed the Federal Reserve

Pseudo-duck hunters, private train cars in Hoboken, and a thrilling work week over Thanksgiving 1910—all and more are featured in the wild story of how a group of fed-up bankers and lawmakers tried to create an enduring central bank for the US. Records of the meeting managed to remain hidden for decades.

The worst US bank runs since 1900

From the Panic of 1907 to the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in 2023, this bank scholar and former Fed official goes into the history of the country's worst bank runs.

FDR changed the date of Thanksgiving, then changed it back

In the waning years of the Great Depression, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt attempted to move Thanksgiving up by a week, giving merchants a longer holiday shopping season. After pushback from lawmakers, he reversed course in 1941, permanently fixing the date of Thanksgiving on the fourth Thursday of November.

The Fed can use quantitative easing to stimulate growth once it has lowered the federal funds rate as far as it can go

This involves purchasing large-scale assets from banks beyond just Treasury bills and bonds. This effectively gives banks much more liquidity, with the hope that they will actively lend it out at cheaper rates and expand the economy. But quantitative easing runs the risk of sparking inflation.

BlackRock sponsored the Federal Reserve's purchasing of corporate debt through exchange-traded funds during the COVID-19 pandemic, while it simultaneously sold some of its own shares on the secondary market—sparking controversy over potentially unfair advantages.

China had an inflation rate of -0.4% in August 2025

As opposed to other G20 countries that are largely struggling with high inflation rates, China is facing deflation. Sluggish growth in the country's once booming real estate market is just one glimpse into the consumer slowdown triggering deflation.

Harry Dexter White outmaneuvered Keynes to make the dollar the center of the new global monetary system

The chief US Treasury economist at the conference, White, advocated for a dollar-centered exchange rate system over Keynes' competing idea of a new global currency, shaping the postwar economic order for decades.

Central bank independence is correlated with lower inflation on average

Executives may seek to influence the central bank to reduce interest rates for political points. Since its creation in the early 20th century, the US' Federal Reserve saw the most interactions from the president during the Nixon and Ford administrations.

Known as the 'Pecora Hearings,' the widely covered trials following the stock market crash of 1929 generated massive public outrage that forced Congress to impose stricter regulations on Wall Street.

The Federal Reserve is the most powerful financial institution in the US

The Fed controls the money supply, determines interest rates, and regulates the banking system. Established in 1913 after a volatile series of financial panics, the central bank has managed to retain its legitimacy despite broad critiques against its obscure and independent decision process.

Ray Dalio considers betting against the US debt load in 1982 among his biggest failures

In the early days of his hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio calculated that the US had accumulated more debt than it was possible to repay. He took short positions in the market that backfired when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and avoided a global economic collapse. Dalio lost everything and even had to borrow $4K from his dad—but often describes this experience as one of the most pivotal moments in his career.

Technological advancements are historically deflationary

Technological innovation can drive down costs and prices for businesses, which can increase real wages for employees. As a result, people have more money to spend and demand increases.

Consumer spending accounts for 70% of US GDP, making Black Friday significant

Lizabeth Cohen, a history professor at Harvard and author of the book “A Consumer's Republic: The Politics Of Mass Consumption In Postwar America,” has argued that the US government has presented consumerism as a way out of economic crisis or decline since around World War II.

Explaining the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank

In March 2023, Silicon Valley Bank—the nation's 16th largest bank at the time—collapsed after a rapid run on its deposits. Among other factors, the bank had placed more than half of its investments into long-term bonds, leaving it without the necessary cash on hand as its clients, largely start ups, panicked and withdrew their money at the same time. This visualization lays out the timeline and impact of the collapse.

'Tulip mania,' the 1630s Dutch craze where rare bulbs were briefly traded like luxury assets, may have been the first financial bubble—and it still shapes markets today.