Donald Trump's Truth Social social media platform is launching a prediction market

The 2024 US presidential election was a breakthrough moment for prediction markets

Founded in 2018 by MIT graduates, Kalshi won a federal appeals court ruling in October 2024 that allowed it to offer election contracts in the US. When prediction markets predicted President Donald Trump's win (more accurately than most polls), prediction markets were thrust into the public eye.

Prediction market Kalshi's CEO Tarek Mansour ​​has said that prediction markets are similar to the stock market—except instead of buying and selling shares of companies, users buy and sell "yes" or "no" on whether an event is going to happen or not.

Prediction markets—the platforms where users can trade bets that pay out depending on certain event outcomes—have faced questions about insider trading.

Prediction markets and sports betting are not forms of investing, despite how some fans portray them.

Modern prediction markets—the platforms where people can trade bets that pay out depending on certain event outcomes—started in Iowa in 1988.

Prediction markets help people bet on almost anything—which can be controversial

Critics point to incidents such as traders placing bets on the Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's capture and the two people in Israel who were charged on suspicion of using classified information to place bets about military actions.

The idea that the median estimate of a group can be more accurate than individual expert estimates is called the 'wisdom of the crowd,' and dates back to the early 1900s.

How prediction markets differ from sportsbooks matters for regulation

There are a number of differences and similarities between sportsbooks and prediction markets, despite both allowing people to bet on outcomes for sports-related events. For instance, prediction markets typically earn revenue through transaction fees rather than taking directional exposure to outcomes.

Prediction markets convinced regulators they're not gambling, but exchanging commodity futures contracts

Kalshi built a legal case that argues its yes/no bets on real-world events are futures contracts, and the relevant regulator—the Commodity Futures Trading Commission—agreed in 2020. Many states are now suing major prediction markets, arguing this legal case is faulty and obscures the true substance of the business: gambling.

Donald Trump redefined presidential communication in the social media age

Trump used platforms like Twitter (now X) to bypass traditional media, announce policy, and confront opponents directly. His online presence reshaped political messaging, blurred the line between official and personal communication, and transformed how presidents engage the public.

Some experts equate prediction markets to the new crack cocaine of gambling addiction

An addiction psychiatrist at UCLA says betting apps are far more potent than traditional gambling, citing a 19-year-old patient who lost $180,000 and hadn't left campus in a year, cycling through sports bets, crypto, meme stocks, and prediction markets on his phone. This interview explores the extreme edge of the nascent industry.

The prices on prediction markets reflect how the collective forecasts future outcomes.

Use a prediction market profit or loss calculator

In order to calculate how much someone would make from a specific trade on a prediction market, this calculator asks for the purchase price of a given "yes" or "no" prediction, the number of contracts the trader plans to purchase, and more.

Mark Zuckerberg apologized for not doing enough to stop the spread of misinformation on Facebook ahead of the 2016 election

Leading up to the 2016 election, misinformation about both Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, and even Barack Obama flourished on Facebook. In the final stretch leading up to the election, more than one-quarter of Americans visited a fake news site supporting either Trump or Clinton. Many fake news studies have widely different methods of measuring and assessing the impact of fake news, so the actual impact it had in the 2016 election is unclear.

The CEOs of the two top prediction markets have a fierce rivalry

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan are both billionaire CEOs of the top two prediction markets—but they don't exactly get along. For instance, Mansour reportedly does not say the word "Polymarket" out loud, referring to it as the "non-American, unregulated platform."

By 2022, Meta was betting strongly on a metaverse strategy for its products

Moving beyond the controversies over fueling misinformation, division, and harm worldwide, Mark Zuckerberg expressed optimism about technology's role in connecting people. Meta's multibillion-dollar investments in integrative AR and VR technologies have further evolved its founder's vision.

Play a game that reveals if investors with a crystal ball make better trades

The "crystal ball" game reveals how well you would do trading stocks and bonds if you could see the front page of the Wall Street Journal one day in advance.

About 17% of US adults said they had invested, traded, or used cryptocurrency in 2023.

Kalshi is the first regulated prediction market in the US

Two migrant MIT students, Luana Lara Lopes and Tarek Mansour, shared an interest in hedging against uncertainty—from election outcomes to the Oscar awards. They fought hard for regulatory approval and their company now has a valuation in the billions. The platform has brought prediction markets into the mainstream.

Contract prices on prediction markets are generally interpreted as implied probabilities

For example, if a contract trading is at $0.65, that could be read as the market assigning a 65% probability to that event occurring. The most common format for prediction markets is winner-take-all: The contract settles at $1 if the event occurs, or $0 if it doesn't.

Vitalik Buterin’s current thoughts on Ethereum

Vitalik Buterin isn’t just the founder of Ethereum—he’s also a blogger. In this blog post from late last year, Buterin discusses some of his favorite applications built on Ethereum: prediction markets like Polymarket, where users can bet crypto on the outcome of events like elections. Buterin argues that prediction markets also act as news sites for non-bettors, opening the floodgates for many different kinds of info-based apps on Ethereum. Read the post here.

Crypto history's is full of bizarre stories

Digital currencies based solely on misspellings of former President Joe Biden’s name have skyrocketed, and backers of a token based on a Shiba Inu wearing a hat raised $690K to get their logo on the Las Vegas Sphere.

What Trump's executive order provides TikTok

Just a few days into his second term, President Trump paused the US law banning TikTok through an executive order. While that may sound like an all-out reversal, it's more of a time out, granting ByteDance an additional 75 days to find a US-based seller. This resource breaks down what Trump's executive order provides the Chinese company and what it might mean for the future of the app.

What Trump's second 75-day extension means for TikTok sale

After President Trump took office in January 2025, he offered TikTok the opportunity to find a US company to buy the app within 75 days. In the meantime, the app continued operating. In April, Trump extended that deadline by an additional 75 days. This BBC article breaks down what that means for the company's potential buyers and for its users.

President Donald Trump's 2025 address drew 36.6 million viewers

President Trump's audience was about 13% higher than President Biden's 2024 address, but it fell short of Donald Trump's first-term State of the Union viewership, which consistently topped 37 million and peaked near 48 million in 2017.

Want to begin trading in cryptocurrency? Check out these exchanges

Explore the current cryptocurrency market. CoinMarketCap tracks 242 spot exchanges where various cryptocurrencies are traded. Newbie and experienced traders will find timely exchange ranks and scores charted according to traffic, liquidity, and trading volumes. CoinMarketCap promises legitimacy in all trading volumes reported.

The 'Facebook papers' revealed the company prioritized profit over public safety

A whistleblower came forward with internal documents showing employees warned leadership about the company's role in fueling political unrest and misinformation. Systems like XCheck shielded high-profile users like President Donald Trump from normal content rules, often to avoid PR backlash.

Using cryptocurrency to turn traditional financial arrangements on their head

Cryptocurrency is poised to drastically change everything in the financial world, including financial arrangements. Decentralized finance makes it easier for virtually anyone to take advantage of financial markets without the need for a bank. However, there are new risks involved as well. Professor of Legal Studies and Business Ethics Kevin Werbach, an expert on Bitcoin and blockchains discusses it all in detail in The Conversation.

Truth joined a utopian project in the early 1840s

The Northampton Association of Education and Industry was a brief utopian community in Massachusetts that united abolitionists, reformers, and intellectuals. Truth lived and worked alongside William Lloyd Garrison and Frederick Douglass; this helped to launch her career as a public speaker and activist.

Bitcoin, the oldest and most popular cryptocurrency, is a digital cash alternative introduced in 2009 that rapidly grew in popularity and now boasts a global user base.

How to read the news on TikTok

There's plenty of news on TikTok, but that doesn't mean it's all reliable. This guide, written by a communication technology professor, breaks down the ways the app's algorithm delivers news. It also covers how users can determine whether or not a story is factual or misleading. Most strikingly, the professor warns readers that if they didn't search for a TikTok video, then "it probably found you."

Prediction market Polymarket's CEO dropped out of New York University

Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan started building Polymarket when he was 21. Polymarket has been backed by billionaire investors such as Peter Thiel and Vitalik Buterin.

The evolution of X, from startup to Musk-owned giant, reflects rapid tech shifts

Twitter began in 2006 as a side project and grew into a major global platform, widely used for news, activism, and political discourse. Despite mainstream success, it faced ongoing management turmoil, business struggles, and rising concerns over misinformation and user safety.

DOGE's claim of saving more than $64B lacks evidence

In the first month of President Donald Trump’s second term, his new Department of Government Efficiency celebrated slashing billions in federal spending and chopping away at the national debt. An article from the Poynter Institute’s fact-checking website digs into the numbers to investigate these claims.

Famed investor Ray Dalio and his wife, Barbara Dalio, have donated money to help fund new investment accounts for US children called 'Trump Accounts.'

The Dalios have committed $250 per child to 300,000 children under 10 years old in Connecticut who live in ZIP codes where the median income is less than $150K—an expected total of at least $75M. The money is designated for "Trump Accounts," or investment accounts with $1K provided to children to put towards education or starting a small business.

Ethereum Founder Vitalik Buterin was surprised by the emergence of NFTs

Scams have pervaded the NFT space and made critics question their legitimacy, but proponents believe their use cases could one day extend to real estate and credit scores.

Tesla short sellers benefited from the company's poor performance in 2025

Tesla was widely considered the most-shorted stock until 2024, despite consistent short-seller losses. Between 2016 and 2020, short sellers reportedly lost more than $11B as Tesla's stock price continued climbing. However, long-held short positions began paying out in 2025 as Musk's foray into politics and his eventual feud with President Trump hurt Tesla's stock performance. In 2025, Tesla short sellers made more than $10B.

The trillion-dollar coin is a proposed platinum coin with a face value of $1T, which could be used to reduce the national debt

This conceptual strategy was first proposed in 2011 as a potential alternative to raising the US debt ceiling. Although there were several high-profile proponents of the idea, it was eventually rejected in 2013 by Treasury Department and Federal Reserve officials.

A company called Bluprynt is combating counterfeit cryptocurrency

While some cryptocurrency advocates might argue that it's more difficult to counterfeit crypto than physical currency, some estimate that fake cryptocurrencies are losing crypto users at least $1.6B each year.

'The Simpsons' has a knack for inadvertently predicting the future

Some have noted that "The Simpsons" has accurately anticipated a number of events years before they happened, including the election of President Donald Trump, Disney buying 21st Century Fox, and Siegfried and Roy's tiger attack. This list breaks down some of the show's most uncanny inadvertent predictions.

As of 2025, an estimated $3.2B in annual revenue flows through dark web platforms

The untraceable cryptocurrency Monero is used in about 60% of transactions across more than 37 active marketplaces that sell copyrighted materials, private information, and phishing kits—tools that help bad actors more easily create fake sites to steal users' data—for financial fraud.

Crypto ETFs are driving cryptocurrency adoption

In 2024, the SEC approved ETFs that track the price of bitcoin called spot bitcoin ETFs. These funds have since significantly increased investment inflows into cryptocurrency markets.

Some venture capitalists believe cryptocurrency will revolutionize global finance

Some of the brightest minds at Andreesen-Horowitz, one of the country’s leading venture capital firms, believe the cryptocurrency ecosystem will revolutionize global finance in the coming decades. This podcast recounts, through their view, the history of crypto, how it works, and trends they see emerging in the future.

Meme stocks often have little underlying value but are fueled by crowd funding

"Meme stocks" is a phrase originating in the early 2020s, referring to companies with little underlying value who gain recognition through social media and whose stock price experiences rapid gains.

The industries ripe for disruption by blockchain and cryptocurrencies

Blockchain—what is it good for? Lots of things, it would seem. Peruse this guide from The Motley Fool site and learn about different applications and use cases for blockchain technology. Financial exchanges, real estate, insurance, voting, an gambling are just a few of the 15 applications discussed here.

Trump has extended TikTok's sale deadline three times

In 2024, US lawmakers passed a requirement for parent company ByteDance Ltd. to sell TikTok or face a ban in the country, which the company challenged in court. In early 2025, the law took effect, though President Trump paused it three separate times, affording the company more time to sell.

Memecoins are cryptocurrency created around popular 'memes,' or viral internet jokes

Dogecoin is perhaps the most famous "memecoin." While they tend to be more volatile than other types of crypto (after all, they're often created due to ephemeral trends), that doesn't mean they can't be valuable: Dogecoin is currently one of the most valuable cryptocurrencies in the world.

The ease of deepfakes creation may soon overwhelm our sense of digital truth

Shortly after the public release of related technology in 2017, some experts saw the technical limitations of deepfakes as preventing them from becoming widespread tools of disinformation. Since then, the neural networks behind diffusion models and generative AI have eliminated the barriers to creating convincing synthetic media for propaganda.

President Trump invoked the Monroe Doctrine in 2025, announcing a new 'Trump Corollary'

On Dec. 2, 2025, the 202nd anniversary of the doctrine, President Donald Trump issued a proclamation reaffirming US "dominance" in the Western Hemisphere. His administration's national security strategy officially codified the "Trump Corollary," stating that the US would prevent non-hemispheric powers from gaining strategic influence in the Americas.

Contestants in an annual extreme sports competition are encouraged to use steroids and growth hormone, using athletes as guinea pigs.