One theory suggests real estate markets follow a predictable 18-year pattern

The lifecycle of a financial bubble often follows a predictable pattern

Economist Hyman Minsky originated what became a five-stage model of an economic bubble: a new “displacement,” a rapid boom, euphoric speculation, early profit-taking by insiders, and finally panic selling. From Japan’s 1980s real-estate surge to the 2008 crash, the pattern repeats across eras and assets.

The US has been through 34 recessions since 1854

From 1855 to 2020, the average US recession lasted for an average of 17 months. But in the 20th and 21st centuries, the average recession length has shortened, decreasing to 14 months.

An inverted yield curve has preceded every recession that’s occurred in the last 50 years

Prolonged yield curve inversions can predict recessions, but even brief inversions can cause investors to react with knee-jerk reactions.

Indicators of economic bubbles include euphoric narratives and extreme valuations.

Learn about what causes economic bubbles, including how forces like cheap credit, soaring optimism, and feedback loops push asset prices far beyond fundamentals—until a single shock triggers panic, selling, and a rapid collapse.

The stock market has crashed many times throughout history

Have you ever wondered how long it takes the market to recover after a crash? This chart outlines major stock market dips throughout history and tracks how many days it took for the market to recover.

Visualizing decades of stock market performance

Stock markets and the indexes that track their biggest companies tend to ebb and flow, with long growth periods punctuated by shorter recessions. Track the 60-year history of one of the most common stock market indexes, the S&P 500, with this data visualization. The chart highlights the long-term durability of markets despite appearance of short-term volatility.

Dow Theory laid the groundwork for modern market analysis

Developed by Charles Dow in the late 19th century, Dow Theory argued that markets move in trends. Its principles—confirmation, trends and volume—still influence technical analysis today.

Watch Ray Dalio explain how the economy works

Dalio describes the economy as a machine that runs on three main cycles: productivity growth, the short-term debt cycle, and the long-term debt cycle. Dalio says layering these three cycles on top of each other essentially creates a template for understanding changes in the economy.

'Tulip mania,' the 1630s Dutch craze where rare bulbs were briefly traded like luxury assets, may have been the first financial bubble—and it still shapes markets today.

Recessions are considered to be inevitable by modern economic standards

Recessions are caused by imbalances in the market and are guaranteed to happen in capitalist systems, but predicting them is a complex task.

Housing 'starts'— new constructions—signal the health and future of real estate

The Federal Reserve Economic Data, or FRED, tracks monthly “housing starts,” the number of new residential construction projects being built. Some argue this data can serve as an economic barometer.

The 'Lindy effect' is a theory that says the longer things that don't physically wear out (like ideas, brands, or institutions) have been around, the more likely they are to exist for longer.

In 2007, Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, warned of an impending financial crisis.

Roughly 10% of US apartments were owned by private equity firms as of 2025.

More than $2.6B has been laundered through US real estate in the past 20 years

All cash real estate transactions don't require extensive background and identity checks, creating a loophole for criminals who would otherwise be flagged for suspicious behavior to clean large amounts of money with one purchase. Real estate prices are easily manipulated and can be used to generate more income by renting the space, making it an attractive and common tool for money laundering.

Markets have always recovered and hit new highs following crashes

The crash that preceded the Great Depression was the most severe the US has ever experienced. It was 28 times worse than the downturn that followed the Cuban Missile Crisis.

The dot-com stock bubble taught Howard Marks about markets

Annual investment letters from Howard Marks, the billionaire cofounder of top distressed debt shop Oaktree Capital Management, are required reading on Wall Street. The prolific writer and investor explains the distinction between the folly of trying to time the market and the necessity of paying attention to market cycles. The difference makes all the difference in returns.

When consumers think an economic downturn is looming, the 'lipstick index' economic theory argues that sales of more affordable luxury items (such as lipstick) go up.

Real estate investment trusts help give portfolios more exposure to real estate

Also known as a REIT, a real estate investment trust is a type of company that invests in a portfolio of real estate, such as apartment buildings or malls. Investors can buy shares of the REIT to participate in its portfolio’s gains and losses.

Prediction markets and sports betting are not forms of investing, despite how some fans portray them.

Real estate is grouped into broad categories: residential, commercial and industrial

Other categories of real estate include raw land and “special use” real estate, which includes cemeteries. Technically speaking, real estate is considered an alternative investment.

US homeownership rates declined from the start of the Great Recession through 2016.

Modern prediction markets—the platforms where people can trade bets that pay out depending on certain event outcomes—started in Iowa in 1988.

AI expert shows the cyclical nature of AI hype—in 1988

Rodney Brooks wrote several decades ago about the boom and bust cycles of artificial intelligence. Starting from the 1950s excitement over ENIAC's multiplication through the second launch of then-novel neural networks, Brooks suggests AI progresses incrementally despite the hype.

In 2024, US private equity posted an 8.1% return

Tracked by Cambridge Associates, 2024 performance saw limited partner distributions overtake contributions for the first time in years. Cambridge Associates, a leader in the space, typically uses a 2.0x+ MOIC (Multiple on Invested Capital) as a benchmark for top-quartile PE fund success.

Retail investing by the numbers

When average Americans began pouring into the stock market, Wall Street wasn’t sure if its new guests were there to stay. But at the end of 2023, Public confidently declared that retail investors “weren’t going anywhere” after 30 million new individuals began buying and selling stock. Download the report to learn more here.

The pros and cons of long-term renting

Soaring mortgage rates and inflated home prices have led more consumers to opt to rent instead of buying, becoming “forever renters.” This article weighs the costs and benefits of renting instead of buying. Benefits include flexibility, less upkeep, and potentially lower expenses, while downsides include less stability and reliance on landlords. Read this article and decide whether homeownership or renting is the choice for you.

Roughly $5T of stimulus money flooded the economy during the pandemic

Recessions can last anywhere from months to years. To encourage economic growth, governments use policy levers such as lowering interest rates or introducing a stimulus. Economists credit massive stimulus funds for helping the economy quickly recover from a recession during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Explore a breakdown of the US gross domestic product, including GDP's growth over time, the GDP of individual states, and which industries contribute the most to US GDP.

The men’s underwear index predicts recessions based on men’s underwear sales

Internet users have been using some nontraditional indicators to predict whether a recession is imminent, including the return of so-called “recession pop.”

A recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP, but in practice, these economic phenomena are more complex.

Some institutional investors are growing wary of private equity, as certain investments underperform traditional market indices

Private equity often attracts investors who can afford to tie up capital for long periods of time in exchange for higher returns than traditional investments. For many years, private equity at least tracked with the S&P 500 in terms of returns to investors, but in 2024 and 2025, it underperformed and posted declining returns.

Some experts and investors think short selling—a strategy in which investors bet that a stock will drop in value—helps keep the market healthy.

Read about the evolution of the S&P 500 and its recession recovery

Since the S&P 500 is considered a bellwether index (meaning it represents the health of the US economy), its value is important for investors in both bull and bear markets. The S&P 500 has been impacted by recessions and downturns, from the 1970s oil crisis to the dot-com crash of the early 2000s.

The 2024 US presidential election was a breakthrough moment for prediction markets

Founded in 2018 by MIT graduates, Kalshi won a federal appeals court ruling in October 2024 that allowed it to offer election contracts in the US. When prediction markets predicted President Donald Trump's win (more accurately than most polls), prediction markets were thrust into the public eye.

A V-shaped recovery from a recession is the most common kind

When charted, recession recoveries resemble letters including V, U, W, L, and K. For instance, an L-shaped recovery involves a steep decline that slowly reverses.

Real estate investment firms handle enormous, complex real estate transactions

In the large-scale projects real estate investment firms handle (such as huge commercial developments), the parties involved in a sale are more likely to be large corporate real estate developers and investors than individuals.

The private credit industry—which offers nonbank loans directly to businesses, particularly privately held midmarket companies—grew from a $250B asset class in 2010 to around $1.5T in early 2024.

Location is the most important factor for profitability in real estate investing

“Location, location, location” is a saying for a reason. From the neighborhood’s status to its proximity to its tax implications, location is among the most important factors for real estate investors to consider in transactions.

The market share of institutional investors in the US housing market is less than 1%

Institutional investors have drawn negative media attention for their purported role in limiting housing supply and driving housing unaffordability. This report separates myth from fact in the nuanced discussion around institutional investors' role in the US housing market.

Data center companies are worsening housing undersupply in some regional markets.

The idea that the median estimate of a group can be more accurate than individual expert estimates is called the 'wisdom of the crowd,' and dates back to the early 1900s.

Read about why bans on short selling are a controversial policy

Generally, short selling is legal, but regulations often restrict short positions when a stock has experienced a sharp price decline (more than 10% in one day). However, negative feedback loops in times of financial crisis have given short selling a bad reputation. The government has temporarily banned short selling during previous market downturns—like The Great Recession of 2008 and the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic—but experts argue whether those bans actually improved market stability or just distorted prices.

Watch Ray Dalio break down his 'holy grail' investment strategy

As a hedge fund manager, Dalio's investment strategy relies on insulating investments from economic downturns. To do this, Dalio attempts to diversify investments as much as possible while considering the correlation between industries and markets.

Monaco is the world's most expensive real estate market

New York City was the world's second-most expensive real estate market, and Hong Kong was the third. A visual ranks the top 20 most expensive real estate markets in the world at the time.

How interest rates affect homebuying

Rising interest rates impact every aspect of buying a home. This five-minute article gives a high-level overview of the relationship between the housing market and interest rates.

Charting the rise of the American McMansion

US homes are growing larger and more luxurious, with Census Bureau data revealing a rise in four-bedroom houses equipped with air conditioning. Experts say the trend of elevated home prices is expected to continue.

Historically, borrowing money from other people to purchase property was common until private financing companies—primarily building and loan associations—stepped in to offer mortgages to buyers.

The alternative investments industry is expected to grow significantly in the coming years

More specifically, as of 2024, the alternative investments industry was expected to grow to more than $24T in assets in 2028—up from roughly $15T in 2022.