The men’s underwear index predicts recessions based on men’s underwear sales

When consumers think an economic downturn is looming, the 'lipstick index' economic theory argues that sales of more affordable luxury items (such as lipstick) go up.

Experts don't believe upbeat tunes, called 'recession pop,' are legitimate recession indicators

Social media users have begun deeming pop music by the likes of Kesha and Katy Perry a "recession indicator" as they try to predict the next economic downturn.

An inverted yield curve has preceded every recession that’s occurred in the last 50 years

Prolonged yield curve inversions can predict recessions, but even brief inversions can cause investors to react with knee-jerk reactions.

What is the lipstick index?

The lipstick index is an economic theory that breaks down to this: when consumers think an economic downturn is looming, sales for affordable luxury items (such as lipstick) go up. While it's not an economically proven theory, it's still worth considering. So why do consumers exhibit this behavior? Read more about the lipstick index to find out.

The clearest sign of a recession is a steady increase in job losses and high unemployment.

The Sahm rule attempts to predict recessions based on unemployment trends.

There's no single definition of an economic recession, though recessions are commonly identified by two consecutive quarters of shrinking gross domestic product.

Why there's a snack recession

Inflation and economic uncertainty have driven many Americans to make cuts to their snack budgets, according to reports from major food manufacturers like General Mills, JM Smucker, and Campbell's. Major retailers have also observed lower-income consumers cutting back on nonessentials due to the macroeconomic environment.

A recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP, but in practice, these economic phenomena are more complex.

Recessions are considered to be inevitable by modern economic standards

Recessions are caused by imbalances in the market and are guaranteed to happen in capitalist systems, but predicting them is a complex task.

Many economists see Black Friday as a litmus test for consumer confidence

Some investors and analysts look at Black Friday’s sales numbers as a way to gauge the overall health of the retail industry—and consumer confidence at large. However, others don’t believe Black Friday results have a particularly significant impact on markets, arguing that the figures only cause short-term gains or losses.

The US has been through 34 recessions since 1854

From 1855 to 2020, the average US recession lasted for an average of 17 months. But in the 20th and 21st centuries, the average recession length has shortened, decreasing to 14 months.

In 2023, the US money supply fell at its fastest rate since the 1930s

The money supply tracks how much cash, as well as electronic funds like savings accounts, is circulating through the economy. And a downward turn can be a bad sign.

In 2007, Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, warned of an impending financial crisis.

So-called 'recession blondes and brunettes' skip hair appointments to save money

One hairstyle trend is seen as a recession indicator: people letting their hair grow darker roots instead of frequently splurging on expensive blonde highlights.

Explore 'The Big Mac Index,' an economic indicator created by The Economist as a cheeky reference for the purchasing power of consumers across different countries.

One signal that a recession has become a depression? When GDP declines more than 10%

There’s no single definition for recessions or depressions, but both are marked by sustained periods of declining economic activity. Depressions are more severe than recessions.

North American department store retail groups report sales declined from 2018 to 2023

That's according to a recent report from Bain & Company that dives into consumer sentiment around department store shopping and explores a potential reset for the industry.

Retail investing by the numbers

When average Americans began pouring into the stock market, Wall Street wasn’t sure if its new guests were there to stay. But at the end of 2023, Public confidently declared that retail investors “weren’t going anywhere” after 30 million new individuals began buying and selling stock. Download the report to learn more here.

Read about the evolution of the S&P 500 and its recession recovery

Since the S&P 500 is considered a bellwether index (meaning it represents the health of the US economy), its value is important for investors in both bull and bear markets. The S&P 500 has been impacted by recessions and downturns, from the 1970s oil crisis to the dot-com crash of the early 2000s.

The hidden effects of March Madness

March Madness isn’t just a major sporting event—it’s also peak season for vasectomies. Urologists report a 50% increase during the tournament, as patients use recovery time as an excuse to watch nonstop basketball. Meanwhile, workplace distractions from bracket pools and game streaming are estimated to cost US businesses $17 billion.

COVID-19's shock to employment rates sparked some economists to fear deflation

COVID-19 simultaneously disrupted the supply chain and the labor market. Since the unemployment rate had hit record highs, some economists were worried that the supply chain would recover before the labor market. If that had happened, businesses would have been producing goods, but no one would have been able to buy them because they wouldn't have the disposable income to do so.

An updated, comprehensive tracker of global inflation

This tracker provides a visual narrative of inflation rates, central bank policies, consumer price breakouts, and more from nations across the globe.

Experts recommend preparing your finances accordingly if you're expecting to be laid off soon, taking actions such as looking into the cost of replacing employer-sponsored benefits like healthcare.

Scientists seeking gut insights are attaching flatulence sensors to volunteers' underwear

This fart-tracking device detects gas generated in the gut, providing insights about gut microbial activity. The underwear sensors measure a component of what is technically called flatus—digestive system gas.

One theory suggests real estate markets follow a predictable 18-year pattern

The theory dictates that real estate markets tend to experience about 14 years of growth, including a mid-cycle dip, then experience four years of decline. Real estate experts in London discuss the theory in an article.

Indicators of economic bubbles include euphoric narratives and extreme valuations.

View the countries with the most internet users, including 94% of those in high-income nations

As of 2025, the four most populous nations—China, India, the US, and Indonesia—are also the ones with the most internet users, collectively accounting for almost half of the 6.04 billion internet users worldwide. This suggests that population size, rather than adoption rate, is a better predictor of online activity.

Google Search trends reveal truths about society that traditional surveys miss

Studies of human behavior show that survey respondents may lie to present themselves more favorably. By studying anonymous search data, researchers have uncovered hidden racism, mental health struggles, and interest in taboo or stigmatized topics.

Housing 'starts'— new constructions—signal the health and future of real estate

The Federal Reserve Economic Data, or FRED, tracks monthly “housing starts,” the number of new residential construction projects being built. Some argue this data can serve as an economic barometer.

See a real-time list of the most shorted stocks in the US

Every two weeks, the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange release the stocks with the most short positions. Some of the companies with the highest short positions as of early 2026 were Hims & Hers and Groupon.

Privacy advocates warn menstrual cycle apps could put women at legal risk in certain states.

'Tulip mania,' the 1630s Dutch craze where rare bulbs were briefly traded like luxury assets, may have been the first financial bubble—and it still shapes markets today.

'Planet Money' debates the financial indicators that defined 2025

In this end-of-year episode, "Planet Money" stages a playful debate over which economic indicators best captured the chaos of 2025—from tariffs to AI bubbles—and which signals may matter most as the US economy heads into 2026.

Modern prediction markets—the platforms where people can trade bets that pay out depending on certain event outcomes—started in Iowa in 1988.

The lifecycle of a financial bubble often follows a predictable pattern

Economist Hyman Minsky originated what became a five-stage model of an economic bubble: a new “displacement,” a rapid boom, euphoric speculation, early profit-taking by insiders, and finally panic selling. From Japan’s 1980s real-estate surge to the 2008 crash, the pattern repeats across eras and assets.

The psychological aspect of deflation makes it difficult for policymakers to stabilize the economy

That psychological aspect is referred to as "the deflationary spiral." When prices start decreasing, people tend to hold on to their money to pay the lowest prices. But as prices start stabilizing, people resist increasing prices. (Some users may experience a paywall.)

Advent calendars have become a major seasonal driver for brands

Companies now treat Advent calendars as key holiday products, expanding production as demand surges across categories. Retail data shows beauty and self-care calendars consistently rank among the most popular, as some brands report selling out yearly, and retailers order months in advance.

A V-shaped recovery from a recession is the most common kind

When charted, recession recoveries resemble letters including V, U, W, L, and K. For instance, an L-shaped recovery involves a steep decline that slowly reverses.

Venture capitalists were once bullish on DTC brands

While a physical store can only hold so many objects, online retailers without the limits of four walls that could sell their products direct-to-consumer could theoretically be great investments. But they didn’t always provide investors with expected returns.

The Dow remains a shorthand for America’s economic health

For over a century, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been one of the most closely watched market barometers. Its rises and falls dominate headlines and politics, shaping how Americans perceive the strength of their economy.

Learn about what causes economic bubbles, including how forces like cheap credit, soaring optimism, and feedback loops push asset prices far beyond fundamentals—until a single shock triggers panic, selling, and a rapid collapse.

Roughly $5T of stimulus money flooded the economy during the pandemic

Recessions can last anywhere from months to years. To encourage economic growth, governments use policy levers such as lowering interest rates or introducing a stimulus. Economists credit massive stimulus funds for helping the economy quickly recover from a recession during the COVID-19 pandemic.

An estimated 91% of all Americans had used a coupon at least once as of 2022

Coupon use accelerated during the Great Depression, when the US unemployment rate reached nearly 25 percent. While coupons were invented in the late 1800s, they became more popular during the Depression as a way to stretch household budgets during the era’s economic hardships. Companies soon began distributing coupons via newspapers and women’s magazines.

Explore an interactive tool that reveals why Americans are unemployed—almost 30% of unemployed Americans ages 25 to 54 cited being laid off as the reason for their unemployment, for instance.

The dot-com boom sent tech stocks soaring before a historic collapse

A look at the dot-com bubble, when investors poured money into unproven internet startups, driving the Nasdaq to dizzying heights before it crashed by more than 80% after 2000, showing how new technologies can detach markets from reality.

Check the current Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index is a metric that attempts to capture price changes felt by consumers by averaging a basket of about 80,000 items, each weighted to reflect the impact of changes on households.

Beyond oil, the Iran war has pushed up costs on fertilizer, prescriptions, and mortgages.

The world's most famous case of deflation happened after Black Thursday

While the details are not fully agreed upon, many economists point to the Federal Reserve's tightening of the money supply as a prime culprit, leading to a significant deflationary spiral.

Prediction markets and sports betting are not forms of investing, despite how some fans portray them.