Use a prediction market profit or loss calculator

Contract prices on prediction markets are generally interpreted as implied probabilities

For example, if a contract trading is at $0.65, that could be read as the market assigning a 65% probability to that event occurring. The most common format for prediction markets is winner-take-all: The contract settles at $1 if the event occurs, or $0 if it doesn't.

The prices on prediction markets reflect how the collective forecasts future outcomes.

Prediction market Kalshi's CEO Tarek Mansour ​​has said that prediction markets are similar to the stock market—except instead of buying and selling shares of companies, users buy and sell "yes" or "no" on whether an event is going to happen or not.

Prediction markets and sports betting are not forms of investing, despite how some fans portray them.

Prediction markets—the platforms where users can trade bets that pay out depending on certain event outcomes—have faced questions about insider trading.

How prediction markets differ from sportsbooks matters for regulation

There are a number of differences and similarities between sportsbooks and prediction markets, despite both allowing people to bet on outcomes for sports-related events. For instance, prediction markets typically earn revenue through transaction fees rather than taking directional exposure to outcomes.

Prediction markets convinced regulators they're not gambling, but exchanging commodity futures contracts

Kalshi built a legal case that argues its yes/no bets on real-world events are futures contracts, and the relevant regulator—the Commodity Futures Trading Commission—agreed in 2020. Many states are now suing major prediction markets, arguing this legal case is faulty and obscures the true substance of the business: gambling.

Modern prediction markets—the platforms where people can trade bets that pay out depending on certain event outcomes—started in Iowa in 1988.

Prediction markets help people bet on almost anything—which can be controversial

Critics point to incidents such as traders placing bets on the Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's capture and the two people in Israel who were charged on suspicion of using classified information to place bets about military actions.

The 2024 US presidential election was a breakthrough moment for prediction markets

Founded in 2018 by MIT graduates, Kalshi won a federal appeals court ruling in October 2024 that allowed it to offer election contracts in the US. When prediction markets predicted President Donald Trump's win (more accurately than most polls), prediction markets were thrust into the public eye.

Donald Trump's Truth Social social media platform is launching a prediction market

Named "Truth Predict," the cryptocurrency-based prediction market will allow users of the Truth Social social media platform to place crypto bets on the outcome of certain events (think: sports games, the economy, and political races). Truth Social is primarily owned by President Donald Trump and his family.

The idea that the median estimate of a group can be more accurate than individual expert estimates is called the 'wisdom of the crowd,' and dates back to the early 1900s.

Play a game that reveals if investors with a crystal ball make better trades

The "crystal ball" game reveals how well you would do trading stocks and bonds if you could see the front page of the Wall Street Journal one day in advance.

Calculate creator economy platform costs

The creator economy continues to be an attractive way to earn money for many people. While many platforms exist to help creators monetize their work, each has different feature sets and pricing models. This calculator helps workers decide which platform works best for them.

A ‘rent vs. buy’ financial calculator

The New York Times built a continuously updated financial calculator to help potential homebuyers figure out which makes more sense given their individual situation: buying or renting a home. It takes into account how long someone plans to own the home for, mortgage rates, and more.

Some experts equate prediction markets to the new crack cocaine of gambling addiction

An addiction psychiatrist at UCLA says betting apps are far more potent than traditional gambling, citing a 19-year-old patient who lost $180,000 and hadn't left campus in a year, cycling through sports bets, crypto, meme stocks, and prediction markets on his phone. This interview explores the extreme edge of the nascent industry.

How much money you'd have now if you bought bitcoin years ago

Do you ever wonder how much money you'd have now if you bought bitcoin in 2019? 2018? 2017? This calculator provides the answer. Plug in the amount of bitcoin you would have purchased, plus the year and the currency.

Use this annuity income calculator to estimate how much money someone can expect in their annuity payouts, depending on factors such as how much they invest and how long they expect to be paid.

Use this day trading simulator to practice buying and selling stocks while leveraging real-time data and trading charts

Want to try day trading but don't want to risk losing cash? This simulator gives users access to "unlimited" fake money, as well as the option to convert their simulation accounts to the real deal later on.

Prediction markets have their own lingo that's an amalgamation of Gen Z and Gen Alpha slang

For instance, if you've been out-maneuvered by another trader, you've been "mogged." A "rulescuck" is someone who is a stickler for betting market rules and may try to win on a technicality.

Kalshi is the first regulated prediction market in the US

Two migrant MIT students, Luana Lara Lopes and Tarek Mansour, shared an interest in hedging against uncertainty—from election outcomes to the Oscar awards. They fought hard for regulatory approval and their company now has a valuation in the billions. The platform has brought prediction markets into the mainstream.

Calculate your capital gains tax bill

If mental math is not your forte, a handy tool can help you figure out what you owe at tax time. Find the purchase and sales price of an asset, your taxable income, your tax filing status, and the length of time you held said asset, and you'll get your total for Uncle Sam.

Decoding sports-betting language

The world of sports gambling is filled with insider lingo: What's a "spread"? How about a "moneyline" or a "parlay"? This resource breaks down the jargon, helping you navigate the industry or, at least, giving you the keys to talk about it.

The CEOs of the two top prediction markets have a fierce rivalry

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan are both billionaire CEOs of the top two prediction markets—but they don't exactly get along. For instance, Mansour reportedly does not say the word "Polymarket" out loud, referring to it as the "non-American, unregulated platform."

Shorting is a high-risk and expensive investment strategy that hedge funds specialize in

Most investors buy stocks with the expectation that those stocks will be worth more tomorrow than they are today. Short selling, known as “shorting,” a stock is the opposite: The investor is betting the stock will drop in value.

A 'position' in financial markets refers to the amount of a security or asset that an investor owns or sells short

A "long" position gains from an increase in a security's price, whereas a "short" position profits from a price drop. This article includes a detailed explanation of the term "position" as it relates to investing and financial markets.

A margin call is a way for traders to pay off debts by selling a security before they may be ready to do so.

Experts suggest the industry could be a $45B business

Sports betting used to primarily consist of who would win and the points spread, but the rise of online betting apps has fueled a substantial increase in parlay bets. "Existing markets are still growing at a rapid clip," said Noah Naparst, who evaluates sports-betting companies for Goldman Sachs. "So we’re not mature yet, but we’re not in the early wildcat days of the market anymore, either.”

Breaking down the jargon and strategy of horse betting

Placing bets on horse racing isn't the same as a football or basketball game. You can pick a winner (win), who will come in second (place), and even third (show). And all the bets placed on a race are pooled together and divided among the winners. This Top Ten Picks video teaches the mechanics behind each bet, and shares insider tips that can lead to more informed betting choices.

While day trading has risen in popularity in recent years, the SEC warns it is a speculative strategy that can cause big losses

A day trader is anyone who buys and sells a stock within the same trading day. They quickly move in and out of the market to try and profit. Some day traders are professionals, while others are retail investors.

Investors need a 'margin account' to short sell stock

Margin accounts are leveraged accounts through brokerage firms that allow investors to make trades without the full amount of capital on hand. Similar to a secured loan, margin accounts often require some form of collateral and typically have a cap on how much investors can borrow. However, trading with a margin account is much riskier than a traditional investment account. Fees and charged interest are due on margin accounts, regardless of trade performance, meaning it's possible for investors to lose more money than just their initial investment.

'The stock market' can be loosely defined as a set of exchanges and other places where shares of public companies are bought and sold.

How to put on a hedge

These days, hedging your portfolio isn’t just for hedge fund managers. An explainer from Robinhood delves into what a hedged position actually is, why traders put on hedges, and how you, too, can work to guard your holdings against a market downturn. The idea is to derive gains from your portfolio when markets are trending up, down, or sideways.

How math whizzes exploit sportsbooks

Chris Dirkus is a professional sports bettor who approaches the hobby as a math problem, not from a fan's perspective. He focuses on mispriced odds in popular games where many fans are betting for high liquidity. He's one of a rare segment of sports bettors exploiting slow models and human mistakes.

The CME FedWatch Tool predicts the likelihood of future rate changes

It's based on federal fund futures contract prices. At a Fed meeting in July 2024, for instance, Chair Jerome Powell once again decided not to lower rates, though he said cuts could be on the table in September.

It's tough to measure just how much the global commodities market is worth

That's partly because of all the different ways and places commodities are traded—such as futures exchanges, spot markets, and over-the-counter deals. Additionally, the same commodity can be traded multiple times in different markets, making it easy to risk duplicating trade values in calculations.

Futures contracts—which are agreements to buy or sell a standardized asset at a specific future time—are the primary way commodities are bought and sold.

Calculate the financial outlook for your retirement

This simple calculator takes your age, income, planned contributions, and expected retirement needs into account to give you a portrait of how your financial condition will look when it comes time to start withdrawals.

Commodity traders are most commonly 'hedgers' or 'speculators'

While hedgers often produce and consume physical commodities (like corn, copper, or natural gas) and use the markets to manage the price risk for those commodities, speculators provide liquidity by betting on commodity price changes.

An MBA return on investment calculator

On average, the total investment for an MBA degree is more than $200K, which includes tuition, living expenses, lost income, and potential interest on student loans. This calculator can help you figure out your own future MBA degree’s estimated ROI based on your unique situation.

Some experts and investors think short selling—a strategy in which investors bet that a stock will drop in value—helps keep the market healthy.

A cost basis is an asset's purchase price after accounting for certain other factors

If you bought a share for $5 and sold it for $140, your capital gain would be $135...on paper, at least. In reality, the math is fuzzier. Capital gains are actually the difference between the sale price of the asset and your cost basis.

How to answer questions about salary expectations in an interview

"What are your salary expectations?" is among the toughest questions to answer in a job interview. According to experts, if you go too low you might cost yourself money in the long run, but if you go too high, you could price yourself out of a job. This video offers tips on how to answer this question based on your situation. Watch it here.

Visualize stock market's volatility between 2017 and 2025.

Kalshi announced a partnership with CNN in 2025

The partnership included an integration of Kalshi's prediction markets data across CNN's network programming. For instance, certain TV segments on CNN could show a scrolling banner detailing the odds of event contracts on the exchange.

Insider trading is the practice of trading a company's securities based on material, nonpublic information.

Stock options give investors the right to buy or sell a stock at an agreed-upon price and date

There are two types of options: calls, which are bets that a stock will rise (or not rise past a certain point), and puts, bets that a stock will fall (or not fall past a specific level). While stock options give investors the right to do these trades, they do not obligate buyers to follow through with them—sellers, on the other hand, must perform the option if it is exercised

Call options 101

A call option is a contract that gives the option buyer the right to buy an underlying asset at a specified price within a specific time period. A call buyer profits when the underlying asset increases in price. Learn more about the financial contract and how you can use it in this article.

Calculate your chance of success for IVF treatments

The efficacy of in vitro fertilization procedures varies widely based on age, health history, genetics, and more. This CDC calculator provides an estimate of success rates based on your personal information, relying on thousands of reported outcomes across the US.

Futures contracts are agreements to buy or sell a standardized asset at a specific future time

When it comes to commodity trading, these legally binding agreements tend to operate on a monthly basis. Futures contracts are typically traded on futures exchanges, like those operated by CME Group and the Intercontinental Exchange.