When consumers think an economic downturn is looming, the 'lipstick index' economic theory argues that sales of more affordable luxury items (such as lipstick) go up.

What is the lipstick index?

The lipstick index is an economic theory that breaks down to this: when consumers think an economic downturn is looming, sales for affordable luxury items (such as lipstick) go up. While it's not an economically proven theory, it's still worth considering. So why do consumers exhibit this behavior? Read more about the lipstick index to find out.

The men’s underwear index predicts recessions based on men’s underwear sales

Internet users have been using some nontraditional indicators to predict whether a recession is imminent, including the return of so-called “recession pop.”

Experts don't believe upbeat tunes, called 'recession pop,' are legitimate recession indicators

Social media users have begun deeming pop music by the likes of Kesha and Katy Perry a "recession indicator" as they try to predict the next economic downturn.

Why there's a snack recession

Inflation and economic uncertainty have driven many Americans to make cuts to their snack budgets, according to reports from major food manufacturers like General Mills, JM Smucker, and Campbell's. Major retailers have also observed lower-income consumers cutting back on nonessentials due to the macroeconomic environment.

The clearest sign of a recession is a steady increase in job losses and high unemployment.

So-called 'recession blondes and brunettes' skip hair appointments to save money

One hairstyle trend is seen as a recession indicator: people letting their hair grow darker roots instead of frequently splurging on expensive blonde highlights.

Many economists see Black Friday as a litmus test for consumer confidence

Some investors and analysts look at Black Friday’s sales numbers as a way to gauge the overall health of the retail industry—and consumer confidence at large. However, others don’t believe Black Friday results have a particularly significant impact on markets, arguing that the figures only cause short-term gains or losses.

There's no single definition of an economic recession, though recessions are commonly identified by two consecutive quarters of shrinking gross domestic product.

Experts recommend preparing your finances accordingly if you're expecting to be laid off soon, taking actions such as looking into the cost of replacing employer-sponsored benefits like healthcare.

Explore 'The Big Mac Index,' an economic indicator created by The Economist as a cheeky reference for the purchasing power of consumers across different countries.

One of LVMH's key business innovations was widening the luxury market's target audience

While certain items under the LVMH umbrella can cost thousands of dollars, like large Louis Vuitton bags, others, like coin purses or lipstick, cost significantly less. Some argue that these comparatively lower-priced items allows LVMH's target audience to be much larger in size than it would have been if it only targeted the world's wealthiest shoppers, whereas others argue that it makes the brand more vulnerable to economic downturns.

An inverted yield curve has preceded every recession that’s occurred in the last 50 years

Prolonged yield curve inversions can predict recessions, but even brief inversions can cause investors to react with knee-jerk reactions.

Indicators of economic bubbles include euphoric narratives and extreme valuations.

The 'Lindy effect' is a theory that says the longer things that don't physically wear out (like ideas, brands, or institutions) have been around, the more likely they are to exist for longer.

The Sahm rule attempts to predict recessions based on unemployment trends.

A recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP, but in practice, these economic phenomena are more complex.

Learn about what causes economic bubbles, including how forces like cheap credit, soaring optimism, and feedback loops push asset prices far beyond fundamentals—until a single shock triggers panic, selling, and a rapid collapse.

Economists define deflation as a sustained decline in prices across an economy

Deflationary periods are characterized by broad, significant price declines. The Federal Reserve can monitor deflation by tracking prices through price indexes, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which characterizes the average costs for consumers each month.

The psychological aspect of deflation makes it difficult for policymakers to stabilize the economy

That psychological aspect is referred to as "the deflationary spiral." When prices start decreasing, people tend to hold on to their money to pay the lowest prices. But as prices start stabilizing, people resist increasing prices. (Some users may experience a paywall.)

Falling demand and lower costs of production cause deflation

"Falling demand" refers to anything that changes someone's willingness to spend money on goods and services. Global recessions, fears of a worldwide recession, and a fall in the money supply are all factors that could lead to falling demand. Likewise, lower production costs allow companies to increase production, which can lead to a surplus in supply.

One signal that a recession has become a depression? When GDP declines more than 10%

There’s no single definition for recessions or depressions, but both are marked by sustained periods of declining economic activity. Depressions are more severe than recessions.

Read about the evolution of the S&P 500 and its recession recovery

Since the S&P 500 is considered a bellwether index (meaning it represents the health of the US economy), its value is important for investors in both bull and bear markets. The S&P 500 has been impacted by recessions and downturns, from the 1970s oil crisis to the dot-com crash of the early 2000s.

COVID-19's shock to employment rates sparked some economists to fear deflation

COVID-19 simultaneously disrupted the supply chain and the labor market. Since the unemployment rate had hit record highs, some economists were worried that the supply chain would recover before the labor market. If that had happened, businesses would have been producing goods, but no one would have been able to buy them because they wouldn't have the disposable income to do so.

Check the current Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index is a metric that attempts to capture price changes felt by consumers by averaging a basket of about 80,000 items, each weighted to reflect the impact of changes on households.

'Good deflation' happens when prices naturally track with supply, meaning prices change gradually

This tends to make products and services more affordable and normalizes the standard of living. Bad deflation usually happens when there are sudden changes to either supply or demand. Near-zero [interest rates helped create the real estate bubble that sparked the Great Recession when it crashed](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMo9mD8j7IA&t=91s) Because deflation distorts the value of money, deflation is particularly harmful for borrowers. Low interest rates made it easy for businesses and everyday people to take on enormous debt, which exacerbated the effects of the recession.

Roughly $5T of stimulus money flooded the economy during the pandemic

Recessions can last anywhere from months to years. To encourage economic growth, governments use policy levers such as lowering interest rates or introducing a stimulus. Economists credit massive stimulus funds for helping the economy quickly recover from a recession during the COVID-19 pandemic.

In 2007, Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, warned of an impending financial crisis.

The world's most famous case of deflation happened after Black Thursday

While the details are not fully agreed upon, many economists point to the Federal Reserve's tightening of the money supply as a prime culprit, leading to a significant deflationary spiral.

Recessions are considered to be inevitable by modern economic standards

Recessions are caused by imbalances in the market and are guaranteed to happen in capitalist systems, but predicting them is a complex task.

An economist answers questions about love

Economists aren't exactly known for their dating advice. But as it turns out, economics experts can offer fresh perspectives to everyday romantic quandaries. On this podcast episode, economist Tim Harford answers listeners’ relationship quandaries, from paying for a first date to alternatives to saying, "I love you." Listen to the episode here.

In a 'K-shaped' economy, higher earners' spending rises while lower earners' spending stagnates or decreases.

The 'dupe' economy is fueled by the youthful thrill of thrift

Historically, you don't want people to know you have a knock-off luxury item. But today's younger generations are embracing the "dupe" economy, an open celebration of luxury knock-off items where consumers are proud to pay less for something roughly equivalent to premium brand offerings.

The role stories play in mass economic trends like bitcoin, crashes

Economics is dominated by numbers, but stories play a huge role in the emotional shifts seen within macroeconomic trends. For example, bitcoin is not just a cost-benefit winner, but a compelling tale of decentralization and independence. This is a 20-minute summary of Nobel prize-winning economist Robert Shiller's "Narrative Economics."

Interest rates have historically been an indicator of the US economy's overall health.

A V-shaped recovery from a recession is the most common kind

When charted, recession recoveries resemble letters including V, U, W, L, and K. For instance, an L-shaped recovery involves a steep decline that slowly reverses.

'Tulip mania,' the 1630s Dutch craze where rare bulbs were briefly traded like luxury assets, may have been the first financial bubble—and it still shapes markets today.

Consumer spending accounts for 70% of America's gross domestic product.

Consumer spending accounts for 70% of US GDP, making Black Friday significant

Lizabeth Cohen, a history professor at Harvard and author of the book “A Consumer's Republic: The Politics Of Mass Consumption In Postwar America,” has argued that the US government has presented consumerism as a way out of economic crisis or decline since around World War II.

One theory suggests real estate markets follow a predictable 18-year pattern

The theory dictates that real estate markets tend to experience about 14 years of growth, including a mid-cycle dip, then experience four years of decline. Real estate experts in London discuss the theory in an article.

How the Great Depression still shapes the way Americans eat

From fortified foods to nutrition labels, the legacy of an early financial crisis lives on in kitchens across the United States. Ethnic foods with their (supposedly) hunger-triggering spices were vilified and considered “stimulants” along the lines of caffeine and so, in their stead came prune puddings, canned-meat stews, and dairy-heavy vegetable casseroles featuring America’s first fortified foods. Read more here.

Leonard Lauder, one of Estée's sons, invented the slant on a tube of lipstick

Leonard Lauder was known for being an innovator, both in business and in product. He's credited with creating the now-standard slant of a lipstick tube, slicing the top off a then-bullet-shaped lipstick to better fit women's lips. (Some users may experience a paywall.)

The economics of romance novels

Romance is the publishing industry's most popular genre, with over 44 million units sold in 2025 alone. This episode of "The Economics of Everyday Things" podcast explores how the once-maligned form became the most reliable kind of book in the industry.

The lifecycle of a financial bubble often follows a predictable pattern

Economist Hyman Minsky originated what became a five-stage model of an economic bubble: a new “displacement,” a rapid boom, euphoric speculation, early profit-taking by insiders, and finally panic selling. From Japan’s 1980s real-estate surge to the 2008 crash, the pattern repeats across eras and assets.

'Buying the dip' refers to purchasing stocks or ETFs after a price decline in anticipation of a rebound

Some investors see it as getting a discount before the market recovers and the temporary declines turn into gains.

In 2023, the US money supply fell at its fastest rate since the 1930s

The money supply tracks how much cash, as well as electronic funds like savings accounts, is circulating through the economy. And a downward turn can be a bad sign.

Estée Lauder used wealthy people's bathrooms to curate the color of the jars her products were sold in

While Lauder herself was just starting her cosmetics empire, she knew wealthy people who could afford high-quality products would always be her target market. In order to make her products as appealing to this market as possible, Lauder held up different colors of glass bottles in people's bathrooms to see what would look best with their decorations before landing on a turquoise bottle with a gold cap.

North American department store retail groups report sales declined from 2018 to 2023

That's according to a recent report from Bain & Company that dives into consumer sentiment around department store shopping and explores a potential reset for the industry.

Markets have always recovered and hit new highs following crashes

The crash that preceded the Great Depression was the most severe the US has ever experienced. It was 28 times worse than the downturn that followed the Cuban Missile Crisis.

The Federal Reserve fought the Great Recession primarily with quantitative easing and repurchasing agreements.

'Planet Money' debates the financial indicators that defined 2025

In this end-of-year episode, "Planet Money" stages a playful debate over which economic indicators best captured the chaos of 2025—from tariffs to AI bubbles—and which signals may matter most as the US economy heads into 2026.