Recessions are considered to be inevitable by modern economic standards

A recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP, but in practice, these economic phenomena are more complex.

There's no single definition of an economic recession, though recessions are commonly identified by two consecutive quarters of shrinking gross domestic product.

An inverted yield curve has preceded every recession that’s occurred in the last 50 years

Prolonged yield curve inversions can predict recessions, but even brief inversions can cause investors to react with knee-jerk reactions.

How chaos helps explain why small market corrections can produce major economic instability

Oxford University complex systems professor Doyne Farmer discusses how predictions from many economic models are overly weighted toward simple relationships, such as supply and demand, and external shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, real-world macroeconomic systems involve public and private actors interacting, producing feedback loops and cascading effects that resemble the oscillatory behavior seen in chaotic systems.

The clearest sign of a recession is a steady increase in job losses and high unemployment.

The US has been through 34 recessions since 1854

From 1855 to 2020, the average US recession lasted for an average of 17 months. But in the 20th and 21st centuries, the average recession length has shortened, decreasing to 14 months.

Learn about what causes economic bubbles, including how forces like cheap credit, soaring optimism, and feedback loops push asset prices far beyond fundamentals—until a single shock triggers panic, selling, and a rapid collapse.

The Bretton Woods economic order was built on Keynesian principles

Keynesian economics suggests that governments should actively manage economies to prevent downturns, promote employment, and regulate markets. The Bretton Woods institutions were created based on this belief that coordinated public intervention could prevent the economic crises of the 1930s.

The Sahm rule attempts to predict recessions based on unemployment trends.

In 2007, Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, warned of an impending financial crisis.

One signal that a recession has become a depression? When GDP declines more than 10%

There’s no single definition for recessions or depressions, but both are marked by sustained periods of declining economic activity. Depressions are more severe than recessions.

One theory suggests real estate markets follow a predictable 18-year pattern

The theory dictates that real estate markets tend to experience about 14 years of growth, including a mid-cycle dip, then experience four years of decline. Real estate experts in London discuss the theory in an article.

What something costs is reflective of a balance in the market determined by the amount of demand relative to the supply of goods and services

Because economies are complex systems, a wide variety of issues influence this balance—including some things generally considered to be positive, like rising wages.

Roughly $5T of stimulus money flooded the economy during the pandemic

Recessions can last anywhere from months to years. To encourage economic growth, governments use policy levers such as lowering interest rates or introducing a stimulus. Economists credit massive stimulus funds for helping the economy quickly recover from a recession during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The men’s underwear index predicts recessions based on men’s underwear sales

Internet users have been using some nontraditional indicators to predict whether a recession is imminent, including the return of so-called “recession pop.”

When consumers think an economic downturn is looming, the 'lipstick index' economic theory argues that sales of more affordable luxury items (such as lipstick) go up.

The lifecycle of a financial bubble often follows a predictable pattern

Economist Hyman Minsky originated what became a five-stage model of an economic bubble: a new “displacement,” a rapid boom, euphoric speculation, early profit-taking by insiders, and finally panic selling. From Japan’s 1980s real-estate surge to the 2008 crash, the pattern repeats across eras and assets.

Experts don't believe upbeat tunes, called 'recession pop,' are legitimate recession indicators

Social media users have begun deeming pop music by the likes of Kesha and Katy Perry a "recession indicator" as they try to predict the next economic downturn.

'Good deflation' happens when prices naturally track with supply, meaning prices change gradually

This tends to make products and services more affordable and normalizes the standard of living. Bad deflation usually happens when there are sudden changes to either supply or demand. Near-zero [interest rates helped create the real estate bubble that sparked the Great Recession when it crashed](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMo9mD8j7IA&t=91s) Because deflation distorts the value of money, deflation is particularly harmful for borrowers. Low interest rates made it easy for businesses and everyday people to take on enormous debt, which exacerbated the effects of the recession.

Falling demand and lower costs of production cause deflation

"Falling demand" refers to anything that changes someone's willingness to spend money on goods and services. Global recessions, fears of a worldwide recession, and a fall in the money supply are all factors that could lead to falling demand. Likewise, lower production costs allow companies to increase production, which can lead to a surplus in supply.

Watch Ray Dalio explain how the economy works

Dalio describes the economy as a machine that runs on three main cycles: productivity growth, the short-term debt cycle, and the long-term debt cycle. Dalio says layering these three cycles on top of each other essentially creates a template for understanding changes in the economy.

A centrally planned economy is one where the government—not markets—sets production

This Investopedia article explains how command economies work, which countries have used them, and why even market-based nations like the US sometimes adopt tools such as rationing or price controls during wartime or national emergencies.

John Maynard Keynes was one of the most influential economists of the 20th century

Keynes influenced economic thought by arguing that governments should spend to stabilize economies during downturns. His ideas shaped the postwar international order and remain central to modern economic policy debates.

Markets have always recovered and hit new highs following crashes

The crash that preceded the Great Depression was the most severe the US has ever experienced. It was 28 times worse than the downturn that followed the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Why Ray Dalio thinks the US deficit is a political problem

Dalio frequently argues that debt cycles are inevitable and a tradition of every empire. However, he said in 2025 that the US was headed for a debt crisis. Dalio says that while Republicans and Democrats agree on the math of the debt crisis, all politicians make promises to neither increase taxes nor cut government benefits—which Dalio says can't close the deficit.

Experts recommend preparing your finances accordingly if you're expecting to be laid off soon, taking actions such as looking into the cost of replacing employer-sponsored benefits like healthcare.

The Great Depression is one of history's most notable periods of deflation

The stock market crash of 1929 helped trigger a period of deflation in the United States by creating a drastic decrease in the total money supply. Because of the United States' central role in the world economy, virtually every single country was impacted by the recession.

The failures of the interwar period made the case for a new international system

After World War I, countries devalued their currencies, raised tariffs to block imports, and seized territory unchecked, with the international community unable to organize effectively to stop them. The result was a global depression and, eventually, another world war.

Indicators of economic bubbles include euphoric narratives and extreme valuations.

Ray Dalio has argued that American capitalism is broken, citing economic factors like a growing wealth divide

Dalio also points to stalling income growth, weak healthcare systems, and poor educational outcomes when arguing that American capitalism needs serious reform. However, critics point out that Dalio has amassed a large fortune by running the world's largest hedge fund and question whether Dalio really wants economic reform.

Why there's a snack recession

Inflation and economic uncertainty have driven many Americans to make cuts to their snack budgets, according to reports from major food manufacturers like General Mills, JM Smucker, and Campbell's. Major retailers have also observed lower-income consumers cutting back on nonessentials due to the macroeconomic environment.

The role stories play in mass economic trends like bitcoin, crashes

Economics is dominated by numbers, but stories play a huge role in the emotional shifts seen within macroeconomic trends. For example, bitcoin is not just a cost-benefit winner, but a compelling tale of decentralization and independence. This is a 20-minute summary of Nobel prize-winning economist Robert Shiller's "Narrative Economics."

Modern Monetary Theory 101

Modern Monetary Theory is a macroeconomic theory that says government spending should not be restrained by fears of rising debt. Here's a breakdown of how the theory works.

A V-shaped recovery from a recession is the most common kind

When charted, recession recoveries resemble letters including V, U, W, L, and K. For instance, an L-shaped recovery involves a steep decline that slowly reverses.

Retail investors are not professionals—they invest their own money

For retail investors, the stakes may seem higher and more personal. Critics say that this dynamic means that retail investors are more susceptible to behavioral biases that could lead them to make poor decisions when it comes to buying and selling assets. For instance, fear of missing out could cause a retail investor to buy a stock that is popular but not a financially worthy investment.

Read about the evolution of the S&P 500 and its recession recovery

Since the S&P 500 is considered a bellwether index (meaning it represents the health of the US economy), its value is important for investors in both bull and bear markets. The S&P 500 has been impacted by recessions and downturns, from the 1970s oil crisis to the dot-com crash of the early 2000s.

COVID-19's shock to employment rates sparked some economists to fear deflation

COVID-19 simultaneously disrupted the supply chain and the labor market. Since the unemployment rate had hit record highs, some economists were worried that the supply chain would recover before the labor market. If that had happened, businesses would have been producing goods, but no one would have been able to buy them because they wouldn't have the disposable income to do so.

The psychological aspect of deflation makes it difficult for policymakers to stabilize the economy

That psychological aspect is referred to as "the deflationary spiral." When prices start decreasing, people tend to hold on to their money to pay the lowest prices. But as prices start stabilizing, people resist increasing prices. (Some users may experience a paywall.)

Prediction markets and sports betting are not forms of investing, despite how some fans portray them.

Economists define deflation as a sustained decline in prices across an economy

Deflationary periods are characterized by broad, significant price declines. The Federal Reserve can monitor deflation by tracking prices through price indexes, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which characterizes the average costs for consumers each month.

The Federal Reserve fought the Great Recession primarily with quantitative easing and repurchasing agreements.

The World Bank, IMF, and WTO all face calls for structural reform

Researchers argue that all three major institutions face legitimacy and effectiveness challenges, including outdated governance structures, unequal voting power, and difficulty adapting to a more multipolar world.

Arguments for returning to a gold standard reappear from time to time

However, critics argue that globalization has made the gold standard impractical for modern economies, as it limits a nation’s ability to have a flexible monetary policy—hence, none of today's governments have a gold standard.

Hear Ray Dalio's principles for navigating a changing world order

Dalio argues that there aren't new events in history, per se, and that people are taken by surprise by events because they just haven't happened in their lifetimes—not because they are actually novel.

Proponents argue that abandoning the rules-based order risks a return to the chaos that led to 2 world wars

Brookings scholar Robert Kagan warns that if China and Russia gain regional dominance, the world could return to the unstable conditions of the late 19th century—the same chaos that led to two devastating world wars.

'Planet Money' debates the financial indicators that defined 2025

In this end-of-year episode, "Planet Money" stages a playful debate over which economic indicators best captured the chaos of 2025—from tariffs to AI bubbles—and which signals may matter most as the US economy heads into 2026.

Modern prediction markets—the platforms where people can trade bets that pay out depending on certain event outcomes—started in Iowa in 1988.

Why private credit has faced challenges in recent years

The factors that some experts say are driving what could be private credit's most challenging era since the 2008 financial crisis include global economic uncertainty around trade and tariffs, investor fears about the amount of money being spent on artificial intelligence, and more.

After the USSR's fall, many experts believed liberal democracy had permanently prevailed

Political scientist Francis Fukuyama argued in 1992 that liberal democracy and market capitalism had defeated their ideological opponents and would eventually spread everywhere—a thesis he called "the end of history." Subsequent decades complicated that claim.

Understanding the differences between capitalism and socialism

The two economic systems are rarely found in their pure form. Capitalism emphasizes private property, capital accumulation, and limited government regulation, while socialism favors government control of production to meet the needs of everyone rather than to generate profit. Most economies are a mix of both.