The CEOs of the two top prediction markets have a fierce rivalry

Prediction market Kalshi's CEO Tarek Mansour ​​has said that prediction markets are similar to the stock market—except instead of buying and selling shares of companies, users buy and sell "yes" or "no" on whether an event is going to happen or not.

Prediction market Polymarket's CEO dropped out of New York University

Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan started building Polymarket when he was 21. Polymarket has been backed by billionaire investors such as Peter Thiel and Vitalik Buterin.

Kalshi is the first regulated prediction market in the US

Two migrant MIT students, Luana Lara Lopes and Tarek Mansour, shared an interest in hedging against uncertainty—from election outcomes to the Oscar awards. They fought hard for regulatory approval and their company now has a valuation in the billions. The platform has brought prediction markets into the mainstream.

Prediction markets—the platforms where users can trade bets that pay out depending on certain event outcomes—have faced questions about insider trading.

Prediction markets and sports betting are not forms of investing, despite how some fans portray them.

Prediction markets convinced regulators they're not gambling, but exchanging commodity futures contracts

Kalshi built a legal case that argues its yes/no bets on real-world events are futures contracts, and the relevant regulator—the Commodity Futures Trading Commission—agreed in 2020. Many states are now suing major prediction markets, arguing this legal case is faulty and obscures the true substance of the business: gambling.

The FBI once raided Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan's home

In 2024, after Polymarket markets favored what turned out to be the winning outcome of the US presidential election, agents raided Coplan's New York City apartment. Coplan, who was only 26 years old at the time, was home during the raid and turned over his devices to authorities.

The 2024 US presidential election was a breakthrough moment for prediction markets

Founded in 2018 by MIT graduates, Kalshi won a federal appeals court ruling in October 2024 that allowed it to offer election contracts in the US. When prediction markets predicted President Donald Trump's win (more accurately than most polls), prediction markets were thrust into the public eye.

How prediction markets differ from sportsbooks matters for regulation

There are a number of differences and similarities between sportsbooks and prediction markets, despite both allowing people to bet on outcomes for sports-related events. For instance, prediction markets typically earn revenue through transaction fees rather than taking directional exposure to outcomes.

Kalshi announced a partnership with CNN in 2025

The partnership included an integration of Kalshi's prediction markets data across CNN's network programming. For instance, certain TV segments on CNN could show a scrolling banner detailing the odds of event contracts on the exchange.

Prediction markets have their own lingo that's an amalgamation of Gen Z and Gen Alpha slang

For instance, if you've been out-maneuvered by another trader, you've been "mogged." A "rulescuck" is someone who is a stickler for betting market rules and may try to win on a technicality.

Prediction markets help people bet on almost anything—which can be controversial

Critics point to incidents such as traders placing bets on the Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's capture and the two people in Israel who were charged on suspicion of using classified information to place bets about military actions.

Legendary venture capitalist Peter Thiel once wrote that 'competition is for losers'

With Peter Thiel's "Monopoly Theory," the Founders Fund partner argued that investing in companies that create new categories, rather than those that compete with other businesses in existing ones, is a best practice in venture capital.

Dissecting the legend of Sam Bankman-Fried

Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder and former CEO of FTX, a cryptocurrency exchange, rose to fame as a crypto visionary and was hailed as a genius. But he had a quick downfall in late 2022 when reports surfaced, implicating him in massive fraud.

Donald Trump's Truth Social social media platform is launching a prediction market

Named "Truth Predict," the cryptocurrency-based prediction market will allow users of the Truth Social social media platform to place crypto bets on the outcome of certain events (think: sports games, the economy, and political races). Truth Social is primarily owned by President Donald Trump and his family.

Some experts equate prediction markets to the new crack cocaine of gambling addiction

An addiction psychiatrist at UCLA says betting apps are far more potent than traditional gambling, citing a 19-year-old patient who lost $180,000 and hadn't left campus in a year, cycling through sports bets, crypto, meme stocks, and prediction markets on his phone. This interview explores the extreme edge of the nascent industry.

The prices on prediction markets reflect how the collective forecasts future outcomes.

Watch a rare early interview with Palantir CEO Alex Karp

Prior to Palantir's public listing in 2020, CEO Alex Karp did not give many interviews. In a rare interview from 2009, Karp discussed the dominance of American technology, his academic background, and the founding idea of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs as key players in aiding the fight against terrorism.

Listen to tech company Palantir's CEO Alex Karp discuss the threat of a surveillance state.

Listen to a conversation between two Palantir cofounders—Peter Thiel and Joe Lonsdale

Palantir cofounder Joe Lonsdale was an editor of the Stanford Review (which Peter Thiel founded), and Thiel became a mentor to Lonsdale. The two discussed shared sentiments about the importance of developing Palantir to maintain a largely American global order, as well as cultural revolutions.

Modern prediction markets—the platforms where people can trade bets that pay out depending on certain event outcomes—started in Iowa in 1988.

The idea that the median estimate of a group can be more accurate than individual expert estimates is called the 'wisdom of the crowd,' and dates back to the early 1900s.

Contract prices on prediction markets are generally interpreted as implied probabilities

For example, if a contract trading is at $0.65, that could be read as the market assigning a 65% probability to that event occurring. The most common format for prediction markets is winner-take-all: The contract settles at $1 if the event occurs, or $0 if it doesn't.

Bluesky is gaining momentum by offering users full control over their experience

Controversial changes made by Elon Musk to X have inspired an exodus from that platform and growth in Bluesky. The latter's open-source model gives users customizable feeds, portability between services, and a "billionaire-proof" design that prevents corporate takeover.

Vitalik Buterin’s current thoughts on Ethereum

Vitalik Buterin isn’t just the founder of Ethereum—he’s also a blogger. In this blog post from late last year, Buterin discusses some of his favorite applications built on Ethereum: prediction markets like Polymarket, where users can bet crypto on the outcome of events like elections. Buterin argues that prediction markets also act as news sites for non-bettors, opening the floodgates for many different kinds of info-based apps on Ethereum. Read the post here.

A video compares two visions for the metaverse: one from Nvidia and one from Facebook

The CEOs of top technology companies Nvidia and Meta recently revealed their visions for the metaverse of the future. As of 2021, both Jensen Huang and Mark Zuckerberg were bullish on virtual world-building, although Huang seemed more focused on the metaverse's business implications than its social ones, which Zuckerberg prioritized.

3 out of Palantir's 5 cofounders once served as editor-in-chief of The Stanford Review

After Peter Thiel founded the conservative student newspaper, he remained involved and invested in the paper's success. Other Palantir cofounders, Joe Lonsdale and Stephen Cohen, also both previously served as the paper's editor-in-chief.

Watch the infamous live feud between Bill Ackman and Carl Icahn from 2013 in the fallout of a billion-dollar accusation that Herbalife was a pyramid scheme.

Learn about Palantir CEO Alex Karp's background—including his history of social activism

Palantir has been criticized for its close proximity to conservative politics, including the company's partnership with ICE, cofounder Peter Thiel's long track record of large donations to Donald Trump's campaigns, and the company's support for Israel. But its leader, Alex Karp, is a self-proclaimed progressive with a PhD in social theory. For many, Karp's background and leadership are a paradox for Palantir.

Spellcaster: the rise and fall of Sam Bankman-Fried

The rapid collapse of FTX, one of the world's largest cryptocurrency exchanges, in late 2022 shocked the world. At the center of the fiasco was Sam Bankman-Fried, a 29-year-old wunderkind who had entranced politicians, journalists, financiers, and others with his melding of altruism and digital currency. The sordid details revealed as the empire fell captured public attention—venture into the death spiral with this in-depth podcast from Bloomberg.

FTX, one of the world's largest crypto exchanges, collapsed in 2022

As crypto markets declined during the post-pandemic slowdown, Sam Bankman-Fried propped up the markets with billions he'd earned leading FTX, one of the largest crypto exchanges. Then, in one of the most rapid financial implosions in modern history, the exchange collapsed as investors rushed to withdraw money.

Read Palantir CEO Alex Karp's most recent shareholder letter

Alex Karp's latest shareholder letter details both the company's outlook and recent performance, but also provides insight into what leadership finds important more generally. In this letter, Karp addresses Palantir critics and external concerns about the use of Palantir's technology for government surveillance.

Billionaires are racing to space to control future markets

Although different companies have described focuses ranging from luxury tourism to Martian space colonies, all are building infrastructure to capitalize on the shift away from government-only control and betting big on reusability and scale. By securing public contracts and subsidies, they aim to develop strategic partnerships toward dominance in low Earth orbit.

Listen to why Ray Dalio seeks out disagreement

One of Ray Dalio's principles is to constantly be challenged by smart people. He says thoughtful disagreement is key to becoming smarter and making better, more thorough decisions.

The dot-com stock bubble taught Howard Marks about markets

Annual investment letters from Howard Marks, the billionaire cofounder of top distressed debt shop Oaktree Capital Management, are required reading on Wall Street. The prolific writer and investor explains the distinction between the folly of trying to time the market and the necessity of paying attention to market cycles. The difference makes all the difference in returns.

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos emphasizes worrying about customers rather than competition

In a 1999 shareholder letter, Bezos wrote, "I constantly remind our employees to be afraid, to wake up every morning terrified. Our customers have made our business what it is, and we consider them to be loyal to us – right up until the second that someone else offers them a better service." Motivated by fear, the entrepreneur advocates consistent innovation, experimentation, and improvement to create a better customer experience.

Listen to Palantir CEO Alex Karp's outlook for how AI will change the economy.

Market concentration and high markups don't always signal a monopoly

When regulators and economists evaluate whether a company constitutes an illegal monopoly, they often consider its overall market share or its relatively high price markups. This piece argues that the Olley-Pakes decomposition is a better measure, identifying whether customers within a market are switching to more productive companies.

Play a game that reveals if investors with a crystal ball make better trades

The "crystal ball" game reveals how well you would do trading stocks and bonds if you could see the front page of the Wall Street Journal one day in advance.

Ray Dalio has argued that American capitalism is broken, citing economic factors like a growing wealth divide

Dalio also points to stalling income growth, weak healthcare systems, and poor educational outcomes when arguing that American capitalism needs serious reform. However, critics point out that Dalio has amassed a large fortune by running the world's largest hedge fund and question whether Dalio really wants economic reform.

Use a prediction market profit or loss calculator

In order to calculate how much someone would make from a specific trade on a prediction market, this calculator asks for the purchase price of a given "yes" or "no" prediction, the number of contracts the trader plans to purchase, and more.

Hear what Michael Burry thinks about the possibility of an AI bubble

Since his success shorting subprime mortgage-backed securities in 2008, Burry's positions have often become influential, sparking conversations on platforms like X. In 2025, Burry drew attention for betting against Nvidia and Palantir for being overvalued companies.

Expert predictions on the metaverse

Experts are split about the likely evolution of a truly immersive metaverse. Many worry current online problems may be magnified if Web3 development is led by those who built today’s dominant web platforms.

A look at the biography of Sam Bankman-Fried by author Michael Lewis

Michael Lewis released a book, "Going Infinite," on the day the subject of the book began his high-profile fraud trial. The book delves into the life of Sam Bankman-Fried, a young billionaire in the cryptocurrency world. Find out what the bestselling author discovered over two years and 100 interviews with Bankman-Fried.

Read the Forbes 30 Under 30 Hall of Shame, a list of dubious people Forbes honored before their wrongdoings were revealed.

Silicon Valley’s reign over tech, money, and politics

Tesla and X CEO Elon Musk, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman, and others are getting into politics. From Musk’s role in President Trump’s second term to Hoffman’s spending on former Vice President Harris’ presidential campaign, more tech CEOs are expanding into politics. This podcast episode by WBUR and American Public Media discusses what the impact could be with so many tech figures engaging in American politics. Listen here.

'The stock market' can be loosely defined as a set of exchanges and other places where shares of public companies are bought and sold.

The world's 50 most valuable private companies

While public companies typically have the highest valuations, private companies get close. This list breaks down the top 50 as of 2025, with SpaceX at the top with a value of $350B, followed by ByteDance. Over three-fifths of the list are located in the US, with eight in China.

Listen to a former Palantir employee's take on the company

Among other former Palantir employees who have spoken out against the company's role in aiding surveillance and in the American government, former content strategist Juan Sebastían Pinto is concerned that Palantir is creating a monopoly over artificial intelligence.

In 2012, Bill Ackman's hedge fund, Pershing Square, took a $1B short position against supplement company Herbalife after discovering that 82% of the company's distributors never made a profit, calling it a true pyramid scheme.