The idea that the median estimate of a group can be more accurate than individual expert estimates is called the 'wisdom of the crowd,' and dates back to the early 1900s.

Modern prediction markets—the platforms where people can trade bets that pay out depending on certain event outcomes—started in Iowa in 1988.

The 2024 US presidential election was a breakthrough moment for prediction markets

Founded in 2018 by MIT graduates, Kalshi won a federal appeals court ruling in October 2024 that allowed it to offer election contracts in the US. When prediction markets predicted President Donald Trump's win (more accurately than most polls), prediction markets were thrust into the public eye.

Prediction markets and sports betting are not forms of investing, despite how some fans portray them.

Prediction market Kalshi's CEO Tarek Mansour ​​has said that prediction markets are similar to the stock market—except instead of buying and selling shares of companies, users buy and sell "yes" or "no" on whether an event is going to happen or not.

Prediction markets—the platforms where users can trade bets that pay out depending on certain event outcomes—have faced questions about insider trading.

The prices on prediction markets reflect how the collective forecasts future outcomes.

Prediction markets help people bet on almost anything—which can be controversial

Critics point to incidents such as traders placing bets on the Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's capture and the two people in Israel who were charged on suspicion of using classified information to place bets about military actions.

How George Gallup changed political polling forever

Straw polls had been used in the 19th century, but it wasn't until George Gallup's use of random sampling in 1936 that the art became a science.

Kalshi is the first regulated prediction market in the US

Two migrant MIT students, Luana Lara Lopes and Tarek Mansour, shared an interest in hedging against uncertainty—from election outcomes to the Oscar awards. They fought hard for regulatory approval and their company now has a valuation in the billions. The platform has brought prediction markets into the mainstream.

Contract prices on prediction markets are generally interpreted as implied probabilities

For example, if a contract trading is at $0.65, that could be read as the market assigning a 65% probability to that event occurring. The most common format for prediction markets is winner-take-all: The contract settles at $1 if the event occurs, or $0 if it doesn't.

How prediction markets differ from sportsbooks matters for regulation

There are a number of differences and similarities between sportsbooks and prediction markets, despite both allowing people to bet on outcomes for sports-related events. For instance, prediction markets typically earn revenue through transaction fees rather than taking directional exposure to outcomes.

Donald Trump's Truth Social social media platform is launching a prediction market

Named "Truth Predict," the cryptocurrency-based prediction market will allow users of the Truth Social social media platform to place crypto bets on the outcome of certain events (think: sports games, the economy, and political races). Truth Social is primarily owned by President Donald Trump and his family.

Prediction markets convinced regulators they're not gambling, but exchanging commodity futures contracts

Kalshi built a legal case that argues its yes/no bets on real-world events are futures contracts, and the relevant regulator—the Commodity Futures Trading Commission—agreed in 2020. Many states are now suing major prediction markets, arguing this legal case is faulty and obscures the true substance of the business: gambling.

Some experts equate prediction markets to the new crack cocaine of gambling addiction

An addiction psychiatrist at UCLA says betting apps are far more potent than traditional gambling, citing a 19-year-old patient who lost $180,000 and hadn't left campus in a year, cycling through sports bets, crypto, meme stocks, and prediction markets on his phone. This interview explores the extreme edge of the nascent industry.

Dow Theory laid the groundwork for modern market analysis

Developed by Charles Dow in the late 19th century, Dow Theory argued that markets move in trends. Its principles—confirmation, trends and volume—still influence technical analysis today.

Use a prediction market profit or loss calculator

In order to calculate how much someone would make from a specific trade on a prediction market, this calculator asks for the purchase price of a given "yes" or "no" prediction, the number of contracts the trader plans to purchase, and more.

The worst election polling fails in US history

Presidential pollsters in the US have had some embarrassing failures. Here’s a catalog of those miscalls, from the scholar who literally wrote the book on them.

The CEOs of the two top prediction markets have a fierce rivalry

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan are both billionaire CEOs of the top two prediction markets—but they don't exactly get along. For instance, Mansour reportedly does not say the word "Polymarket" out loud, referring to it as the "non-American, unregulated platform."

Personality tests, like Myers-Briggs Type Indicator, feel accurate because humans tend to accept generic descriptions of themselves that include flattering statements—a psychological phenomenon known as the Barnum effect.

How chaos helps explain why small market corrections can produce major economic instability

Oxford University complex systems professor Doyne Farmer discusses how predictions from many economic models are overly weighted toward simple relationships, such as supply and demand, and external shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, real-world macroeconomic systems involve public and private actors interacting, producing feedback loops and cascading effects that resemble the oscillatory behavior seen in chaotic systems.

Here are some tips from Pew Research to help you distinguish between a good poll and an unreliable one.

Prediction markets have their own lingo that's an amalgamation of Gen Z and Gen Alpha slang

For instance, if you've been out-maneuvered by another trader, you've been "mogged." A "rulescuck" is someone who is a stickler for betting market rules and may try to win on a technicality.

Some experts and investors think short selling—a strategy in which investors bet that a stock will drop in value—helps keep the market healthy.

The 'Lindy effect' is a theory that says the longer things that don't physically wear out (like ideas, brands, or institutions) have been around, the more likely they are to exist for longer.

'The Simpsons' has a knack for inadvertently predicting the future

Some have noted that "The Simpsons" has accurately anticipated a number of events years before they happened, including the election of President Donald Trump, Disney buying 21st Century Fox, and Siegfried and Roy's tiger attack. This list breaks down some of the show's most uncanny inadvertent predictions.

Smart pricing algorithms can unintentionally work together to raise prices

Researchers have found that, through trial and error, algorithms designed to adjust prices based on market data can learn to mimic price-fixing tactics, even without explicit programming to do so. Over time, they "learn" that it is more profitable to avoid price wars and keep prices high when competitors lower prices.

Vitalik Buterin’s current thoughts on Ethereum

Vitalik Buterin isn’t just the founder of Ethereum—he’s also a blogger. In this blog post from late last year, Buterin discusses some of his favorite applications built on Ethereum: prediction markets like Polymarket, where users can bet crypto on the outcome of events like elections. Buterin argues that prediction markets also act as news sites for non-bettors, opening the floodgates for many different kinds of info-based apps on Ethereum. Read the post here.

The CME FedWatch Tool predicts the likelihood of future rate changes

It's based on federal fund futures contract prices. At a Fed meeting in July 2024, for instance, Chair Jerome Powell once again decided not to lower rates, though he said cuts could be on the table in September.

Play a game that reveals if investors with a crystal ball make better trades

The "crystal ball" game reveals how well you would do trading stocks and bonds if you could see the front page of the Wall Street Journal one day in advance.

The role stories play in mass economic trends like bitcoin, crashes

Economics is dominated by numbers, but stories play a huge role in the emotional shifts seen within macroeconomic trends. For example, bitcoin is not just a cost-benefit winner, but a compelling tale of decentralization and independence. This is a 20-minute summary of Nobel prize-winning economist Robert Shiller's "Narrative Economics."

A 'Simpsons' writer on the show's inadvertent predictions

Some have noted that "The Simpsons" has accurately anticipated a number of events years before they happened. In this interview, showrunner Al Jean explains how these unintentional predictions came about and why he believes the events were not so much visions of the future as educated guesses.

Prediction market Polymarket's CEO dropped out of New York University

Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan started building Polymarket when he was 21. Polymarket has been backed by billionaire investors such as Peter Thiel and Vitalik Buterin.

How political campaigns use your data

What do campaigns know about US voters, and how do they use that information to shape their strategies during elections? US political campaigns base their strategies and tactics on data collected from more than 200 million voting-age Americans. This visualization by Reuters breaks down how data firms create national databases of voter files, collecting information from a variety of sources to create detailed voter profiles and how political campaigns use that data.

Travel in time to how people felt about major US events

Pollsters track more than just politics: From civil rights to war declarations, go back and see how people felt about major events in the US with this timeline.

Critics argue the Dow no longer reflects the modern economy

With only 30 companies and a price-weighted formula, skeptics say the DJIA underrepresents vast sectors of the market. They claim it is outdated, though its close correlation with the broader S&P 500 keeps it relevant.

'The stock market' can be loosely defined as a set of exchanges and other places where shares of public companies are bought and sold.

Expert predictions on the metaverse

Experts are split about the likely evolution of a truly immersive metaverse. Many worry current online problems may be magnified if Web3 development is led by those who built today’s dominant web platforms.

Indicators of economic bubbles include euphoric narratives and extreme valuations.

Estimates say the creator economy market size will reach $500B by 2026

The creator economy, a system powered by people creating online content for monetizable audiences, has democratized fame and influence. Much of influencers' recent power comes from Gen Z's preference for authenticity over the polished approach of legacy media.

Experts suggest the industry could be a $45B business

Sports betting used to primarily consist of who would win and the points spread, but the rise of online betting apps has fueled a substantial increase in parlay bets. "Existing markets are still growing at a rapid clip," said Noah Naparst, who evaluates sports-betting companies for Goldman Sachs. "So we’re not mature yet, but we’re not in the early wildcat days of the market anymore, either.”

AI expert shows the cyclical nature of AI hype—in 1988

Rodney Brooks wrote several decades ago about the boom and bust cycles of artificial intelligence. Starting from the 1950s excitement over ENIAC's multiplication through the second launch of then-novel neural networks, Brooks suggests AI progresses incrementally despite the hype.

Insider trading is the practice of trading a company's securities based on material, nonpublic information.

The origin of chaos theory, colloquially known as the 'butterfly effect'

The theory explains that systems following well-understood physical laws can still produce unpredictable outcomes due to small variations in their initial conditions. Originally identified in weather data, elements of chaos have been observed in stock market fluctuations, cardiac arrhythmias, and the evolution of online social movements.

Despite being completely legal to discuss salaries with your coworkers, the practice largely remains taboo in the US, particularly amongst older workers.

Pay transparency—once considered taboo—is gaining momentum. Despite being legally protected since 1935, open salary discussions have only recently become more common, especially among younger workers. This overview explores how cultural norms, economic shifts, and new state laws are reshaping the conversation around what we earn.

Why some nations reach economic success and others don’t

The 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics winners, Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson, were honored for their compelling research on the factors that influence a nation’s prosperity. Spanning two decades, their work presents insights into how societal organization can explain the income discrepancies between different countries. In general, their research shows that economic success favors more free and open societies. Listen for more fascinating insights.

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

David Ogilvy once worked for the man who created the Gallup Poll

In 1938, when Ogilvy came to the United States, he started working for George Gallup’s Audience Research Institute in New Jersey. He took his learnings with him through the rest of his career, including during World War II, when Ogilvy worked with the Intelligence Service at the British Embassy in Washington.

Joel Mokyr won the 2025 Economics Nobel as a historian of scientific ideas

Many Nobel Prizes for Economics go to economists for their sophisticated quantification and large-scale studies and surveys. And while Northwestern's Mokyr has conducted such studies, his published works are more traditional history, where he argues for the significance of ideas to the development of material economics.

Hear how gerrymandering is like 'Moneyball applied to politics'

In a 2016 interview, journalist David Daley explained how Republicans used data-driven targeting after the 2010 census to lock in durable advantages, comparing modern gerrymandering strategies to the analytics revolution in baseball.

Retail investing by the numbers

When average Americans began pouring into the stock market, Wall Street wasn’t sure if its new guests were there to stay. But at the end of 2023, Public confidently declared that retail investors “weren’t going anywhere” after 30 million new individuals began buying and selling stock. Download the report to learn more here.