Prediction market Kalshi's CEO Tarek Mansour ​​has said that prediction markets are similar to the stock market—except instead of buying and selling shares of companies, users buy and sell "yes" or "no" on whether an event is going to happen or not.

Prediction markets and sports betting are not forms of investing, despite how some fans portray them.

Kalshi is the first regulated prediction market in the US

Two migrant MIT students, Luana Lara Lopes and Tarek Mansour, shared an interest in hedging against uncertainty—from election outcomes to the Oscar awards. They fought hard for regulatory approval and their company now has a valuation in the billions. The platform has brought prediction markets into the mainstream.

Prediction markets—the platforms where users can trade bets that pay out depending on certain event outcomes—have faced questions about insider trading.

The 2024 US presidential election was a breakthrough moment for prediction markets

Founded in 2018 by MIT graduates, Kalshi won a federal appeals court ruling in October 2024 that allowed it to offer election contracts in the US. When prediction markets predicted President Donald Trump's win (more accurately than most polls), prediction markets were thrust into the public eye.

Prediction markets convinced regulators they're not gambling, but exchanging commodity futures contracts

Kalshi built a legal case that argues its yes/no bets on real-world events are futures contracts, and the relevant regulator—the Commodity Futures Trading Commission—agreed in 2020. Many states are now suing major prediction markets, arguing this legal case is faulty and obscures the true substance of the business: gambling.

Kalshi announced a partnership with CNN in 2025

The partnership included an integration of Kalshi's prediction markets data across CNN's network programming. For instance, certain TV segments on CNN could show a scrolling banner detailing the odds of event contracts on the exchange.

The CEOs of the two top prediction markets have a fierce rivalry

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan are both billionaire CEOs of the top two prediction markets—but they don't exactly get along. For instance, Mansour reportedly does not say the word "Polymarket" out loud, referring to it as the "non-American, unregulated platform."

How prediction markets differ from sportsbooks matters for regulation

There are a number of differences and similarities between sportsbooks and prediction markets, despite both allowing people to bet on outcomes for sports-related events. For instance, prediction markets typically earn revenue through transaction fees rather than taking directional exposure to outcomes.

Modern prediction markets—the platforms where people can trade bets that pay out depending on certain event outcomes—started in Iowa in 1988.

The prices on prediction markets reflect how the collective forecasts future outcomes.

Use a prediction market profit or loss calculator

In order to calculate how much someone would make from a specific trade on a prediction market, this calculator asks for the purchase price of a given "yes" or "no" prediction, the number of contracts the trader plans to purchase, and more.

Contract prices on prediction markets are generally interpreted as implied probabilities

For example, if a contract trading is at $0.65, that could be read as the market assigning a 65% probability to that event occurring. The most common format for prediction markets is winner-take-all: The contract settles at $1 if the event occurs, or $0 if it doesn't.

Prediction markets help people bet on almost anything—which can be controversial

Critics point to incidents such as traders placing bets on the Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's capture and the two people in Israel who were charged on suspicion of using classified information to place bets about military actions.

Donald Trump's Truth Social social media platform is launching a prediction market

Named "Truth Predict," the cryptocurrency-based prediction market will allow users of the Truth Social social media platform to place crypto bets on the outcome of certain events (think: sports games, the economy, and political races). Truth Social is primarily owned by President Donald Trump and his family.

Some experts equate prediction markets to the new crack cocaine of gambling addiction

An addiction psychiatrist at UCLA says betting apps are far more potent than traditional gambling, citing a 19-year-old patient who lost $180,000 and hadn't left campus in a year, cycling through sports bets, crypto, meme stocks, and prediction markets on his phone. This interview explores the extreme edge of the nascent industry.

The idea that the median estimate of a group can be more accurate than individual expert estimates is called the 'wisdom of the crowd,' and dates back to the early 1900s.

Experts suggest the industry could be a $45B business

Sports betting used to primarily consist of who would win and the points spread, but the rise of online betting apps has fueled a substantial increase in parlay bets. "Existing markets are still growing at a rapid clip," said Noah Naparst, who evaluates sports-betting companies for Goldman Sachs. "So we’re not mature yet, but we’re not in the early wildcat days of the market anymore, either.”

Prediction market Polymarket's CEO dropped out of New York University

Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan started building Polymarket when he was 21. Polymarket has been backed by billionaire investors such as Peter Thiel and Vitalik Buterin.

Play a game that reveals if investors with a crystal ball make better trades

The "crystal ball" game reveals how well you would do trading stocks and bonds if you could see the front page of the Wall Street Journal one day in advance.

Vitalik Buterin’s current thoughts on Ethereum

Vitalik Buterin isn’t just the founder of Ethereum—he’s also a blogger. In this blog post from late last year, Buterin discusses some of his favorite applications built on Ethereum: prediction markets like Polymarket, where users can bet crypto on the outcome of events like elections. Buterin argues that prediction markets also act as news sites for non-bettors, opening the floodgates for many different kinds of info-based apps on Ethereum. Read the post here.

'The stock market' can be loosely defined as a set of exchanges and other places where shares of public companies are bought and sold.

Prediction markets have their own lingo that's an amalgamation of Gen Z and Gen Alpha slang

For instance, if you've been out-maneuvered by another trader, you've been "mogged." A "rulescuck" is someone who is a stickler for betting market rules and may try to win on a technicality.

Some experts and investors think short selling—a strategy in which investors bet that a stock will drop in value—helps keep the market healthy.

Americans spent nearly $150B in sports-related bets in 2024

These bets ranged from who would win the World Series to what color clothes famous celebrities would wear to the Super Bowl. Experts believe the industry will continue to grow.

Insider trading is the practice of trading a company's securities based on material, nonpublic information.

Shorting is a high-risk and expensive investment strategy that hedge funds specialize in

Most investors buy stocks with the expectation that those stocks will be worth more tomorrow than they are today. Short selling, known as “shorting,” a stock is the opposite: The investor is betting the stock will drop in value.

Sports betting, explained

Since a 2018 Supreme Court decision overturned the Bradley Act, which spurred a state-by-state legalization of online gambling, sports betting has become a rapidly growing multibillion-dollar industry.

'Daily fantasy' is a high-stakes subset of fantasy sports

The form, pioneered by platforms like FanDuel and DraftKings, uses anonymous daily leagues and large payouts, looks more like typical betting than the season-long, community-minded setup of more traditional fantasy.

Listen to Palantir CEO Alex Karp's outlook for how AI will change the economy.

Bluesky is gaining momentum by offering users full control over their experience

Controversial changes made by Elon Musk to X have inspired an exodus from that platform and growth in Bluesky. The latter's open-source model gives users customizable feeds, portability between services, and a "billionaire-proof" design that prevents corporate takeover.

Meme stocks often have little underlying value but are fueled by crowd funding

"Meme stocks" is a phrase originating in the early 2020s, referring to companies with little underlying value who gain recognition through social media and whose stock price experiences rapid gains.

Hear what Michael Burry thinks about the possibility of an AI bubble

Since his success shorting subprime mortgage-backed securities in 2008, Burry's positions have often become influential, sparking conversations on platforms like X. In 2025, Burry drew attention for betting against Nvidia and Palantir for being overvalued companies.

Decoding sports-betting language

The world of sports gambling is filled with insider lingo: What's a "spread"? How about a "moneyline" or a "parlay"? This resource breaks down the jargon, helping you navigate the industry or, at least, giving you the keys to talk about it.

What are smart contracts?

Smart contracts are potentially one of the most useful tools associated with blockchain, and they can enable the transfer of everything from Bitcoin and fiat currency to goods transported around the world. Here’s what they do and why they’re likely to gain traction.

The stock market, explained in 3 minutes

The stock market consists of a set of exchanges and other venues where shares of public companies are bought and sold. The Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange are two of the most well-known exchanges in the US, while major exchanges also operate around the world, including in Tokyo, Shanghai, London, and São Paulo.

Tesla short sellers benefited from the company's poor performance in 2025

Tesla was widely considered the most-shorted stock until 2024, despite consistent short-seller losses. Between 2016 and 2020, short sellers reportedly lost more than $11B as Tesla's stock price continued climbing. However, long-held short positions began paying out in 2025 as Musk's foray into politics and his eventual feud with President Trump hurt Tesla's stock performance. In 2025, Tesla short sellers made more than $10B.

What’s up with the new Texas Stock Exchange?

The two biggest stock exchanges in the U.S. are both based in New York—the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq. But a potential new “Texas Stock Exchange”—which would be based in, you guessed it, Texas—could change that. To find out more about the project, backed by enormous companies such as BlackRock and Citadel, watch this video.

While day trading has risen in popularity in recent years, the SEC warns it is a speculative strategy that can cause big losses

A day trader is anyone who buys and sells a stock within the same trading day. They quickly move in and out of the market to try and profit. Some day traders are professionals, while others are retail investors.

Why does the stock market matter?

Open any newspaper, turn on your local TV news station, or listen to a daily business radio segment, and you’re bound to hear about how the stock market is performing. Netflix created a 17-minute (free) explainer that dives deep into the nitty-gritty of how we got here.

The stablecoin market increased tenfold from 2020 to 2025

Specifically, the stablecoin market grew from about $28B in 2020 to $282B in 2025. Some experts forecast that it could grow anywhere from 6.7x to 14.2x by 2030.

Billionaires are racing to space to control future markets

Although different companies have described focuses ranging from luxury tourism to Martian space colonies, all are building infrastructure to capitalize on the shift away from government-only control and betting big on reusability and scale. By securing public contracts and subsidies, they aim to develop strategic partnerships toward dominance in low Earth orbit.

Fantasy sports have turned fans into 'second screen' consumers

The rise of smartphones made fantasy sports more accessible and contributed to a phenomenon called “second screen consumption,” where sports fans are not only watching a live broadcast but are simultaneously watching the statistics from that game play out in their fantasy matchup.

Read about why bans on short selling are a controversial policy

Generally, short selling is legal, but regulations often restrict short positions when a stock has experienced a sharp price decline (more than 10% in one day). However, negative feedback loops in times of financial crisis have given short selling a bad reputation. The government has temporarily banned short selling during previous market downturns—like The Great Recession of 2008 and the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic—but experts argue whether those bans actually improved market stability or just distorted prices.

Sports media have also embraced sports betting

For decades, ESPN kept its distance between reporting on games and talking about gambling lines. Sports teams refused to have franchises in Las Vegas, fearing it would harm the sport. But since 2018, that has changed. ESPN’s personalities regularly pick games, and the company has also launched its own betting app.

The 16th-century astrologer Nostradamus' predictions for 2024

Nostradamus has been credited with predicting several major historical events over the years, but what does he think is in store for 2024? Read up on what his mysterious 1555 book, The Propheties, hints at for the upcoming year.

Use this day trading simulator to practice buying and selling stocks while leveraging real-time data and trading charts

Want to try day trading but don't want to risk losing cash? This simulator gives users access to "unlimited" fake money, as well as the option to convert their simulation accounts to the real deal later on.

Legal gambling on Super Bowl 60 is expected to reach $1.76B

Legal Super Bowl wagering has grown sharply over the past decade as US states legalized sports betting. In 2018, sports betting was only legal in Nevada and accounted for $158.5M.

Read about the day Palantir went public in 2020

After more than 15 years in business, Palantir held its initial public offering (IPO) via a direct listing—meaning the company didn't rely on underwriters to assess the initial trading price or stock value. Palantir's stock ended the day trading 31% higher than the reference price.

The alternative investments industry is expected to grow significantly in the coming years

More specifically, as of 2024, the alternative investments industry was expected to grow to more than $24T in assets in 2028—up from roughly $15T in 2022.

FTX, one of the world's largest crypto exchanges, collapsed in 2022

As crypto markets declined during the post-pandemic slowdown, Sam Bankman-Fried propped up the markets with billions he'd earned leading FTX, one of the largest crypto exchanges. Then, in one of the most rapid financial implosions in modern history, the exchange collapsed as investors rushed to withdraw money.