In the 1970s, the US experienced a period of stagflation

Oil shocks, war, and the 1970s crisis that remade American energy and economics

The oil crises of the 1970s—fueled by Middle East conflict and OPEC's dominance—triggered inflation, price controls, and policy failure. But they also accelerated fracking, alternative energy, and the rise of free-market economics.

The 1973 oil embargo by OPEC inspired advances in alternative energy technology

The shortages imposed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) created a global energy crisis and economic instability after the Arab-Israeli War. This led to investments in green technologies and improvements in automobile fuel efficiency and manufacturing.

OPEC's 1973 embargo sparked the first global energy shock.

1970s U.S. energy crisis sparked waves of green innovation

Faced with the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the U.S. responded with bold innovation—enacting a 55 mph speed limit, pioneering daylight saving time, boosting solar research, expanding nuclear power, and pushing energy-efficient building designs and automotive technologies

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon in which consumers see a broad rise in the prices of goods and services across the economy over time

Sustained periods of inflation are often caused by central bank policies including low interest rates or increased money supply. With more money chasing the same number of goods and services, prices tend to rise and the value of a single dollar drops.

See a timeline that shows how volatile oil prices have been for decades, from OPEC-led embargoes in the 1970s and shale surges in the 2000s to the US flipping to become a net oil exporter in 2020.

US inflation can generally be split into to two periods—before and after the Federal Reserve

A central bank itself does not mean significant inflation will occur, but economists generally point to factors like two world wars and the printing of money to finance the US federal deficit as primary drivers of price increases.

The Great Depression is one of history's most notable periods of deflation

The stock market crash of 1929 helped trigger a period of deflation in the United States by creating a drastic decrease in the total money supply. Because of the United States' central role in the world economy, virtually every single country was impacted by the recession.

Iran's 1979 revolution sparked a second oil shock—and reconfigured global energy markets.

The highest inflation ever recorded in US history was estimated at 30% in 1778, just after the Revolutionary War.

The US unemployment rate soared to over 24% during the Great Depression, the highest in recorded history.

Unless prices of fossil fuels rise significantly, their production is expected to slow

US oil and natural gas production skyrocketed from 2000 to 2020, largely due to advances in fracking. However, weak global energy prices have prevented this boom from translating into increased profits for fossil fuel companies.

The story of the Wall Street Crash of 1929

The 1920s in the US "roared" with rapid economic growth after the conclusion of World War I. But in October 1929, the bubbly stock markets crashed dramatically, plunging the nation into the decadelong Great Depression.

Beyond oil, the Iran war has pushed up costs on fertilizer, prescriptions, and mortgages.

COVID-19's shock to employment rates sparked some economists to fear deflation

COVID-19 simultaneously disrupted the supply chain and the labor market. Since the unemployment rate had hit record highs, some economists were worried that the supply chain would recover before the labor market. If that had happened, businesses would have been producing goods, but no one would have been able to buy them because they wouldn't have the disposable income to do so.

In 1979, Iranian students seized the US Embassy in Tehran, holding 52 Americans hostage for 444 days

Outraged by the US decision to allow the exiled Shah to enter the United States for medical treatment, student protesters stormed the embassy in November 1979. The crisis paralyzed the Carter presidency and ended with a negotiated release on the day of Ronald Reagan's inauguration.

The 1967 war was the first use of oil as a geopolitical weapon

Following the June 1967 Arab–Israeli war, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Libya, and Algeria embargoed oil shipments to the US, UK, and West Germany. While the move did not have a large impact, it reshaped global oil flows, and foreshadowed OAPEC's later actions.

The world's most famous case of deflation happened after Black Thursday

While the details are not fully agreed upon, many economists point to the Federal Reserve's tightening of the money supply as a prime culprit, leading to a significant deflationary spiral.

Amid the aftermath of Watergate, Gerald Ford declared that the state of the union was 'not good'

In his first State of the Union in January 1975, President Ford departed from the usual optimism, bluntly acknowledging recession, inflation, and public distrust as the country worked to recover from Nixon's resignation and the Watergate scandal.

Japan's 1990s deflation followed the country's fastest growth period

The end of World War II ended Japan's isolation in the global economy, prompting what's now called the "Japanese Economic Miracle." From the 1940s to the 1980s, Japanese policy makers enacted ultra-loose monetary policies that pushed a ton of cash into the market and fueled rapid growth. But these policies ultimately helped create a bubble and sent the country into a deep period of deflation.

Venezuela is experiencing hyperinflation

Consumer prices in the country have risen at a fairly quick rate since 1983, but a series of policy miscalculations, falling oil prices, and other factors have sparked extreme levels of inflation since 2017, with citizens losing faith in the value of the national currency.

1970s New York was viewed by many as a city in decline

By 1975, the city owed $5B to $6B in short-term debt; over a million manufacturing jobs had left the city since the end of World War II. Meanwhile, the murder rate was more than double than 10 years earlier. Graffiti was seen as illegal vandalism perpetrated by unsupervised teenagers and was viewed by some as emblematic of the larger societal decline.

Economic stagnation and the arms race pushed the USSR toward collapse

By the 1980s, chronic economic stagnation and soaring military costs forced Gorbachev to launch sweeping reforms—perestroika and glasnost—to revive the Soviet system. Instead, openness fueled independence movements across the republics, accelerating the regime’s rapid downfall.

Fast-food prices have increased more over the past 10 years than both full-service restaurants and inflation.

Prices can still feel high even if inflation is slowing

This is partly because a recent spike in inflation raised prices permanently, so even though the pace of price growth has slowed, prices have still gone up for good.

Pan Am was once the largest international airline in the US—but it shut down in 1991 after a series of financial issues, beginning with increased operating costs and reduced demand driven by the oil crisis in the 1970s.

The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act—which was passed during the Great Depression with the goal of reviving domestic industry—is among the most famous pieces of economic legislation in US history.

Food stamps were revived as a JFK pilot as one of his first actions upon taking office in 1961, but the program had its largest expansion under President Richard Nixon in the late 1960s and early 1970s.

Fracking has led to an increased global oil supply, contributing to lower oil prices

Fracking technology has significantly increased how much crude oil the US produces. As more countries adopt fracking technology, there could be an increased downward pressure on prices—although fracking has been widely criticized for its negative environmental impacts.

Interest rates have historically been an indicator of the US economy's overall health.

Markets have always recovered and hit new highs following crashes

The crash that preceded the Great Depression was the most severe the US has ever experienced. It was 28 times worse than the downturn that followed the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Explore a timeline of US dependence on crude oil from 1850 to 2023

Oil dependence began with the rise of oil as a commodity, followed by an era of geopolitical competition for the resource after World War II. The domestic fracking boom, which started around 2006, was driven by a desire to reduce the nation's dependence on international adversaries for energy.

Nixon's 1971 decision to untether the dollar from gold ended the Bretton Woods exchange rate system

The Bretton Woods system initially pegged all major currencies to the US dollar, which could be exchanged for gold at a fixed rate of $35 per ounce. Growing deficits and decreasing gold reserves prompted Nixon to end that guarantee in 1971, marking the end of the fixed exchange rate era.

In 2023, the US money supply fell at its fastest rate since the 1930s

The money supply tracks how much cash, as well as electronic funds like savings accounts, is circulating through the economy. And a downward turn can be a bad sign.

In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed began a program of quantitative easing

This program injected trillions of dollars of new money into financial markets to stimulate the economy. The move catalyzed an 11-year bull run and was repeated during the pandemic. Experts argue such power could worsen wealth inequality and contribute to bubbles in housing and finance.

The US government has shut down 22 times since 1976

This resource breaks down every federal shutdown since 1976, showing how long each lasted and the budget disputes that caused them—revealing how routine funding failures have become in modern US politics.

The recorded history of crude oil use dates back about 5,000 years, with the Babylonians using it to waterproof their boats and as mortar in the construction of structures.

Central bank independence is correlated with lower inflation on average

Executives may seek to influence the central bank to reduce interest rates for political points. Since its creation in the early 20th century, the US' Federal Reserve saw the most interactions from the president during the Nixon and Ford administrations.

'Good deflation' happens when prices naturally track with supply, meaning prices change gradually

This tends to make products and services more affordable and normalizes the standard of living. Bad deflation usually happens when there are sudden changes to either supply or demand. Near-zero [interest rates helped create the real estate bubble that sparked the Great Recession when it crashed](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMo9mD8j7IA&t=91s) Because deflation distorts the value of money, deflation is particularly harmful for borrowers. Low interest rates made it easy for businesses and everyday people to take on enormous debt, which exacerbated the effects of the recession.

Economists define deflation as a sustained decline in prices across an economy

Deflationary periods are characterized by broad, significant price declines. The Federal Reserve can monitor deflation by tracking prices through price indexes, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which characterizes the average costs for consumers each month.

Central banking in the US has had a fraught political history

That history includes its doomed early efforts in the First and Second National Banks, as well as its failure to address the worst financial period in US history, the Great Depression.

Roughly $5T of stimulus money flooded the economy during the pandemic

Recessions can last anywhere from months to years. To encourage economic growth, governments use policy levers such as lowering interest rates or introducing a stimulus. Economists credit massive stimulus funds for helping the economy quickly recover from a recession during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Communism grew in appeal during the Great Depression

With at least a quarter of the country out of work, some Americans disenchanted with capitalism began looking at alternatives. Watch this five-minute video to learn about communism's growing allure during the Great Depression.

Lessons from the 1973 energy crisis still echo in today’s geopolitical battles over oil

The video from the Economist highlights how energy supply disruptions can be weaponized—just as in 1973, today’s gas cutoffs (Russia throttling supplies to Europe after their invasion of Ukraine) reveal the ongoing importance of strategic energy resilience.

After World War I, consumerism began to usurp frugality as a foundational value in American life and culture.

President Trump's 2025 Tariffs added less inflationary pressure to the economy than expected in their first year

A year after the so-called "Liberation Day" in April 2025, tariffs have had a milder effect on inflation than feared—core goods prices have added only about 0.2% to the headline Consumer Price Index—but persistent policy uncertainty has rattled small business owners, who say the constant back-and-forth makes long-term planning difficult.

College tuition has climbed 600% in 40 years

The cost of attending college has outpaced inflation in the US. Tuition has climbed more than 600% in the past 40 years; more than three times the inflation rate. Many students have racked up student loans to cover rising college costs, while others have chosen not to attend college altogether.

Oil markets are seeing higher costs and lower prices amid tech breakthroughs

Experts say oil demand has not yet reached its peak. Recent technological breakthroughs in the oil industry include advances in drilling and extraction, as well as subsurface technologies.

Why have gas prices surged nearly 27% since the Iran war began?

Oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz makes up only about 7% of US crude imports. However, crude oil prices account for 51% of the cost of a gallon of gas in the US. US refiners pay the Brent crude futures price, even for domestic drilling.

Falling demand and lower costs of production cause deflation

"Falling demand" refers to anything that changes someone's willingness to spend money on goods and services. Global recessions, fears of a worldwide recession, and a fall in the money supply are all factors that could lead to falling demand. Likewise, lower production costs allow companies to increase production, which can lead to a surplus in supply.