What is the cone of uncertainty?

The cone of uncertainty predicts where a hurricane's center can potentially travel

A common misconception is that regions beyond the cone are safe, but the spread does not depict the full reach of a cyclone's wind, rain, or storm surges. The cone is not built from real-time storm data but is an average forecast error from the past five years.

What does the hurricane forecast cone really tell us?

Ever feel like hurricane forecasts change a lot? Hurricane forecast tracks might not mean what you think they do. Concentric circles are actually used to help form the forecast. Chief Meteorologist Bobby Deskins explains how you should really be reading these cones.

All hurricanes have a central eye, where no extreme weather occurs, surrounded by intense winds and thunderstorms.

A list of common questions and answers about hurricanes from NOAA

This FAQ answers many questions hurricane researchers at NOAA have received, sorted by category. The answers provide insights into hurricane classification and naming, forecasting their movement and growth, and tips for preparing ahead of landfall.

Check out hurricane history where you live

The NOAA's historical hurricane tracker lets you explore over 150 years of data to see where hurricanes traveled and made landfall. The tool lets you search by location, name, or year; create maps and tables; and read NOAA storm reports.

The way hurricanes are categorized may mislead the public to their dangers

The Saffir-Simpson scale categorizes hurricanes based on wind speed, but tropical cyclones' main dangers are storm surges and heavy rainfall. To better communicate risks to the public, a new system that incorporates hurricane size, water content, and other complexities should be developed.

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

Explore hindcasting on climate models published since 1972

Hindcasting tests model forecasts against observational data to determine their accuracy. In this interactive, you can learn about the differences between eight climate models and evaluate them against available climate data.

Hurricanes can grow by replacing their eyewall

A second outer eyewall can form around the primary eyewall surrounding a hurricane's eye. During an eyewall replacement cycle, the outer wall can weaken, collapse, and replace the inner wall, temporarily weakening the storm before it strengthens and grows.

The NOAA has a specialized team of researchers that fly directly into hurricanes

The reconnaissance missions gather data for computer models to forecast hurricanes and improve disaster preparedness. Each flight can last eight to ten hours and uses a specialized Air Force fleet.

How does climate change impact hurricanes?

Statistical relationships between sea surface temperature and hurricanes, analysis of century-scale Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane records, analysis of other observed Atlantic hurricane metrics, and more.

Fast-changing conditions during their formation make tornado forecasting difficult

The final steps of tornadogenesis—the process of forming a tornado—depend on near-surface details, such as local geography, which are difficult for radar to observe and affect how funnel clouds make contact with the ground. Inconsistencies in storm behavior have limited the amount of advance warning people receive before tornadoes touch down.

Hurricanes are classified according to their maximum sustained wind speed

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a rating system that organizes hurricanes into one of five categories. Categories three and higher are classified as major hurricanes, but all categories can produce deadly storm surges and rain-induced floods.

Hurricanes spin due to differences in air and ground speed as they move across Earth

The movement of an object across latitudes causes it to take a curved trajectory because its speed no longer matches that of the ground beneath it. This phenomenon, called the Coriolis effect, explains why hurricanes spin counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere.

Hurricanes, which rely on air consistently spinning in the same direction, cannot cross the equator because air curves in opposite directions north and south of it.

How do hurricanes form?

Tropical cyclones, also called hurricanes and typhoons, cause catastrophic damage when they strike land. This four-minute video explores the life cycle of cyclones—how atmospheric conditions, ocean temperatures, and the Earth's rotation combine to create them, and how they are driven by winds and eventually weaken after moving over land.

Tropical cyclones consist of three main parts: the eye, the eyewall, and rainbands

The eye is a calm, clear central area surrounded by an eyewall of intense thunderstorms. Rainbands are spiral bands of clouds and thunderstorms extending from the eyewall.

Within quantum mechanics, the Heisenberg uncertainty principle limits how precisely one can simultaneously know the values of pairs of complementary properties for an object, such as position and momentum.

Small elevation differences drastically protect homes in hurricanes

The construction of seaside homes has long involved building residences on elevated stilts, but this feature adds costs—and some elevated homes still fail. Explore the engineering behind the ideal height of a hurricane-proof building.

Visualize the path of every solar eclipse from 1900 to 2099 and see what each looks like when observed from different locations on Earth.

Tropical cyclone formation require warm water and limited vertical wind shear

Ocean temperatures above 27 degrees Celsius fuel rising, moist air, which releases energy through heat as water vapor condenses into clouds. Significant changes in wind speed with height can spread out these upflows, preventing the eventual formation of a central column known as the eye.

Dust from the Sahel and Saharan regions makes northwest Africa a hurricane nursery

NASA’s Convective Processes Experiment—Cabo Verde studied the early stages of hurricane formation, identifying how dust interacts with clouds over the ocean to produce the rainy disturbances that become tropical cyclones.

See the lists of the worst hurricanes in the US through 2024

Several metrics, including wind speed, pressure, damage costs, and casualties, may be used to define the most devastating hurricanes. This page provides the top 10 hurricanes across each of these sorting methods.

Climate models use complex equations and supercomputers to predict future climate

The equations apply the laws of thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiative transfer to a 3D grid along Earth's surface. After solving them for each cell in the grid over a time interval, the results carry over to neighboring cells, and the process repeats into the future.

The total cost of weather and climate disasters from 1980 to 2024 is almost $3T

The NOAA’s Office of Coastal Management tracks the cost of damage, deaths, and other key statistics related to hurricanes and weather disasters. In 2024, there were 27 billion-dollar disasters, each averaging $1.2B more in damage than the prior five-year average.

Unlike hurricanes, tornadoes are not ranked based on measured wind speed

Technological limitations prevent direct measurements of wind speeds where tornadoes make contact with the ground. Instead, the Enhanced Fujita scale assigns a rating with a range of speeds based on how much damage a tornado caused to various types of structures. These types are more extensive than the original Fujita scale.

In Doppler radar imaging, a 'hook echo' helps identify a tornado-producing thunderstorm

Typically found in the right-rear part of a storm relative to its motion, the "hook" is the hallmark of a mesocyclone—a large, rotating updraft of air—within supercells, the most powerful thunderstorms. While tornadoes are known to develop within mesocyclones, they can also be detected by storm spotters trained to recognize tornado conditions in their communities.

The risk of tornadoes and storm surges is greatest on the 'dirty side' of a hurricane

Winds in the right-front quadrant of the storm are amplified by the hurricane's motion and its rotation, which both move air in the same direction. Upon making landfall, these winds pull water from the Gulf and Atlantic onto land, creating storm surges. Tornadoes can also be generated from large differences in wind speed and direction at various heights.

Watch how scientists learn about hurricanes by flying into them

A specialized fleet of Air Force planes is built to fly into hurricanes and gather critical data from inside the storm. Beyond radar and microwave sensors, the planes are equipped with dropsondes—small instruments dropped into storms to measure pressure, temperature, and wind.

Eruption forecasting relies on probabilistic methods resembling weather forecasting

While some volcanoes erupt with predictable signs, such as surface deformation from the build-up of underground magma pressure, others release magma at inconsistent rates. Extensive monitoring is needed to identify less clear patterns and indicators of future eruptions.

Hurricanes may kill 300 times more people than officially reported

A recent study suggests that, since 1930, more than 3.5 million people have died due to hurricanes. This incorporates the long-term effects of storms on people's health and economic well-being, contributing to thousands of premature deaths each year.

Available data suggest that while hurricane frequency has not increased over the past century, average hurricane intensity has, a trend scientists attribute to rising air and ocean temperatures.

Due to a local microclimate, a thunderstorm nicknamed Hector the Convector appears almost every day from September to March at around 3 pm off the northern coast of Australia.

Some maps may incorrectly identify the boundaries of a solar eclipse's totality because they assume the Earth is a smooth surface.

Explore an interactive forecast of the future of the universe, from the return of Halley's Comet to the last light in the cosmos.

Storm surges, not winds, are the leading cause of hurricane-related fatalities

A storm surge is an abnormal rise in water levels generated by a storm that exceeds predicted tides. It is particularly dangerous in coastal regions, where it can generate extreme flooding well before the hurricane makes landfall.

The National Weather Service communicates tornado risks on a three-tier system

During a tornado watch, atmospheric conditions favor the development of a tornado, and residents in an area should be prepared to seek refuge. A tornado warning is issued if a tornado has been detected, while a tornado emergency indicates a violent tornado has touched down in the area, with severe threats to human life and property expected.

Tropical cyclones are called hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones around the world

Tropical cyclones are named differently based on their region of origin due to historical traditions and cultural importance. These storms are called hurricanes in the Atlantic and northeast Pacific oceans, cyclones in the southwest Pacific and Indian oceans, and typhoons in the northwest Pacific Ocean.

Accurate climate models incorporate calculus to account for complex feedback loops

The simplest models assume uniformity across the Earth, with incoming energy from the sun being offset by the planet's albedo, or reflectiveness, which prevents the radiation from being fully absorbed. Incorporating elements such as atmospheric layers, latitude bands, geographic variability, and emissivity yields coupled differential equations quantifying Earth's interconnected systems.

Hurricane conditions are created in a University of Miami wind-wave tank

The SUrge-STructure-Atmosphere INteraction Wind Wave Laboratory contains a 38,000-gallon wave pool connected to a wind tunnel that can generate air currents of up to 155 mph. SUSTAIN allows scientists to study how the atmosphere interacts with the ocean in extreme weather.

Explore the effects of tornadoes of different scales

In this simulation, users can adjust the tornado's diameter and rotation speed to see its impact as it passes through a series of trees and a one-story home.

How accurate are climate models?

RealClimate: A new paper from Hausfather and colleagues with the most comprehensive assessment of climate model projections since the 1970s. Bottom line? Once you correct for small errors in the projected forcings, they did remarkably well.

Explore and visualize AI-driven riverine and flash-flood forecasts across more than 150 countries to anticipate these natural disasters up to seven days in advance.

Climatologists use past data and advanced models to forecast future climate trends

Unlike meteorology, which focuses on weather forecasting over several days, climatology identifies trends in data over periods of 30 or more years. This data can go back millions of years and help refine models to forecast centuries into the future.

The event horizon is an inescapable sphere around a black hole singularity

The horizon is often surrounded by an accretion disc of superheated material that orbits the black hole while emitting radiation. Light emitted behind a black hole can be bent around it to create the appearance of a ring of material known as a photon sphere.

Rapid intensification is the increase in a hurricane's sustained wind speed by at least 35 miles per hour within 24 hours, which can strengthen it by up to two categories.

Scientists use ground-based radar data to detect turbulence within clouds

NCAR developed the NEXRAD Turbulence Detection Algorithm and the Graphical Turbulence Guidance system to provide forecasts up to 18 hours ahead using ground-based Doppler radar data. Software systems also utilize an automated observation and reporting package—the EDR system—found on Delta, United, and Southwest Airlines aircraft.

Tornadoes produce inaudible signals to humans hours before forming

Researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have found that tornado-producing storms generate specific sounds below the range of human hearing, much like the infrasonic signals produced by earthquakes and avalanches. Although difficult to distinguish from wind noise, scientists hope to build systems that use these signals to improve tornado forecasting.

NASA monitors potentially hazardous asteroids and comets

Established in 2016, the Planetary Defense Coordination Office characterizes and tracks asteroids and comets passing within 30 million miles of Earth. Over 40,000 near-Earth asteroids have been discovered, although estimates suggest that about 14,000 more such objects remain to be found.

The geoid depicts what Earth would look like if not for tides and currents, given the planet's rotation and uneven gravitational field.