Falling demand and lower costs of production cause deflation

'Good deflation' happens when prices naturally track with supply, meaning prices change gradually

This tends to make products and services more affordable and normalizes the standard of living. Bad deflation usually happens when there are sudden changes to either supply or demand. Near-zero [interest rates helped create the real estate bubble that sparked the Great Recession when it crashed](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMo9mD8j7IA&t=91s) Because deflation distorts the value of money, deflation is particularly harmful for borrowers. Low interest rates made it easy for businesses and everyday people to take on enormous debt, which exacerbated the effects of the recession.

Economists define deflation as a sustained decline in prices across an economy

Deflationary periods are characterized by broad, significant price declines. The Federal Reserve can monitor deflation by tracking prices through price indexes, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which characterizes the average costs for consumers each month.

Disinflation, a decrease in the rate of inflation, is different from deflation

Disinflation happens when prices are still going up, just at a slower rate. Prolonged disinflation is also often accompanied by a recession, making it painful for consumers.

The psychological aspect of deflation makes it difficult for policymakers to stabilize the economy

That psychological aspect is referred to as "the deflationary spiral." When prices start decreasing, people tend to hold on to their money to pay the lowest prices. But as prices start stabilizing, people resist increasing prices. (Some users may experience a paywall.)

The Great Depression is one of history's most notable periods of deflation

The stock market crash of 1929 helped trigger a period of deflation in the United States by creating a drastic decrease in the total money supply. Because of the United States' central role in the world economy, virtually every single country was impacted by the recession.

The world's most famous case of deflation happened after Black Thursday

While the details are not fully agreed upon, many economists point to the Federal Reserve's tightening of the money supply as a prime culprit, leading to a significant deflationary spiral.

COVID-19's shock to employment rates sparked some economists to fear deflation

COVID-19 simultaneously disrupted the supply chain and the labor market. Since the unemployment rate had hit record highs, some economists were worried that the supply chain would recover before the labor market. If that had happened, businesses would have been producing goods, but no one would have been able to buy them because they wouldn't have the disposable income to do so.

Technological advancements are historically deflationary

Technological innovation can drive down costs and prices for businesses, which can increase real wages for employees. As a result, people have more money to spend and demand increases.

China had an inflation rate of -0.4% in August 2025

As opposed to other G20 countries that are largely struggling with high inflation rates, China is facing deflation. Sluggish growth in the country's once booming real estate market is just one glimpse into the consumer slowdown triggering deflation.

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon in which consumers see a broad rise in the prices of goods and services across the economy over time

Sustained periods of inflation are often caused by central bank policies including low interest rates or increased money supply. With more money chasing the same number of goods and services, prices tend to rise and the value of a single dollar drops.

Inflation was a word before deflation was

The word inflation has Latin roots and technically means an influx of air, first appearing in the English language in the 1890s to describe bike tires. Deflation's first known mention in an economic text was in 1919.

Why there's a snack recession

Inflation and economic uncertainty have driven many Americans to make cuts to their snack budgets, according to reports from major food manufacturers like General Mills, JM Smucker, and Campbell's. Major retailers have also observed lower-income consumers cutting back on nonessentials due to the macroeconomic environment.

In 2023, the US money supply fell at its fastest rate since the 1930s

The money supply tracks how much cash, as well as electronic funds like savings accounts, is circulating through the economy. And a downward turn can be a bad sign.

Read former Fed chair Ben Bernanke's 2002 speech about preventing deflation

Very low inflation rates in the early 2000s in the United States and a worsening recession in Japan sparked some domestic concern over the threat of deflation. While Bernanke wasn't Chair at the time of the speech, he emphasized the Fed's role in preventing deflation.

Artificial intelligence might make companies too efficient—which could trigger deflation

AI innovation will likely decrease costs for companies and lead to a large increase in supply. That dramatic increase could conceivably bring prices down but keep supply high. However, AI's real impact will likely be complicated by its impact on human labor and the cost of new technology.

Fast-food prices have increased more over the past 10 years than both full-service restaurants and inflation.

What something costs is reflective of a balance in the market determined by the amount of demand relative to the supply of goods and services

Because economies are complex systems, a wide variety of issues influence this balance—including some things generally considered to be positive, like rising wages.

One signal that a recession has become a depression? When GDP declines more than 10%

There’s no single definition for recessions or depressions, but both are marked by sustained periods of declining economic activity. Depressions are more severe than recessions.

Fracking has led to an increased global oil supply, contributing to lower oil prices

Fracking technology has significantly increased how much crude oil the US produces. As more countries adopt fracking technology, there could be an increased downward pressure on prices—although fracking has been widely criticized for its negative environmental impacts.

Switzerland's currency is so strong that it could cause deflation

Economic instability in the United States in 2025 strongly benefited Switzerland, where the value of the franc relative to the dollar increased by about 12.7%. In response, the price of imports dramatically decreased, making goods overall much cheaper.

When consumers think an economic downturn is looming, the 'lipstick index' economic theory argues that sales of more affordable luxury items (such as lipstick) go up.

The Federal Reserve can set interest rates below zero

Interest rates, the cost of borrowing money, are the primary tool the Federal Reserve uses to control inflation. During periods of deflation, setting interest rates below zero penalizes saving, encourages banks to lend more and moves more cash through the economy.

Japan's 1990s deflation followed the country's fastest growth period

The end of World War II ended Japan's isolation in the global economy, prompting what's now called the "Japanese Economic Miracle." From the 1940s to the 1980s, Japanese policy makers enacted ultra-loose monetary policies that pushed a ton of cash into the market and fueled rapid growth. But these policies ultimately helped create a bubble and sent the country into a deep period of deflation.

US inflation can generally be split into to two periods—before and after the Federal Reserve

A central bank itself does not mean significant inflation will occur, but economists generally point to factors like two world wars and the printing of money to finance the US federal deficit as primary drivers of price increases.

Learn about what causes economic bubbles, including how forces like cheap credit, soaring optimism, and feedback loops push asset prices far beyond fundamentals—until a single shock triggers panic, selling, and a rapid collapse.

A recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP, but in practice, these economic phenomena are more complex.

Some argue that the rising US national debt has become more important in recent months.

Unless prices of fossil fuels rise significantly, their production is expected to slow

US oil and natural gas production skyrocketed from 2000 to 2020, largely due to advances in fracking. However, weak global energy prices have prevented this boom from translating into increased profits for fossil fuel companies.

There's no single definition of an economic recession, though recessions are commonly identified by two consecutive quarters of shrinking gross domestic product.

'Loveflation' is making dating more expensive and less frequent

A survey found that more than half of Americans are going on fewer dates due to rising costs, with 27% stopping altogether. Gen Z and millennials are the hardest hit, with 62% reporting changes in their dating habits due to inflation.

The clearest sign of a recession is a steady increase in job losses and high unemployment.

Recessions are considered to be inevitable by modern economic standards

Recessions are caused by imbalances in the market and are guaranteed to happen in capitalist systems, but predicting them is a complex task.

In the 1970s, the US experienced a period of stagflation

It was characterized by high inflation, slow economic growth, and high unemployment. The crisis was triggered by a combination of factors, including loose monetary policy that spurred excess demand and spiraling oil prices caused by an OPEC embargo in 1973.

Prices can still feel high even if inflation is slowing

This is partly because a recent spike in inflation raised prices permanently, so even though the pace of price growth has slowed, prices have still gone up for good.

What is quantitative easing?

Quantitative easing was a relatively new method the Federal Reserve used to curb deflation during the Great Recession. In this process, a central bank digitally creates money that is used to purchase assets, usually government bonds. This lowers returns on low-risk bonds, encouraging investors to put their money in high-risk, short-term stocks, and moves money through the system.

Experts recommend preparing your finances accordingly if you're expecting to be laid off soon, taking actions such as looking into the cost of replacing employer-sponsored benefits like healthcare.

Understanding the global crash in fertility rates

This article breaks down the global crash in fertility rates. According to researchers, a global crash in children being born will have a “jaw-dropping” impact on societies. Women are choosing to have fewer children as a result of more women in...

The Federal Reserve fought the Great Recession primarily with quantitative easing and repurchasing agreements.

Why private credit has faced challenges in recent years

The factors that some experts say are driving what could be private credit's most challenging era since the 2008 financial crisis include global economic uncertainty around trade and tariffs, investor fears about the amount of money being spent on artificial intelligence, and more.

A 'debt trap' refers to the need for loans or credit to cover the expenses incurred from other debt

Debt traps can be caused by unforeseen expenses or inadequate savings and can be a brutal cycle to break. At the end of 2025, total household debt in the US reached $18.8T, according to data from the Federal Reserve of New York.

Inflation explained in under 3 minutes

Keep seeing inflation in the news, but don't have a great grasp on what it means or how it works? This overview from 1440 breaks down how economists think about inflation, what it means for the average consumer, and how governments attempt to keep rising prices in check through various policies.

Marriage rates are declining, especially in the richest countries

89% of the world’s population now live in countries with falling rates. Increasing costs of living, the financial burden of starting a family, and the rise of secularism are some of the key factors reducing marriage rates among the less affluent.

The Fed can use quantitative easing to stimulate growth once it has lowered the federal funds rate as far as it can go

This involves purchasing large-scale assets from banks beyond just Treasury bills and bonds. This effectively gives banks much more liquidity, with the hope that they will actively lend it out at cheaper rates and expand the economy. But quantitative easing runs the risk of sparking inflation.

Roughly $5T of stimulus money flooded the economy during the pandemic

Recessions can last anywhere from months to years. To encourage economic growth, governments use policy levers such as lowering interest rates or introducing a stimulus. Economists credit massive stimulus funds for helping the economy quickly recover from a recession during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Interest rates have historically been an indicator of the US economy's overall health.

North American department store retail groups report sales declined from 2018 to 2023

That's according to a recent report from Bain & Company that dives into consumer sentiment around department store shopping and explores a potential reset for the industry.

For everyday Americans, a relatively high national debt can lead to higher interest rates on financial products such as mortgages.

Dollar stores often place staple items at the back of the store so customers encounter other less-necessary items on their way there, leading to impulse buys.

Raising interest rates can help control inflation

While controlling a complex and dynamic economy is difficult, interest rates—more specifically, the rate at which banks lend each other money overnight—are a powerful tool. Generally, raising the rate makes purchases more expensive and cools an overheated economy.

The national debt is growing at a faster rate than the economy.