The cone of uncertainty predicts where a hurricane's center can potentially travel

What is the cone of uncertainty?

In hurricane forecasting, the cone of uncertainty results from connecting a set of circles representing where a hurricane is expected to be at 12-hour intervals. The size of each circle is two-thirds of the historical forecast error over the previous five years.

What does the hurricane forecast cone really tell us?

Ever feel like hurricane forecasts change a lot? Hurricane forecast tracks might not mean what you think they do. Concentric circles are actually used to help form the forecast. Chief Meteorologist Bobby Deskins explains how you should really be reading these cones.

The way hurricanes are categorized may mislead the public to their dangers

The Saffir-Simpson scale categorizes hurricanes based on wind speed, but tropical cyclones' main dangers are storm surges and heavy rainfall. To better communicate risks to the public, a new system that incorporates hurricane size, water content, and other complexities should be developed.

All hurricanes have a central eye, where no extreme weather occurs, surrounded by intense winds and thunderstorms.

The risk of tornadoes and storm surges is greatest on the 'dirty side' of a hurricane

Winds in the right-front quadrant of the storm are amplified by the hurricane's motion and its rotation, which both move air in the same direction. Upon making landfall, these winds pull water from the Gulf and Atlantic onto land, creating storm surges. Tornadoes can also be generated from large differences in wind speed and direction at various heights.

Hurricanes, which rely on air consistently spinning in the same direction, cannot cross the equator because air curves in opposite directions north and south of it.

Check out hurricane history where you live

The NOAA's historical hurricane tracker lets you explore over 150 years of data to see where hurricanes traveled and made landfall. The tool lets you search by location, name, or year; create maps and tables; and read NOAA storm reports.

A list of common questions and answers about hurricanes from NOAA

This FAQ answers many questions hurricane researchers at NOAA have received, sorted by category. The answers provide insights into hurricane classification and naming, forecasting their movement and growth, and tips for preparing ahead of landfall.

Hurricanes spin due to differences in air and ground speed as they move across Earth

The movement of an object across latitudes causes it to take a curved trajectory because its speed no longer matches that of the ground beneath it. This phenomenon, called the Coriolis effect, explains why hurricanes spin counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere.

Storm surges, not winds, are the leading cause of hurricane-related fatalities

A storm surge is an abnormal rise in water levels generated by a storm that exceeds predicted tides. It is particularly dangerous in coastal regions, where it can generate extreme flooding well before the hurricane makes landfall.

Tropical cyclones consist of three main parts: the eye, the eyewall, and rainbands

The eye is a calm, clear central area surrounded by an eyewall of intense thunderstorms. Rainbands are spiral bands of clouds and thunderstorms extending from the eyewall.

Small elevation differences drastically protect homes in hurricanes

The construction of seaside homes has long involved building residences on elevated stilts, but this feature adds costs—and some elevated homes still fail. Explore the engineering behind the ideal height of a hurricane-proof building.

Hurricanes are classified according to their maximum sustained wind speed

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a rating system that organizes hurricanes into one of five categories. Categories three and higher are classified as major hurricanes, but all categories can produce deadly storm surges and rain-induced floods.

How do hurricanes form?

Tropical cyclones, also called hurricanes and typhoons, cause catastrophic damage when they strike land. This four-minute video explores the life cycle of cyclones—how atmospheric conditions, ocean temperatures, and the Earth's rotation combine to create them, and how they are driven by winds and eventually weaken after moving over land.

Hurricanes may kill 300 times more people than officially reported

A recent study suggests that, since 1930, more than 3.5 million people have died due to hurricanes. This incorporates the long-term effects of storms on people's health and economic well-being, contributing to thousands of premature deaths each year.

Hurricanes can grow by replacing their eyewall

A second outer eyewall can form around the primary eyewall surrounding a hurricane's eye. During an eyewall replacement cycle, the outer wall can weaken, collapse, and replace the inner wall, temporarily weakening the storm before it strengthens and grows.

Dust from the Sahel and Saharan regions makes northwest Africa a hurricane nursery

NASA’s Convective Processes Experiment—Cabo Verde studied the early stages of hurricane formation, identifying how dust interacts with clouds over the ocean to produce the rainy disturbances that become tropical cyclones.

Available data suggest that while hurricane frequency has not increased over the past century, average hurricane intensity has, a trend scientists attribute to rising air and ocean temperatures.

Why aren’t there hurricanes in Europe?

Despite their proximity to the Atlantic Ocean, the effects of the subtropical jet stream make tropical storms and hurricanes unlikely to reach Europe at full strength. Their remnants, however, can combine with other weather systems to create powerful storms.

Fast-changing conditions during their formation make tornado forecasting difficult

The final steps of tornadogenesis—the process of forming a tornado—depend on near-surface details, such as local geography, which are difficult for radar to observe and affect how funnel clouds make contact with the ground. Inconsistencies in storm behavior have limited the amount of advance warning people receive before tornadoes touch down.

The NOAA has a specialized team of researchers that fly directly into hurricanes

The reconnaissance missions gather data for computer models to forecast hurricanes and improve disaster preparedness. Each flight can last eight to ten hours and uses a specialized Air Force fleet.

Tropical cyclone formation require warm water and limited vertical wind shear

Ocean temperatures above 27 degrees Celsius fuel rising, moist air, which releases energy through heat as water vapor condenses into clouds. Significant changes in wind speed with height can spread out these upflows, preventing the eventual formation of a central column known as the eye.

How does climate change impact hurricanes?

Statistical relationships between sea surface temperature and hurricanes, analysis of century-scale Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane records, analysis of other observed Atlantic hurricane metrics, and more.

See the lists of the worst hurricanes in the US through 2024

Several metrics, including wind speed, pressure, damage costs, and casualties, may be used to define the most devastating hurricanes. This page provides the top 10 hurricanes across each of these sorting methods.

As of 2025, the world's largest tropical cyclone spanned half the continental US

Typhoon Tip traveled across the western Pacific Ocean in 1979, achieving winds of 300 kilometers per hour. Though it weakened significantly before making landfall in Japan, its rainfall produced over 600 mudslides and killed 42 people.

Tropical cyclones are called hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones around the world

Tropical cyclones are named differently based on their region of origin due to historical traditions and cultural importance. These storms are called hurricanes in the Atlantic and northeast Pacific oceans, cyclones in the southwest Pacific and Indian oceans, and typhoons in the northwest Pacific Ocean.

Unlike hurricanes, tornadoes are not ranked based on measured wind speed

Technological limitations prevent direct measurements of wind speeds where tornadoes make contact with the ground. Instead, the Enhanced Fujita scale assigns a rating with a range of speeds based on how much damage a tornado caused to various types of structures. These types are more extensive than the original Fujita scale.

Watch how scientists learn about hurricanes by flying into them

A specialized fleet of Air Force planes is built to fly into hurricanes and gather critical data from inside the storm. Beyond radar and microwave sensors, the planes are equipped with dropsondes—small instruments dropped into storms to measure pressure, temperature, and wind.

Tornado myths include suggestions to hide beneath a bridge or to open windows

Winds can accelerate due to a tunneling effect as they pass under a structure, making seeking shelter from a tornado in a mobile home or recreational vehicle highly discouraged. Significant tornado damage results from debris being picked up and hurled by strong winds, making it unsafe to be near windows that may shatter.

The total cost of weather and climate disasters from 1980 to 2024 is almost $3T

The NOAA’s Office of Coastal Management tracks the cost of damage, deaths, and other key statistics related to hurricanes and weather disasters. In 2024, there were 27 billion-dollar disasters, each averaging $1.2B more in damage than the prior five-year average.

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

Explore hindcasting on climate models published since 1972

Hindcasting tests model forecasts against observational data to determine their accuracy. In this interactive, you can learn about the differences between eight climate models and evaluate them against available climate data.

Some maps may incorrectly identify the boundaries of a solar eclipse's totality because they assume the Earth is a smooth surface.

Hurricane conditions are created in a University of Miami wind-wave tank

The SUrge-STructure-Atmosphere INteraction Wind Wave Laboratory contains a 38,000-gallon wave pool connected to a wind tunnel that can generate air currents of up to 155 mph. SUSTAIN allows scientists to study how the atmosphere interacts with the ocean in extreme weather.

Rapid intensification is the increase in a hurricane's sustained wind speed by at least 35 miles per hour within 24 hours, which can strengthen it by up to two categories.

Common mistakes we make about the world map

Maps have long loosely approximated what the world actually looks like. Here's a few common errors that persist due to outdated conceptions of the world.

Due to a local microclimate, a thunderstorm nicknamed Hector the Convector appears almost every day from September to March at around 3 pm off the northern coast of Australia.

By absorbing 90% of the thermal energy trapped by greenhouse gases, oceans are providing increasingly more energy to power the rapid strengthening of hurricanes.

How accurate are climate models?

RealClimate: A new paper from Hausfather and colleagues with the most comprehensive assessment of climate model projections since the 1970s. Bottom line? Once you correct for small errors in the projected forcings, they did remarkably well.

Juno has revealed Jupiter’s polar cyclones, complex atmosphere, and diffuse core

The continent-sized cyclones at Jupiter’s poles generate strong winds and ammonia-laden storms. The spacecraft has also collected data on Jupiter’s unique magnetic field, which resembles a blend of Earth’s and Uranus/Neptune's.

Explore and visualize AI-driven riverine and flash-flood forecasts across more than 150 countries to anticipate these natural disasters up to seven days in advance.

Climate models use complex equations and supercomputers to predict future climate

The equations apply the laws of thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiative transfer to a 3D grid along Earth's surface. After solving them for each cell in the grid over a time interval, the results carry over to neighboring cells, and the process repeats into the future.

The National Weather Service communicates tornado risks on a three-tier system

During a tornado watch, atmospheric conditions favor the development of a tornado, and residents in an area should be prepared to seek refuge. A tornado warning is issued if a tornado has been detected, while a tornado emergency indicates a violent tornado has touched down in the area, with severe threats to human life and property expected.

Visualizing the year in US tornadoes, 2024

Between January and November 2024, over 1,700 tornadoes were documented to have touched down in the US, a relatively high number (and similar to the numbers in 2004, 2008, and 2011). This map shows their location across the country to help capture the number.

Bomb cyclones can produce heavy rain, blizzard conditions, and intense winds

Known as "bombogenesis" in meteorology, these systems get their colloquial name from their rapid intensification over a 24-hour period—a phenomenon seen in some tropical cyclones. They occur most commonly along the coasts of the Northeast and Northwest US when there is a severe temperature difference between colliding air masses.

Atmospheric processes amplify the strength of storms by coalescing clouds

Research has shown that turbulent mixing of air at the edges of clouds and other small-scale thermal activity beneath them help clouds group together, intensifying short bursts of rainfall, especially in tropical regions. Simulations reveal this produces more powerful storms than predicted by older models, though they may occur less frequently.

In Doppler radar imaging, a 'hook echo' helps identify a tornado-producing thunderstorm

Typically found in the right-rear part of a storm relative to its motion, the "hook" is the hallmark of a mesocyclone—a large, rotating updraft of air—within supercells, the most powerful thunderstorms. While tornadoes are known to develop within mesocyclones, they can also be detected by storm spotters trained to recognize tornado conditions in their communities.

The geoid depicts what Earth would look like if not for tides and currents, given the planet's rotation and uneven gravitational field.

Most tornadoes occur during the afternoon and evening hours

While there is no official national tornado season as with Atlantic hurricanes, many tornadoes form in the presence of thunderstorms, which are fueled by solar heating and the energy released by the condensation of water vapor. The airflow instabilities created from this energy build throughout the day until the sun sets.

Explore the effects of tornadoes of different scales

In this simulation, users can adjust the tornado's diameter and rotation speed to see its impact as it passes through a series of trees and a one-story home.