A recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP, but in practice, these economic phenomena are more complex.

There's no single definition of an economic recession, though recessions are commonly identified by two consecutive quarters of shrinking gross domestic product.

One signal that a recession has become a depression? When GDP declines more than 10%

There’s no single definition for recessions or depressions, but both are marked by sustained periods of declining economic activity. Depressions are more severe than recessions.

The clearest sign of a recession is a steady increase in job losses and high unemployment.

The US has been through 34 recessions since 1854

From 1855 to 2020, the average US recession lasted for an average of 17 months. But in the 20th and 21st centuries, the average recession length has shortened, decreasing to 14 months.

Roughly $5T of stimulus money flooded the economy during the pandemic

Recessions can last anywhere from months to years. To encourage economic growth, governments use policy levers such as lowering interest rates or introducing a stimulus. Economists credit massive stimulus funds for helping the economy quickly recover from a recession during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Sahm rule attempts to predict recessions based on unemployment trends.

A V-shaped recovery from a recession is the most common kind

When charted, recession recoveries resemble letters including V, U, W, L, and K. For instance, an L-shaped recovery involves a steep decline that slowly reverses.

Explore a breakdown of the US gross domestic product, including GDP's growth over time, the GDP of individual states, and which industries contribute the most to US GDP.

Recessions are considered to be inevitable by modern economic standards

Recessions are caused by imbalances in the market and are guaranteed to happen in capitalist systems, but predicting them is a complex task.

Economists define deflation as a sustained decline in prices across an economy

Deflationary periods are characterized by broad, significant price declines. The Federal Reserve can monitor deflation by tracking prices through price indexes, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which characterizes the average costs for consumers each month.

In 2025, the US credit rating was downgraded over concerns about the debt-to-GDP ratio.

The Federal Reserve fought the Great Recession primarily with quantitative easing and repurchasing agreements.

The Great Depression is one of history's most notable periods of deflation

The stock market crash of 1929 helped trigger a period of deflation in the United States by creating a drastic decrease in the total money supply. Because of the United States' central role in the world economy, virtually every single country was impacted by the recession.

Experts recommend preparing your finances accordingly if you're expecting to be laid off soon, taking actions such as looking into the cost of replacing employer-sponsored benefits like healthcare.

In a 'K-shaped' economy, higher earners' spending rises while lower earners' spending stagnates or decreases.

COVID-19's shock to employment rates sparked some economists to fear deflation

COVID-19 simultaneously disrupted the supply chain and the labor market. Since the unemployment rate had hit record highs, some economists were worried that the supply chain would recover before the labor market. If that had happened, businesses would have been producing goods, but no one would have been able to buy them because they wouldn't have the disposable income to do so.

When consumers think an economic downturn is looming, the 'lipstick index' economic theory argues that sales of more affordable luxury items (such as lipstick) go up.

In the wake of the Great Depression, a Russian-American economist named Simon Kuznets popularized the formula for gross domestic product to summarize the health of the economy and provide the American government with a metric to track growth.

Government shutdowns can cost the US economy billions

The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the 2018-19 shutdown reduced economic output by about $11B, including a permanent loss of roughly $3B

An inverted yield curve has preceded every recession that’s occurred in the last 50 years

Prolonged yield curve inversions can predict recessions, but even brief inversions can cause investors to react with knee-jerk reactions.

In 2023, the US money supply fell at its fastest rate since the 1930s

The money supply tracks how much cash, as well as electronic funds like savings accounts, is circulating through the economy. And a downward turn can be a bad sign.

Over 1.9 million Americans—more than a quarter of those unemployed—have been classified as 'long-term' unemployed in a given month in 2026, meaning they've been out of work for at least 27 weeks.

Gross domestic product only accounts for consumer spending, investments, government spending, and net exports—meaning factors such as stock market performance, Social Security payments, household labor, and the value of environmental damage largely aren't represented.

Experts don't believe upbeat tunes, called 'recession pop,' are legitimate recession indicators

Social media users have begun deeming pop music by the likes of Kesha and Katy Perry a "recession indicator" as they try to predict the next economic downturn.

Ranking the world’s economies: 1980 vs. 2025

The US remains the world’s largest economy, having increased its annual gross domestic product from $2.9T in 1980 to $30.6T in 2025. In 1980, China ranked seventh globally with a GDP of $304B. In 2025, China ranked second with a GDP of $19.4T.

Some economists argue that the national debt is not a critical concern.

Falling demand and lower costs of production cause deflation

"Falling demand" refers to anything that changes someone's willingness to spend money on goods and services. Global recessions, fears of a worldwide recession, and a fall in the money supply are all factors that could lead to falling demand. Likewise, lower production costs allow companies to increase production, which can lead to a surplus in supply.

The men’s underwear index predicts recessions based on men’s underwear sales

Internet users have been using some nontraditional indicators to predict whether a recession is imminent, including the return of so-called “recession pop.”

Read about the evolution of the S&P 500 and its recession recovery

Since the S&P 500 is considered a bellwether index (meaning it represents the health of the US economy), its value is important for investors in both bull and bear markets. The S&P 500 has been impacted by recessions and downturns, from the 1970s oil crisis to the dot-com crash of the early 2000s.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases a monthly 'jobs report' that tracks the unemployment rate, the number of Americans currently on payroll, and more.

The US unemployment rate soared to over 24% during the Great Depression, the highest in recorded history.

Markets have always recovered and hit new highs following crashes

The crash that preceded the Great Depression was the most severe the US has ever experienced. It was 28 times worse than the downturn that followed the Cuban Missile Crisis.

'Good deflation' happens when prices naturally track with supply, meaning prices change gradually

This tends to make products and services more affordable and normalizes the standard of living. Bad deflation usually happens when there are sudden changes to either supply or demand. Near-zero [interest rates helped create the real estate bubble that sparked the Great Recession when it crashed](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMo9mD8j7IA&t=91s) Because deflation distorts the value of money, deflation is particularly harmful for borrowers. Low interest rates made it easy for businesses and everyday people to take on enormous debt, which exacerbated the effects of the recession.

There are three different ways to calculate gross domestic product: the expenditure approach, the value-added approach, and the income approach.

Disinflation, a decrease in the rate of inflation, is different from deflation

Disinflation happens when prices are still going up, just at a slower rate. Prolonged disinflation is also often accompanied by a recession, making it painful for consumers.

Why there's a snack recession

Inflation and economic uncertainty have driven many Americans to make cuts to their snack budgets, according to reports from major food manufacturers like General Mills, JM Smucker, and Campbell's. Major retailers have also observed lower-income consumers cutting back on nonessentials due to the macroeconomic environment.

What is quantitative easing?

Quantitative easing was a relatively new method the Federal Reserve used to curb deflation during the Great Recession. In this process, a central bank digitally creates money that is used to purchase assets, usually government bonds. This lowers returns on low-risk bonds, encouraging investors to put their money in high-risk, short-term stocks, and moves money through the system.

The UK was already in a depression before the US Great Depression took hold

The US Great Depression was felt globally, but the severity and length of different countries’ economic downturns varied. For instance, Japan was the first country to exit its depression.

US state economies compared to entire countries

This map compares US state economies by their gross domestic product to that of a similarly sized country. For instance, California has the largest state economy in the US, with a GDP nearly equal to that of India, the fifth-largest economy in the world. Click here to see how the rest of the states compare.

US homeownership rates declined from the start of the Great Recession through 2016.

Consumer spending accounts for 70% of America's gross domestic product.

The monthly US employment report is eagerly anticipated by Wall Street and has significant impacts on markets.

A list of the world's top 25 economies by GDP

Gross domestic product estimates the value of goods and services produced in a country, typically through the expenditure method, which adds up spending by consumers, investors and governments with the value of exports. The top five economies are the US, China, Germany, Japan and India.

Many retail investors exited the stock market after 2008, leading to a drop in individual market participation

That changed thanks to GameStop, federal stimulus checks, and strong corporate results in the first quarter of 2021. This chart plots how much retail investors poured into the market each day, reaching records in early 2023.

North American department store retail groups report sales declined from 2018 to 2023

That's according to a recent report from Bain & Company that dives into consumer sentiment around department store shopping and explores a potential reset for the industry.

During COVID-19, the Fed made drastic moves in attempts to shore up the US economy called quantitative easing

The Fed took an aggressive approach to help the US economy during COVID-19 beyond standard monetary levers, including broad purchases of mortgage-backed securities, Treasury securities, and more.

Key moments that shaped the national debt include the Civil War, both World Wars, the 2008 recession, and the COVID-19 pandemic.

See a breakdown of every state's portion of the entire US gross domestic product.

Government shutdowns, 101

Roughly a quarter of the US federal government's spending must be approved annually through a set of 12 appropriations bills in Congress. When they aren't, a government shutdown ensues, where federal agencies are legally barred from spending any further money on nonessentials. This explainer covers the basics of government shutdowns and their impact on the broader culture.

Why the US can’t end poverty

Despite being among the wealthiest nations in the world in terms of GDP, the US has a major poverty issue, with more than 37 million Americans living in poverty as of 2023. Part of the issue is that the standards by which the US measures poverty are outdated: The official poverty measure in the US today is based on calculations from the 1960s. Find out more in this video.