Contract prices on prediction markets are generally interpreted as implied probabilities

The prices on prediction markets reflect how the collective forecasts future outcomes.

Use a prediction market profit or loss calculator

In order to calculate how much someone would make from a specific trade on a prediction market, this calculator asks for the purchase price of a given "yes" or "no" prediction, the number of contracts the trader plans to purchase, and more.

Prediction markets and sports betting are not forms of investing, despite how some fans portray them.

Prediction market Kalshi's CEO Tarek Mansour ​​has said that prediction markets are similar to the stock market—except instead of buying and selling shares of companies, users buy and sell "yes" or "no" on whether an event is going to happen or not.

Prediction markets—the platforms where users can trade bets that pay out depending on certain event outcomes—have faced questions about insider trading.

Prediction markets convinced regulators they're not gambling, but exchanging commodity futures contracts

Kalshi built a legal case that argues its yes/no bets on real-world events are futures contracts, and the relevant regulator—the Commodity Futures Trading Commission—agreed in 2020. Many states are now suing major prediction markets, arguing this legal case is faulty and obscures the true substance of the business: gambling.

How prediction markets differ from sportsbooks matters for regulation

There are a number of differences and similarities between sportsbooks and prediction markets, despite both allowing people to bet on outcomes for sports-related events. For instance, prediction markets typically earn revenue through transaction fees rather than taking directional exposure to outcomes.

Modern prediction markets—the platforms where people can trade bets that pay out depending on certain event outcomes—started in Iowa in 1988.

Prediction markets help people bet on almost anything—which can be controversial

Critics point to incidents such as traders placing bets on the Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's capture and the two people in Israel who were charged on suspicion of using classified information to place bets about military actions.

The 2024 US presidential election was a breakthrough moment for prediction markets

Founded in 2018 by MIT graduates, Kalshi won a federal appeals court ruling in October 2024 that allowed it to offer election contracts in the US. When prediction markets predicted President Donald Trump's win (more accurately than most polls), prediction markets were thrust into the public eye.

The idea that the median estimate of a group can be more accurate than individual expert estimates is called the 'wisdom of the crowd,' and dates back to the early 1900s.

Kalshi is the first regulated prediction market in the US

Two migrant MIT students, Luana Lara Lopes and Tarek Mansour, shared an interest in hedging against uncertainty—from election outcomes to the Oscar awards. They fought hard for regulatory approval and their company now has a valuation in the billions. The platform has brought prediction markets into the mainstream.

Prediction markets have their own lingo that's an amalgamation of Gen Z and Gen Alpha slang

For instance, if you've been out-maneuvered by another trader, you've been "mogged." A "rulescuck" is someone who is a stickler for betting market rules and may try to win on a technicality.

The CEOs of the two top prediction markets have a fierce rivalry

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan are both billionaire CEOs of the top two prediction markets—but they don't exactly get along. For instance, Mansour reportedly does not say the word "Polymarket" out loud, referring to it as the "non-American, unregulated platform."

Kalshi announced a partnership with CNN in 2025

The partnership included an integration of Kalshi's prediction markets data across CNN's network programming. For instance, certain TV segments on CNN could show a scrolling banner detailing the odds of event contracts on the exchange.

Donald Trump's Truth Social social media platform is launching a prediction market

Named "Truth Predict," the cryptocurrency-based prediction market will allow users of the Truth Social social media platform to place crypto bets on the outcome of certain events (think: sports games, the economy, and political races). Truth Social is primarily owned by President Donald Trump and his family.

Futures contracts—which are agreements to buy or sell a standardized asset at a specific future time—are the primary way commodities are bought and sold.

Futures contracts are agreements to buy or sell a standardized asset at a specific future time

When it comes to commodity trading, these legally binding agreements tend to operate on a monthly basis. Futures contracts are typically traded on futures exchanges, like those operated by CME Group and the Intercontinental Exchange.

Decoding sports-betting language

The world of sports gambling is filled with insider lingo: What's a "spread"? How about a "moneyline" or a "parlay"? This resource breaks down the jargon, helping you navigate the industry or, at least, giving you the keys to talk about it.

Commodity traders are most commonly 'hedgers' or 'speculators'

While hedgers often produce and consume physical commodities (like corn, copper, or natural gas) and use the markets to manage the price risk for those commodities, speculators provide liquidity by betting on commodity price changes.

Some experts equate prediction markets to the new crack cocaine of gambling addiction

An addiction psychiatrist at UCLA says betting apps are far more potent than traditional gambling, citing a 19-year-old patient who lost $180,000 and hadn't left campus in a year, cycling through sports bets, crypto, meme stocks, and prediction markets on his phone. This interview explores the extreme edge of the nascent industry.

Experts suggest the industry could be a $45B business

Sports betting used to primarily consist of who would win and the points spread, but the rise of online betting apps has fueled a substantial increase in parlay bets. "Existing markets are still growing at a rapid clip," said Noah Naparst, who evaluates sports-betting companies for Goldman Sachs. "So we’re not mature yet, but we’re not in the early wildcat days of the market anymore, either.”

It's tough to measure just how much the global commodities market is worth

That's partly because of all the different ways and places commodities are traded—such as futures exchanges, spot markets, and over-the-counter deals. Additionally, the same commodity can be traded multiple times in different markets, making it easy to risk duplicating trade values in calculations.

Insider trading is the practice of trading a company's securities based on material, nonpublic information.

Smart pricing algorithms can unintentionally work together to raise prices

Researchers have found that, through trial and error, algorithms designed to adjust prices based on market data can learn to mimic price-fixing tactics, even without explicit programming to do so. Over time, they "learn" that it is more profitable to avoid price wars and keep prices high when competitors lower prices.

Spot markets are where commodities intended for relatively immediate delivery are traded

Spot markets are where physical securities are exchanged for cash. Also known as cash markets or physical markets, the trades are relatively immediate—both parties agree to an immediate transfer. Currencies and securities can also be traded on spot markets.

How NFL teams mistake the values of their draft picks

The NFL draft is a highly anticipated event. Each spring football franchises take turns selecting roughly 250 players over seven rounds. Teams regularly trade draft picks to reach a certain player they expect to fall at their selection point, giving market analysts the ability to determine the value of those trades. This video explores the NFL draft market's inefficiency.

Stock options give investors the right to buy or sell a stock at an agreed-upon price and date

There are two types of options: calls, which are bets that a stock will rise (or not rise past a certain point), and puts, bets that a stock will fall (or not fall past a specific level). While stock options give investors the right to do these trades, they do not obligate buyers to follow through with them—sellers, on the other hand, must perform the option if it is exercised

Book building is widely considered the most efficient way to price securities

During the book-building process, bankers determine an IPO’s price per share, requesting bids from fund managers and other institutional investors for the number of shares they want and how much they’d be willing to pay for them.

The CME FedWatch Tool predicts the likelihood of future rate changes

It's based on federal fund futures contract prices. At a Fed meeting in July 2024, for instance, Chair Jerome Powell once again decided not to lower rates, though he said cuts could be on the table in September.

Breaking down the jargon and strategy of horse betting

Placing bets on horse racing isn't the same as a football or basketball game. You can pick a winner (win), who will come in second (place), and even third (show). And all the bets placed on a race are pooled together and divided among the winners. This Top Ten Picks video teaches the mechanics behind each bet, and shares insider tips that can lead to more informed betting choices.

What something costs is reflective of a balance in the market determined by the amount of demand relative to the supply of goods and services

Because economies are complex systems, a wide variety of issues influence this balance—including some things generally considered to be positive, like rising wages.

What are smart contracts?

Smart contracts are potentially one of the most useful tools associated with blockchain, and they can enable the transfer of everything from Bitcoin and fiat currency to goods transported around the world. Here’s what they do and why they’re likely to gain traction.

A 'position' in financial markets refers to the amount of a security or asset that an investor owns or sells short

A "long" position gains from an increase in a security's price, whereas a "short" position profits from a price drop. This article includes a detailed explanation of the term "position" as it relates to investing and financial markets.

Shorting is a high-risk and expensive investment strategy that hedge funds specialize in

Most investors buy stocks with the expectation that those stocks will be worth more tomorrow than they are today. Short selling, known as “shorting,” a stock is the opposite: The investor is betting the stock will drop in value.

A margin call is a way for traders to pay off debts by selling a security before they may be ready to do so.

'The stock market' can be loosely defined as a set of exchanges and other places where shares of public companies are bought and sold.

Call options 101

A call option is a contract that gives the option buyer the right to buy an underlying asset at a specified price within a specific time period. A call buyer profits when the underlying asset increases in price. Learn more about the financial contract and how you can use it in this article.

Carbon markets incentivize companies to cut emissions but require high carbon prices

To reduce greenhouse gas emissions, a cap-and-trade system issues a limited number of emissions permits—carbon credits—that decrease each year, cutting into a company's profits if it does not reduce emissions and must buy permits from others. However, cheap permits and minimal fines for lacking permits have reduced the system's effectiveness.

Commodity trading is regulated by the CFTC to mitigate fraud and risk

Established in 1974, the CFTC regulates these markets (including swaps, futures, and certain types of options) to protect market participants from fraud, ensure fair trading conditions, and generally reduce financial risk.

Vitalik Buterin’s current thoughts on Ethereum

Vitalik Buterin isn’t just the founder of Ethereum—he’s also a blogger. In this blog post from late last year, Buterin discusses some of his favorite applications built on Ethereum: prediction markets like Polymarket, where users can bet crypto on the outcome of events like elections. Buterin argues that prediction markets also act as news sites for non-bettors, opening the floodgates for many different kinds of info-based apps on Ethereum. Read the post here.

Play a game that reveals if investors with a crystal ball make better trades

The "crystal ball" game reveals how well you would do trading stocks and bonds if you could see the front page of the Wall Street Journal one day in advance.

Visualize stock market's volatility between 2017 and 2025.

A cost basis is an asset's purchase price after accounting for certain other factors

If you bought a share for $5 and sold it for $140, your capital gain would be $135...on paper, at least. In reality, the math is fuzzier. Capital gains are actually the difference between the sale price of the asset and your cost basis.

How exchanges like the Chicago Mercantile act as trading referees

Chicago's Mercantile Exchange emphasizes futures contracts on commodities. This podcast episode breaks down how exchanges actually work, make money, and streamline the market.

Private companies are often harder to value than public companies

That's partly because there isn't readily available stock information, and financial accounting is kept behind closed doors. Typically, determining the value of a private company involves, among other things, closely comparing the private company with its competitors.

Some experts and investors think short selling—a strategy in which investors bet that a stock will drop in value—helps keep the market healthy.

Tesla short sellers benefited from the company's poor performance in 2025

Tesla was widely considered the most-shorted stock until 2024, despite consistent short-seller losses. Between 2016 and 2020, short sellers reportedly lost more than $11B as Tesla's stock price continued climbing. However, long-held short positions began paying out in 2025 as Musk's foray into politics and his eventual feud with President Trump hurt Tesla's stock performance. In 2025, Tesla short sellers made more than $10B.

Dive deep into the numbers that shape each YC deal

Y Combinator invests $500K into each company in any given batch. $125K of that investment converts into a fixed 7% in ownership of the startup, and the other $375K is invested on something called an uncapped MFN safe. YC explains what that means and more terms of the deal in a detailed article on their website

Investors need a 'margin account' to short sell stock

Margin accounts are leveraged accounts through brokerage firms that allow investors to make trades without the full amount of capital on hand. Similar to a secured loan, margin accounts often require some form of collateral and typically have a cap on how much investors can borrow. However, trading with a margin account is much riskier than a traditional investment account. Fees and charged interest are due on margin accounts, regardless of trade performance, meaning it's possible for investors to lose more money than just their initial investment.