The prices on prediction markets reflect how the collective forecasts future outcomes.

Contract prices on prediction markets are generally interpreted as implied probabilities

For example, if a contract trading is at $0.65, that could be read as the market assigning a 65% probability to that event occurring. The most common format for prediction markets is winner-take-all: The contract settles at $1 if the event occurs, or $0 if it doesn't.

Prediction markets and sports betting are not forms of investing, despite how some fans portray them.

How prediction markets differ from sportsbooks matters for regulation

There are a number of differences and similarities between sportsbooks and prediction markets, despite both allowing people to bet on outcomes for sports-related events. For instance, prediction markets typically earn revenue through transaction fees rather than taking directional exposure to outcomes.

Use a prediction market profit or loss calculator

In order to calculate how much someone would make from a specific trade on a prediction market, this calculator asks for the purchase price of a given "yes" or "no" prediction, the number of contracts the trader plans to purchase, and more.

Prediction market Kalshi's CEO Tarek Mansour ​​has said that prediction markets are similar to the stock market—except instead of buying and selling shares of companies, users buy and sell "yes" or "no" on whether an event is going to happen or not.

Prediction markets—the platforms where users can trade bets that pay out depending on certain event outcomes—have faced questions about insider trading.

Modern prediction markets—the platforms where people can trade bets that pay out depending on certain event outcomes—started in Iowa in 1988.

Prediction markets help people bet on almost anything—which can be controversial

Critics point to incidents such as traders placing bets on the Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's capture and the two people in Israel who were charged on suspicion of using classified information to place bets about military actions.

Prediction markets convinced regulators they're not gambling, but exchanging commodity futures contracts

Kalshi built a legal case that argues its yes/no bets on real-world events are futures contracts, and the relevant regulator—the Commodity Futures Trading Commission—agreed in 2020. Many states are now suing major prediction markets, arguing this legal case is faulty and obscures the true substance of the business: gambling.

The idea that the median estimate of a group can be more accurate than individual expert estimates is called the 'wisdom of the crowd,' and dates back to the early 1900s.

The 2024 US presidential election was a breakthrough moment for prediction markets

Founded in 2018 by MIT graduates, Kalshi won a federal appeals court ruling in October 2024 that allowed it to offer election contracts in the US. When prediction markets predicted President Donald Trump's win (more accurately than most polls), prediction markets were thrust into the public eye.

Some experts equate prediction markets to the new crack cocaine of gambling addiction

An addiction psychiatrist at UCLA says betting apps are far more potent than traditional gambling, citing a 19-year-old patient who lost $180,000 and hadn't left campus in a year, cycling through sports bets, crypto, meme stocks, and prediction markets on his phone. This interview explores the extreme edge of the nascent industry.

What something costs is reflective of a balance in the market determined by the amount of demand relative to the supply of goods and services

Because economies are complex systems, a wide variety of issues influence this balance—including some things generally considered to be positive, like rising wages.

Experts suggest the industry could be a $45B business

Sports betting used to primarily consist of who would win and the points spread, but the rise of online betting apps has fueled a substantial increase in parlay bets. "Existing markets are still growing at a rapid clip," said Noah Naparst, who evaluates sports-betting companies for Goldman Sachs. "So we’re not mature yet, but we’re not in the early wildcat days of the market anymore, either.”

Shorting is a high-risk and expensive investment strategy that hedge funds specialize in

Most investors buy stocks with the expectation that those stocks will be worth more tomorrow than they are today. Short selling, known as “shorting,” a stock is the opposite: The investor is betting the stock will drop in value.

Smart pricing algorithms can unintentionally work together to raise prices

Researchers have found that, through trial and error, algorithms designed to adjust prices based on market data can learn to mimic price-fixing tactics, even without explicit programming to do so. Over time, they "learn" that it is more profitable to avoid price wars and keep prices high when competitors lower prices.

Donald Trump's Truth Social social media platform is launching a prediction market

Named "Truth Predict," the cryptocurrency-based prediction market will allow users of the Truth Social social media platform to place crypto bets on the outcome of certain events (think: sports games, the economy, and political races). Truth Social is primarily owned by President Donald Trump and his family.

Americans spent nearly $150B in sports-related bets in 2024

These bets ranged from who would win the World Series to what color clothes famous celebrities would wear to the Super Bowl. Experts believe the industry will continue to grow.

Some experts and investors think short selling—a strategy in which investors bet that a stock will drop in value—helps keep the market healthy.

Prediction markets have their own lingo that's an amalgamation of Gen Z and Gen Alpha slang

For instance, if you've been out-maneuvered by another trader, you've been "mogged." A "rulescuck" is someone who is a stickler for betting market rules and may try to win on a technicality.

The CEOs of the two top prediction markets have a fierce rivalry

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan are both billionaire CEOs of the top two prediction markets—but they don't exactly get along. For instance, Mansour reportedly does not say the word "Polymarket" out loud, referring to it as the "non-American, unregulated platform."

Futures contracts—which are agreements to buy or sell a standardized asset at a specific future time—are the primary way commodities are bought and sold.

Dynamic pricing algorithms allow online businesses or box stores with electronic price tags to change prices in real time based on supply, demand, time, location, and competitor prices.

Kalshi is the first regulated prediction market in the US

Two migrant MIT students, Luana Lara Lopes and Tarek Mansour, shared an interest in hedging against uncertainty—from election outcomes to the Oscar awards. They fought hard for regulatory approval and their company now has a valuation in the billions. The platform has brought prediction markets into the mainstream.

Commodity traders are most commonly 'hedgers' or 'speculators'

While hedgers often produce and consume physical commodities (like corn, copper, or natural gas) and use the markets to manage the price risk for those commodities, speculators provide liquidity by betting on commodity price changes.

Sports betting, explained

Since a 2018 Supreme Court decision overturned the Bradley Act, which spurred a state-by-state legalization of online gambling, sports betting has become a rapidly growing multibillion-dollar industry.

Decoding sports-betting language

The world of sports gambling is filled with insider lingo: What's a "spread"? How about a "moneyline" or a "parlay"? This resource breaks down the jargon, helping you navigate the industry or, at least, giving you the keys to talk about it.

Book building is widely considered the most efficient way to price securities

During the book-building process, bankers determine an IPO’s price per share, requesting bids from fund managers and other institutional investors for the number of shares they want and how much they’d be willing to pay for them.

Breaking down the jargon and strategy of horse betting

Placing bets on horse racing isn't the same as a football or basketball game. You can pick a winner (win), who will come in second (place), and even third (show). And all the bets placed on a race are pooled together and divided among the winners. This Top Ten Picks video teaches the mechanics behind each bet, and shares insider tips that can lead to more informed betting choices.

Learn about what causes economic bubbles, including how forces like cheap credit, soaring optimism, and feedback loops push asset prices far beyond fundamentals—until a single shock triggers panic, selling, and a rapid collapse.

Stock options give investors the right to buy or sell a stock at an agreed-upon price and date

There are two types of options: calls, which are bets that a stock will rise (or not rise past a certain point), and puts, bets that a stock will fall (or not fall past a specific level). While stock options give investors the right to do these trades, they do not obligate buyers to follow through with them—sellers, on the other hand, must perform the option if it is exercised

Since its introduction, the price of bitcoin has experienced significant volatility

Driven in large part by speculation and intense social media attention during the pandemic, along with the availability of capital during near-zero interest rate periods, the price has seen at least three major crashes despite steadily increasing over the long run since 2014.

Futures contracts are agreements to buy or sell a standardized asset at a specific future time

When it comes to commodity trading, these legally binding agreements tend to operate on a monthly basis. Futures contracts are typically traded on futures exchanges, like those operated by CME Group and the Intercontinental Exchange.

Bond yields are the returns investors earn from a bond's interest—and they're a key economic barometer.

How did the bull and bear markets get their names?

The terms "bull" and "bear" are used to describe certain sentiments or activities in the financial markets. A bear market refers to declining stock prices and pessimistic outlooks, whereas a bull market represents the opposite.

Indicators of economic bubbles include euphoric narratives and extreme valuations.

A short squeeze happens when short sellers increase stock prices by buying shares back quickly

When short sellers realize their positions may be incorrect—usually triggered by increasing share prices—they often try to quickly buy back their shares in order to minimize their total losses. When this happens on a large scale, that buying activity can drastically increase to represent the seemingly high demand for that stock. The result is called a "short squeeze," which refers to short sellers literally being squeezed out of their positions by rising prices.

How NFL teams mistake the values of their draft picks

The NFL draft is a highly anticipated event. Each spring football franchises take turns selecting roughly 250 players over seven rounds. Teams regularly trade draft picks to reach a certain player they expect to fall at their selection point, giving market analysts the ability to determine the value of those trades. This video explores the NFL draft market's inefficiency.

Spot markets are where commodities intended for relatively immediate delivery are traded

Spot markets are where physical securities are exchanged for cash. Also known as cash markets or physical markets, the trades are relatively immediate—both parties agree to an immediate transfer. Currencies and securities can also be traded on spot markets.

'The stock market' can be loosely defined as a set of exchanges and other places where shares of public companies are bought and sold.

How math whizzes exploit sportsbooks

Chris Dirkus is a professional sports bettor who approaches the hobby as a math problem, not from a fan's perspective. He focuses on mispriced odds in popular games where many fans are betting for high liquidity. He's one of a rare segment of sports bettors exploiting slow models and human mistakes.

The bond market is where bonds and other debt securities are traded

Bonds are fixed-income investments allowing individuals to lend a specific amount of money to a large entity, like a government or corporation, for a set amount of time in return for interest paid out over the life of the loan. The bond market is widely considered a key economic barometer.

Vitalik Buterin’s current thoughts on Ethereum

Vitalik Buterin isn’t just the founder of Ethereum—he’s also a blogger. In this blog post from late last year, Buterin discusses some of his favorite applications built on Ethereum: prediction markets like Polymarket, where users can bet crypto on the outcome of events like elections. Buterin argues that prediction markets also act as news sites for non-bettors, opening the floodgates for many different kinds of info-based apps on Ethereum. Read the post here.

'Daily fantasy' is a high-stakes subset of fantasy sports

The form, pioneered by platforms like FanDuel and DraftKings, uses anonymous daily leagues and large payouts, looks more like typical betting than the season-long, community-minded setup of more traditional fantasy.

Visualize stock market's volatility between 2017 and 2025.

The CME FedWatch Tool predicts the likelihood of future rate changes

It's based on federal fund futures contract prices. At a Fed meeting in July 2024, for instance, Chair Jerome Powell once again decided not to lower rates, though he said cuts could be on the table in September.

'Buying the dip' refers to purchasing stocks or ETFs after a price decline in anticipation of a rebound

Some investors see it as getting a discount before the market recovers and the temporary declines turn into gains.

Check the real-time price of bitcoin

Bitcoin has gone through several boom and bust cycles. Those peaks and valleys sit on top of a steadily rising value, growing as the currency gains wider adoption. As of 2024, bitcoin’s total market value was over $1.3T, with more than 19.6 million coins in circulation. Still, the value fluctuates.

Read about why bans on short selling are a controversial policy

Generally, short selling is legal, but regulations often restrict short positions when a stock has experienced a sharp price decline (more than 10% in one day). However, negative feedback loops in times of financial crisis have given short selling a bad reputation. The government has temporarily banned short selling during previous market downturns—like The Great Recession of 2008 and the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic—but experts argue whether those bans actually improved market stability or just distorted prices.

Insider trading is the practice of trading a company's securities based on material, nonpublic information.